Treasuries Decline for Fifth Straight Session
Treasuries marginally extended their losing streak Monday after a halting attempt at recovery on news that the National Bureau of Economic Research finally sanctioned a recession eight months after the fact, post-dating it to March, 2001. There was no data to speak of, though anecdotal evidence of good initial seasonal retail demand following the Thanksgiving holiday. Bond prices initially jumped on the NBER call, with demand for cash 10-year notes from a "real money" fund investor rotating out of European sovereign paper and a muted start for stocks.
Technicals remain upwardly impaired for the December bond, which risks a test of 102-21 September 21 lows after failing to clear 104-20 Friday highs. The yield curve flattened as ready sellers of the front-end reemerged, with the two-year note and 30-year bond spread narrowing below +221 basis-point, five-month channel support and may continue to collapse until the +209.5 basis-point 100-day moving average. St. Louis Fed's Poole called the U.S. recession "decidedly atypical," held out hope for recovery, but fretted about "unhappy surprises." More Fedspeak comes from Poole, Meyer and Moskow Tuesday.
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