Lower Prices Likely

Breadth, price momentum and options volatility measures suggest some losses in the next several days

By Paul Cherney

On a purely technical level: sideways to lower prices seem likely based on studies of breadth, price momentum and the VIX, which issued another signal today suggesting that the odds should favor as few as one or two down days, possibly five days ending in net losses (meaning that at the end of a five-trade day period, there would be a net loss from today's close -- it doesn't mean every single day is a loser).

I still expect to see the DJIA close above 9400 before this upleg is ever, before the end of October.

Immediate S&P 500 resistance is 1073-1096.94 with a focus of resistance 1085-1096. - Intraday charts show a thin shelf of support 1059-1056, but more substantial support is not apparent until 1046-1026.

Immediate NASDAQ support is a shelf: 1586-1563 with a focus of support 1581-1573 (intraday) another layer of support which overlaps is 1568-1545. More substantial support is 1528-1458 with a focus 1503-1472. The index has immediate intraday resistance 1618-1642 There remains a strong focus of resistance in the 1584-1605 area which has been capping closes, this are on the chart might start acting like the first line of support.

Cherney is market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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