Gold Fundamentals Still Strong
By Leo Larkin
Gold futures -- and stocks of gold mining companies -- sold off after Wednesday's Bank of England auction of gold reserves. S&P believes the recent drop in the price of the metal - and of stocks of producers -- reflects lower lease rates and a sell-off in the Chicago CRB Commodities Index.
S&P thinks a break below the recent low price of $252 per ounce reached in August 1999 is unlikely, and that any such break is unsustainable since the current price is some $100/oz. below replacement cost.
Fundamentals for gold mining stocks, and the metal itself, are positive on lower output, weak financial markets and a deficit in supply versus demand.
S&P is still positive on selected gold stocks and has 4 STARS (accumulate) recommendations on Barrick Gold (ABX ) and Newmont Mining (NEM ).
S&P also has 3 STARS (hold) recommendations on Homestake Mining (HM ) and Placer Dome Inc. (PDG ).
Larkin is an equity analyst for Standard and Poor's