Sitting on the Fence
By Paul Cherney
With retail sales and PPI due on Friday, Thursday could be another day of hesitation. I think the equity market has run out of sellers in the short-term. Downside should be limited to a retest of the lows seen on Wednesday morning (not expected). This would mean downside risk for the Nasdaq to print 1934.67. The S&P 500 could undercut Wednesday's low, but buyers should prevent prices from moving below the 1139 level.
Wednesday's price and volume action was just okay. Not enough of the elements I wanted to see for a reversal day came together in the ways I am used to seeing them converge but there were enough buyers to prevent a full scale sell-off so that might have established a short-term bottom for prices. While the downside looks limited, upside is limited too, probably to brick wall resistance levels mentioned below. There still has not been a short-covering rally, it would probably take a Nasdaq price move above the 1985 to spark some earnest short-covering.
Nasdaq: Immediate intraday resistance is 1974-1986 then 1994-2016. End-of-day charts show NASDAQ resistance in the 2039-2104 area with a focus 2088-2101. The next resistance is a brick wall at 2137-2181.05.
The Nasdaq has a layer of support at 1961.57-1844, Wednesday's price action has established the 1961-1934 area as immediate support.
Immediate S&P 500 resistance is 1184-1202 then 1207-1218, there is a brick wall of resistance in the 1227-1240 area.
Immediate S&P 500 support is now 1170-1139 and this area should hold if tested, Wednesday's low print was 1168.46.
Cherney is Market Analyst for Standard & Poor's