Odds Favor Higher Close Monday

The Nasdaq has reached short-term oversold levels

By Paul Cherney

The Nasdaq is at oversold levels (short-term) which shift the odds to favor a positive close in Monday's session. Obviously, I have no idea whether any major companies are going to issue earnings warnings between Friday's close and Monday's open, (which would affect price action), but the technical picture remains the same (right or wrong): odds favor higher closes on Monday. A dip in the morning to test the sub-2000 low established in Friday's market cannot be ruled out, but just as markets can't go up every single day; markets can't go down every single day, either. (And the Nasdaq has been down for 6 consecutive days.)

The Nasdaq has a price gap created by the Apr. 18 surge at the open. The price gap was 1995.91 through 1941.57 and part of that gap was filled by Friday's low print of 1992.39 so the gap now stands 1992.39 through 1941.57, this area represents support. There is a good chance that this gap will get filled before the end of the earnings warning season. (There is no rule that price gaps have to get filled.)

The short-term oversold condition of the market has pushed the odds a favor higher prices on Monday, but they offer no implications for price action during the rest of the week. If Monday is higher it might just be a one-day wonder fueled by unwinding of hedges used in Friday's Triple Witch.

The Nasdaq has immediate (intraday) resistance in the 2042-2079.30 then 2105-2124. Within the 2042-2079 resistance area there are two fouces of resistance 2043-2057 and 2063-2079.

The S&P 500 now has support 1212-1184. Immediate resistance is 1235-1265.

I will be taking a vacation day on Monday June 18, 2001. Cherney on the Markets will return Tuesday, June 19.

Cherney is Market Analyst for Standard & Poor's

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