More Nasdaq Gains Likely

The odds favor another two to four trade days of gains

By Paul Cherney

The price and volume action in Tuesday's session has increased the odds to favor another 2 to 4 trade days of gains for the Nasdaq. More could follow if the technical signs continue to improve, but there should still be some reluctance to commit ahead of the earnings warning season.

The Nasdaq has a thick (but not brick wall) ledge of resistance in the 2247-2282 area and today was the first move toward this zone. Another move higher on Wednesday is likely but it will take more commitment as measured by some more volume to exceed the 2282 level. The internals (on a relative basis), look good and I would rather err on the side of expecting higher prices rather than worry about the downside for now. Immediate NASDAQ support is 2207-2170. Then considerable support is 2165-2101. If the index is really going to bolster bullish confidence, then a minor retracement in price in Wednesday's market should not undercut the 2221-2203.82 level for more than just 3 or 4 minutes without attracting buyers.

Barring a catastrophic headline, it would be better for the index to see some weakness in the first 10 to fifteen minutes of trading in the morning rather than bolting higher at the open (usually).

The S&P 500 is testing immediate resistance in the 1253-1295 area. Tuesday's intraday price action has established a small but importaant shelf of resistance (intraday) in the 1284-1286.62 area. Immediate support is 1283-1270, then 1265-1254.

Cherney is Market Analyst for Standard & Poor's

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