Upside and Downside Appear Limited

The market may not advance much further ahead of earnings confession season

By Paul Cherney

I don't think the markets can establish an advance which just keeps trending higher. There should be some hesitancy to commit ahead of the earnings confession season which is just around the corner (with Reg FD, any day of the week can have earnings warnings, but the traditional buildup of announcements usually starts in the second week of June).

Immediate resistance for the DJIA begins with prints of 12,250 and higher, there is a focus of resistance in the 12,400-12,750 area. (The record high close for the DJIA was 12,722.98 on Jan 14, 2000.)

Immediate support for the Nasdaq is 2171-2156, then 2125-2109. The Nasdaq has established a well-defined wall of resistance in the 2187-2233 area. This is part of the broader band of resistance in the 2174-2233 area. The next layer of resistance above 2233 is directly overhead in the 2242-2356 with a focus of resistance 2253-2310. Unless there is a headline of undeniably bullish importance, I think that the best the Nasdaq can do on this short-term advance (the next couple of trade days) is a print at or above the 2233 level. Downside is limited.

The S&P 500 has immediate closing support in the 1273-1253 area. The next substantial resistance does not occur until 1300-1341. A likely spot (short-term) for this initial leg up to run out of momentum is prints in the 1311-1339 area.

Paul Cherney is Market Analyst for Standard & Poor's

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