Expect Some Profit-Taking

Some sort of digestion of Wednesday's huge gains could happen on Thursday

By Paul Cherney

I still think the trend for the next couple of weeks will be higher, but I expect to see some profit-taking over the next couple of trade days. If there is one thing the bear market has taught people, profits aren't profits unless you sell out of a long position and that potential driver of psychology could be at work on Thursday.

The last time the Fed made a surprise move was Jan. 3, 2001 (granted, we were at higher levels and more strained valuations) but, in the 3 trade days after the rate cut of Jan 3rd, 2001, the Nasdaq retraced about 88% of its Jan. 3 gains and the S&P 500 retraced almost all of them.

The volume was huge and there will be more to the upside to come, but some sort of digestion of the gains could happen on Thursday.

Immediate (intraday) support for the Nasdaq is now 2022-1920. The Nasdaq has immediate (intraday) resistance in the 2097-2130 area. On a more intermediate term basis (the next couple of weeks), the Nasdaq is testing a band of considerable resistance 2071-2244. There is a focus of resistance within the 2071-2244 area at 2143-2182.

The S&P 500 has immediate support at 1193-1158. The index has immediate resistance at 1253-1273.

Cherney is Market Analyst for Standard & Poor's

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