Mixed Signals

The markets should move higher in the next several days -- but the next few weeks could bring a test of recent lows

By Paul Cherney

I am getting mixed signals right now. I cannot rule out and even expect a minor advance which lasts 5 to 10 tradedays, but at the same time, studies I have done on the VIX strongly suggest that at some time within the next 5 weeks, the S&P 500 should undercut and close below the 1117.58 level and I think if that kind of weakness were to unfold that the NASDAQ would also be susceptible to lower prices.

The Nasdaq is within a layer of support which runs 1930-1770. The index has immediate (intraday) resistance in the 1825-1877 level, there is a focus of resistance 1839-1857. The next layer of resistance is 1865-1893.

Immediate support for the Nasdaq is 1843-1794. If prices do move beneath 1794 and spend more than 3 or 4 minutes there without garnering buying interest then the market could falter to print near 1770. The 1815-1770 area represents good support but if 1770 fails, prints near 1715 cannot be ruled out.

The S&P 500 is within a band of resistance which runs 1136-1190.

Immediate support for the S&P 500 is 1150-1136 then 1142-1117 which makes the 1142-1138 area a focus of support. The index is testing immediate (intraday) resistance which is 1158-1182 within this zone is a focus of resistance 1166-1180.

Note: On Mar. 22, I had a signal trip which historically has very high odds (5 out of 5 since 1986) that the current advance in the S&P 500 will ultimately rollover and undercut the 1117.58 level on a closing basis. This signal usually sees the undercut within 6 weeks.

Cherney is Market Analyst for Standard & Poor's

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