Table: A Poor Predictor of Spending

REAL CONSUMER REAL DURABLE CONFIDENCE* SPENDING** SPENDING**

Mar. '90-Jan. '91 -50% -1.8% -13.1% Mar. '91-Feb. '92 -42 6.4 14.8 June '92-Oct. '92 -25 5.8 10.1 Dec. '92-June '93 -25 4.0 15.2 June '98-Oct. '98 -14 4.9 23.9 May '00-Feb. '01 -26 ? ?

* Based on the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index ** Annual rate of growth in quarter when confidence hits low

Data: Conference Board, Standard & Poor's DRI, BusinessWeek

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