Slowdown: Not If, But How Long

Why sluggishness may linger

In early December, most economists still saw a soft landing ahead for the economy. Now, following a spate of downbeat economic news, expert opinion has swung toward the view that either an outright recession or something approaching it is unfolding, and the critical question has become whether the slowdown will be V-shaped or U-shaped--that is, relatively short- or long-lived.

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