The Myth Of The Minimum Wage
Old myths die hard. Old economic theories die even harder. Remember the one about inflation rising as unemployment falls? How about productivity dropping as the business cycle ages? Or the U.S. is a mature economy doomed to slow growth? One old favorite is that higher taxes inevitably lead to recession. These days, none of these theories appears to work. A new economy driven by high technology and globalization seems to be changing old economic relationships. But one economic shibboleth still remains popular: the bane of minimum wages.
Congress is debating whether to raise the minimum wage from $5.15 to $6.15. Opponents of the bill cite reams of economic research showing that minimum-wage hikes curtail demand for cheap labor. Like the trade-off between employment and inflation once said to be inherent in the Phillips curve, higher minimum wages are supposed to lead to fewer jobs. Not today. In a fast-growth, low-inflation economy, higher minimum wages raise income, not unemployment.
For proof, look no further than the minimum-wage hike of 1996-97. The two-stage hike of 90 cents raised the wages of nearly 10 million employees. Nearly three-quarters of these were adults, and half the people worked full-time. In 1996, the unemployment rate was 5.4%. Today, it is 4.2%.
The economy is evolving at a tremendous clip--shedding its old skin before our eyes. In this ever-changing environment, the best policy aims at increasing flexibility and options. Keep markets free, promote growth and entrepreneurship, and open the doors to opportunity for all participants. A higher minimum wage can be an engine for upward mobility. When employees become more valuable, employers tend to boost training and install equipment to make them more productive. Higher wages at the bottom often lead to better education for both workers and their children.
In the New Economy, it often makes sense to leave old economic nostrums behind and take prudent risks. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, for example, has withstood pressure to raise interest rates in the face of strong economic growth. Traditional theory said that inflation follows fast growth. It hasn't. Greenspan bravely took a chance, and America has profited from higher growth. Congress, for its part, has withstood pressure to allow states to impose sales taxes on the Internet. Economic theory says this is harmful because it creates an unfair competitive advantage. But it is the right policy because it nurtures a pervasive technology that is driving the economy.
It is time to set aside old assumptions about the minimum wage, as well. We don't know how low unemployment can go before inflation is once again triggered. But Greenspan is testing the limits. We don't know how high the minimum wage can rise before it hurts demand for labor. But with the real minimum wage no higher than it was under President Reagan, we can afford to take prudent risks.
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