Investment Figures Of The Week

STOCKS

COMMENTARY

One week into the fourth quarter, the market mayhem shows no signs of abating.

Even record-low long-term interest rates did not cheer equity investors. The

Dow

industrials looked like a sea of strength, down only 1.3% for the week. The

real

damage is in the big technology stocks, which seem finally to have fallen to

the

bears. The NASDAQ Composite, dominated by Microsoft, Intel, Cisco Systems, and

Dell Computer, dropped 13.7% for the week. Looking abroad, the only bright

spot

was Japan, where stocks rallied and the yen soared.

Investment Figures of the Week
Investment Figures of the Week
      
                                                                     % change
      U.S. MARKETS                                      Latest    Week      Year
      Dow Jones Industrials                             7741.7    -1.3      -4.4
      NASDAQ Combined Composite                         1462.6   -13.7     -16.0
      S&P MidCap 400                                     285.3    -7.1     -15.7
      S&P SmallCap 600                                   133.7   -11.5     -30.3
      S&P SuperComposite 1500                            203.6    -5.0      -3.1
      
                                                                     % change
      SECTORS                                           Latest    Week      Year
      Bloomberg Information Age                         324.5     -8.5       4.8
      S&P Financials                                     96.3    -10.0     -17.3
      S&P Utilities                                     266.6      4.3      29.9
      PSE Technology                                    284.1    -11.2     -17.7
      
                                                                     % change
      FOREIGN MARKETS                                   Latest    Week      Year
      London (FT-SE 100)                                4828.9    -4.7      -8.2
      Frankfurt (DAX)                                   4087.8    -8.6      -6.0
      Tokyo (NIKKEI 225)                              13,825.6     3.1     -21.5
      Hong Kong (Hang Seng)                             7744.7    -1.8     -47.8
      Toronto (TSE 300)                                 5463.4    -2.7     -24.1
      Mexico City (IPC)                                 3375.4    -5.4     -36.3
      
                                                                  Week      Year
      FUNDAMENTALS                                      Latest    ago        ago
      S&P 500 Dividend Yield                            1.61%     1.52%     1.54%
      S&P 500 P/E Ratio (Last 12 mos.)                  23.7      25.0      24.5
      S&P 500 P/E Ratio (Next 12 mos.)*                 19.0      20.3      19.5
      First Call Earnings Surprise*                     9.05%     1.90%     4.88%
      
                                                                  Week
      TECHNICAL INDICATORS                              Latest    ago      Reading
      S&P 500 200-day average                           1066.6    1065.8   Negative
      Stocks above 200-day average                      19.0%     22.0%    Positive
      Options: Put/call ratio                           0.80      0.57     Positive
      Insiders: Vickers Sell/buy ratio                  0.62      0.65     Positive
      
      BEST-PERFORMING               Last                              Last 12
      GROUPS                        month%                            months%
      Gold Mining                   39.5      Drug Chains              40.4
      Regional Telephone Cos.       19.0      Regional Telephone Cos.  36.8
      Natural Gas                   18.4      Genl. Merchandise Chains 36.3
      Instrumentation               17.0      Long-Dist. Telecomms.    33.3
      Tobacco                       16.2      Electric Companies       32.9
      
      WORST-PERFORMING              Last                               Last 12
      GROUPS                        month%                             months%
      Machine Tools                 -25.6     Oil & Gas Drilling       -67.3
      Communications Equip.         -25.1     Leisure Time             -52.8
      Invest. Banking/Brkrge.       -24.8     Metals                   -49.6
      Hotels & Motels               -24.7     Oil-Well Equip. & Svcs.  -48.1
      Metal & Glass Containers      -21.1     Machine Tools            -45.6
      
      BLOOMBERG MONEY FLOW ANALYSIS
      Rebound ahead?  Stocks with most                              1-month
      significant buying on price weakness              Price       change
      Citicorp                                          85         -13 11/16
      Intel                                             79 5/8      -2 9/32
      IBM                                              119 1/4      -6 11/16
      BankAmerica                                       60 1/8      -3 1/4
      Pfizer                                            89 3/8     -11 5/16
      Procter & Gamble                                  74 1/4      -5 3/8
      
      Decline ahead?  Stocks with most                              1-month
      significant selling on price strength             Price       change
      Qwest Communications                              31 3/16       1/8
      Starbucks                                         36 15/16    3 11/16
      Adobe Systems                                     32          6 5/16
      Goodyear Tire & Rubber                            50 13/16    1 1/16
      PepsiCo                                           33 1/8      1 7/16
      Iridium World Communications-A                    34 5/8        1/4
      
      INTEREST RATES
      
                                                        Latest    Week      Year
      KEY RATES                                         week%     ago%      ago%
      MONEY MARKET FUNDS                                5.02      5.05      5.14
      90-DAY TREASURY BILLS                             4.12      4.37      5.08
      6-MONTH BANK CDS                                  4.72      4.82      5.18
      1-YEAR TREASURY BILLS                             4.23      4.41      5.42
      10-YEAR TREASURY NOTES                            4.40      4.44      6.08
      30-YEAR TREASURY BONDS                            4.86      4.98      6.36
      LONG-TERM AA INDUSTRIALS                          5.92      6.03      6.85
      LONG-TERM BBB INDUSTRIALS                         6.77      6.79      7.21
      LONG-TERM AA TELEPHONES                           6.38      6.45      7.16
      
      BLOOMBERG MUNI YIELD EQUIVALENTS
      Taxable equivalent yields on AAA-rated, tax-exempt municipal bonds, assuming a 
      31% federal tax rate.
      
                                      10-yr. bond         30-yr. bond
                                      Latest    Last      Latest    Last
                                      week      week      week      week
      
      GENERAL OBLIGATIONS             3.95%     4.14%     4.63%     4.78%
      PERCENT OF TREASURIES          89.99     93.67     95.28     96.04
      TAXABLE EQUIVALENT              5.72      6.00      6.71      6.93
      INSURED REVENUE BONDS           4.08      4.29      4.83      4.97
      PERCENT OF TREASURIES          92.95     97.36     99.39    100.06
      TAXABLE EQUIVALENT              5.91      6.22      7.00      7.20
      
      MUTUAL FUNDS
      
      EQUITY FUNDS
      
      EQUITY FUND CATEGORIES
      
      Leaders                                 Laggards
      Four-week total return          %       Four-week total return          %
      Pioneer Gold A                27.0      Kopp Emerging Growth A       -21.7
      Monterey OCM Gold             27.0      PBHG Tech. & Communs.        -21.0
      Rydex Precious Metals         26.0      Oberweis Mid-Cap             -21.0
      PIMCo Precious Metals C       25.5      PBHG Select Equity           -20.6
      Am. Cent. Global Gold         25.4      PBHG Growth                  -20.3
      
      Leaders                                 Laggards
      52-week total return            %       52-week total return            %
      Smith Barney Telecomm. Inc.   44.6      Lexington Troika Russia      -90.2
      Berger Balanced               42.4      Frontier Equity              -68.9
      Icon Telecomms. & Utilities   34.8      Vontobel Eastern Europ. Eq.  -65.1
      Galaxy II Util. Idx. Retail   32.7      Dreyfus Aggressive Growth    -64.3
      Principal Utilities A         31.0      Matthews Korea I             -64.1
      
      EQUITY FUND CATEGORIES
      
      Leaders                                 Laggards
      Four-week total return          %       Four-week total return          %
      Precious Metals               20.0      Europe                       -13.7
      Latin America                  5.1       Technology                  -12.0
      Utilities                      4.9       Small-cap Growth            -12.0
      Natural Resources              2.9       Japan                       -11.5
      Pacific/Asia ex-Japan         -0.9      Foreign                      -11.2
      
      Leaders                                 Laggards
      52-week total return            %       52-week total return            %
      Utilities                     16.0      Latin America                -53.6
      Domestic Hybrid               -1.1      Diversified Emerging Mkts.   -50.2
      Large-cap Blend               -3.7      Pacific/Asia ex-Japan        -50.1
      Large-cap Growth              -3.8      Diversified Pacific/Asia     -42.0
      Communications                -3.9      Natural Resources            -35.1
      
      All data are as of market close Wednesday, Oct. 7, 1998, unless otherwise 
      indicated. Industry groups include S&P 500 companies only.  Fundamentals, 
      technical indicators, Bloomberg money flow analysis, and mutual fund returns 
      are as of Oct. 6. For a more detailed explanation, write to us or E-mail 
      figures@businessweek.com.  NA=Not available  **Vanguard Index 500 Fund
      
      
      
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