The Week Ahead

FEDERAL BUDGET
      Monday, Oct, 23 -- The Treasury Dept. is likely to report a surplus of $8 
      billion in September, double the surplus of September, 1994. That's the median 
      forecast of economists surveyed by MMS International, one of The McGraw-Hill 
      Companies. September is the last month of the fiscal year as well as a month 
      when quarterly taxes are paid. The expected September surplus would mean that 
      the fiscal 1995 deficit totalled $163 billion, down from $203 billion in 1994.
      
      EXISTING HOME SALES
      Wednesday, Oct. 25, 8:45 a.m. -- Existing homes probably sold at an annual rate 
      of about 3.9 million in September, down from 4.1 million in August. Resales had 
      risen for four straight months before September, but the drop in mortgage 
      applications to buy a home indicates that sales finally posted a decline last 
      month. The recent rally in the bond market, though, suggests one last flurry in 
      home buying before yearend.
      
      DURABLE GOODS ORDERS
      Thursday, Oct. 26, 8:30 a.m. -- The MMS survey projects that new orders taken 
      by durable-goods producers edged up a small 0.3% in September. Durable-goods 
      producers reported a solid rise in output last month, suggesting stronger 
      demand. New orders jumped 4.8% in August.
      
      GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
      Friday, Oct. 27, 8:30 a.m. -- The economy probably grew at an annual rate of 
      2.2% in the third quarter, according to the median MMS forecast. The 
      projections range from 1.7% to 3.2%, so all economists surveyed expect that 
      growth last quarter was faster than the anemic 1.3% advance of the second 
      period. Consumer and business spending as well as construction added to growth 
      in the summer, suggesting the real final sales continued to grow above 3%. 
      Slower inventory accumulation probably dragged down the GDP gain. The GDP 
      fixed-weight deflator likely rose at an annual rate of 2.7%, little changed 
      from its 2.8% increase in the second quarter.