Business Week Index: The Week Ahead
PERSONAL INCOME Monday, July 3, 8:30 a.m. -- Personal income likely fell by 0.1% in May, says the median forecast of economists surveyed by MMS International, one of the McGraw-Hill Cos. If so, that would be the first decline in income in 11/2 years. Income rose 0.3% in April. A drop in payrolls suggests that wages and salaries were weak in May. Consumer spending likely rose 0.5% in May, after a 0.3% advance in April. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING Monday, July 3, 8:30 a.m. -- Outlays for building projects were probably unchanged in May. That's suggested by the drops in housing starts and construction jobs for the month. Spending rose by 0.4% in April, but had declined in each of the previous three months. NAPM SURVEY Monday, July 3, 10 a.m. -- The National Association of Purchasing Management's business index likely stood at 47% in June, following a 46.1% reading in May, according to the MMS survey. Both levels would be below the 50% mark, suggesting that industry is contracting. LEADING INDICATORS Thursday, July 6, 8:30 a.m. -- The government's composite index of leading indicators probably fell by 0.2% in May. Rising unemployment claims and no change in the factory workweek contributed to the weakness. The index has not risen since December, 1994. In April, it fell a steep 0.6%, raising talk of a coming recession. EMPLOYMENT Friday, July 7, 8:30 a.m. -- The MMS survey calls for a 125,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls in June. That would more than recoup the surprising 101,000 decline in jobs in May. Manufacturing, however, is expected to continue paring payrolls. The MMS economists expect factory job losses to total 10,000, on top of 56,000 layoffs in May. The June unemployment rate probably rose to 5.8%, from 5.7% in May.
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