Business Week Index: The Week Ahead

      Monday, July 3, 8:30 a.m. -- Personal income likely fell by 0.1% in May, says 
      the median forecast of economists surveyed by MMS International, one of the 
      McGraw-Hill Cos. If so, that would be the first decline in income in 11/2 
      years. Income rose 0.3% in April. A drop in payrolls suggests that wages and 
      salaries were weak in May. Consumer spending likely rose 0.5% in May, after a 
      0.3% advance in April.
      Monday, July 3, 8:30 a.m. -- Outlays for building projects were probably 
      unchanged in May. That's suggested by the drops in housing starts and 
      construction jobs for the month. Spending rose by 0.4% in April, but had 
      declined in each of the previous three months.
      Monday, July 3, 10 a.m. -- The National Association of Purchasing Management's 
      business index likely stood at 47% in June, following a 46.1% reading in May, 
      according to the MMS survey. Both levels would be below the 50% mark, 
      suggesting that industry is contracting.
      Thursday, July 6, 8:30 a.m. -- The government's composite index of leading 
      indicators probably fell by 0.2% in May. Rising unemployment claims and no 
      change in the factory workweek contributed to the weakness. The index has not 
      risen since December, 1994. In April, it fell a steep 0.6%, raising talk of a 
      coming recession.
      Friday, July 7, 8:30 a.m. -- The MMS survey calls for a 125,000 gain in nonfarm 
      payrolls in June. That would more than recoup the surprising 101,000 decline in 
      jobs in May. Manufacturing, however, is expected to continue paring payrolls. 
      The MMS economists expect factory job losses to total 10,000, on top of 56,000 
      layoffs in May. The June unemployment rate probably rose to 5.8%, from 5.7% in 
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