Business Week Index

PRODUCTION AND LEADING INDEXES
      The production index fell slightly during the week ended Jan. 21. But before 
      calculation of the four-week moving average, the index increased to 121.9, from 
      121.4. Higher lumber and coal production lifted the index.
      The leading index posted a solid increase in the latest week. The unaveraged 
      index also gained ground, reflecting higher stock prices, fewer large-business 
      failures, and a faster growth rate in M2.
      BW production index copyright 1994 Bloomberg L.P.
      BW leading index copyright 1994 by CIBCR
      
      PRODUCTION INDICATORS
                                                 LATEST      WEEK      YEARLY
                                                 WEEK        AGO       % CHG
      STEEL (1/28) thous. of net tons             2,001      1,991#     12.4
      AUTOS (1/28) units                        132,344    113,310r#   -12.8
      TRUCKS (1/28) units                       114,965     91,028r#    -9.9
      ELECTRIC POWER (1/28)
      millions of kilowatt-hrs.                  62,932     59,187#      3.2
      CRUDE-OIL REFINING (1/28)
      thous. of bbl./day                         13,404     13,553#      3.0
      COAL (1/21) thous. of net tons             21,939#    21,731      42.4
      PAPERBOARD (1/21) thous. of tons           NA         NA          NA
      PAPER (1/21) thous. of tons                NA         NA          NA
      LUMBER (1/21) millions of ft.              479.6#     464.6        1.7
      RAIL FREIGHT (1/21) billions of ton-miles   24.0#      24.2       32.6
      Sources: American Iron & Steel Institute, Ward's Automotive Reports, Edison 
      Electric Institute, American Petroleum Institute, Energy Dept., American Forest 
      & Paper Association, WWPA1, SFPA2, Association of American Railroads
      
      LEADING INDICATORS
                                                  LATEST     WEEK      YEARLY
                                                  WEEK       AGO        % CHG
      STOCK PRICES (1/27) S&P 500                 467.56     468.18     -1.4
      CORPORATE BOND YIELD, Aaa (1/27)              8.49%      8.44%    22.9
      INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES (1/27)          114.5      114.0      NA*
      BUSINESS FAILURES (1/20)                    266        299        -8.9
      REAL ESTATE LOANS (1/18) billions          $463.3     $462.4r     10.5
      MONEY SUPPLY, M2 (1/16) billions         $3,580.8   $3,572.7r      1.4
      INITIAL CLAIMS, UNEMPLOYMENT (1/14) thous.  325        354       -11.0
      Sources: Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR), Standard & 
      Poor's, Moody's, Journal of Commerce (index: 1990=100), Dun & Bradstreet 
      (failures of large companies), Federal Reserve, Labor Dept. CIBCR seasonally 
      adjusts data on business failures and real estate loans. *Historical data 
      available from CIBCR.
      
      PRICES
                                              LATEST         WEEK      YEARLY
                                              WEEK           AGO       % CHG
      GOLD (2/1) $/troy oz.                   376.250        381.450   -1.3
      STEEL SCRAP (1/31) #1 heavy, $/ton      147.00         147.00     5.4
      COPPER (1/28)  cents/lb.                146.0          145.5     61.7
      ALUMINUM (1/28)  cents/lb.              104.0          100.5     79.3
      COTTON (1/28) strict low middling
      1-1/16 in.,  cents/lb.                   89.29          88.44    28.7
      OIL (1/31) $/bbl.                        18.46          18.66    15.0
      Sources: London Wednesday final setting, Chicago market, Metals Week, Memphis 
      market, NYMEX
      
      INTEREST RATES
                                              LATEST         WEEK      YEAR
                                              WEEK           AGO       AGO
      FEDERAL FUNDS (2/1)                     6.00%          5.45%     3.17%
      COMMERCIAL PAPER (1/31) 3-month         6.24           6.26      3.20
      CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT (2/1) 3-month   6.23           6.27      3.20
      FIXED MORTGAGE (1/27) 30-year           9.32           9.25      7.08
      ADJUSTABLE MORTGAGE (1/27) one-year     6.83           6.90      4.22
      PRIME (2/1)                             9.00           8.50      6.00
      Sources: Federal Reserve, HSH Associates, Reuters Holdings PLC
      
      FOREIGN EXCHANGE
                                              LATEST         WEEK      YEAR
                                              WEEK           AGO       AGO
      JAPANESE YEN (2/1)                     99.46           99.71     108.44
      GERMAN MARK (2/1)                       1.52            1.52       1.74
      BRITISH POUND (2/1)                     1.58            1.59       1.49
      FRENCH FRANC (2/1)                      5.28            5.26       5.91
      ITALIAN LIRA (2/1)                   1609.0          1599.0     1690.5
      CANADIAN DOLLAR (2/1)                   1.41            1.42       1.33
      MEXICAN PESO (2/1)3                     5.500           5.755      3.103
      Sources: Major New York banks. Currencies expressed in units per U.S. dollar, 
      except for British pound in dollars
      
      #Raw data in the production indicators are seasonally adjusted in computing the 
      BW index (chart); other components (estimated and not listed) include machinery 
      and defense equipment. 1=Western Wood Products Assn.   2=Southern Forest 
      Products Assn.    3=Free market value   NA=Not available   r=revised   NM=Not 
      meaningful
      
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