The U.S. Recovery Could Give Inflation The Slip

Just as generals tend to plan for the last war, economists tend to predict the previous business cycle. Both base their predictions on historical patterns. Right now, for example, economists persist in scanning the horizon for inflation, the traditional strangler of a recovery. But this time the expansion, which began in March, 1991, is turning out to be the most unusual of postwar recoveries, says David D. Hale, chief economist at Kemper Securities. And the inflation watch may be premature.

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