The Week Ahead

FEDERAL BUDGET

Monday, June 21, 2 p.m.

The federal government will likely report a budget deficit of $38 billion in May, says the median forecast of economists surveyed by MMS International, a unit of McGraw-Hill Inc. Washington posted a larger shortfall in May, 1992: $46.8 billion. But this year, stronger income tax receipts from both individuals and corporations and the absence of funding for the Resolution Trust Corp. are helping to lower the U.S. deficit.

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS

Wednesday, June 23, 8:30 a.m.

New orders taken by durable goods manufacturers probably increased by 1.2% in May. New orders have fallen in three of the past four months, including a 0.3% slip in April. Those declines reflect the ongoing cuts in military purchases and weakness in commercial-aircraft demand, as well as a buildup of retail inventories. Now, however, stores have whittled down their stock levels and are probably starting to order more goods again.

INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

Thursday, June 24, 8:30 a.m.

New filings for state unemployment insurance benefits are likely to total about 340,000 for the week ended June 19, down slightly from their 345,000 pace in the first week of June. Despite increased hiring in April and May, the number of people filing for jobless benefits remains relatively high. In particular, laid-off factory workers continue to fill the unemployment lines.

PERSONAL INCOME

Thursday, June 24, 10 a.m.

Personal income probably rose by 0.7% in May, project the MMS economists. That healthy gain is indicated by the increases in both nonfarm payrolls and average weekly earnings. Household income was flat in April because of a falloff in government subsidies paid to farmers. Consumer spending in May probably rose by 0.3%, after a 1% jump in April. The smaller May increase is suggested by the 0.1% advance in retail sales for the month.