Voters May Have A Jaundiced View Of The Economy

One statistic that seems to confirm the view that the economy is still in the soup is the composite index of coincident indicators. In five of the past six business cycles, this index touched bottom in the very month that was later declared the recession's end, and in the sixth cycle, it was off by only a month. This time around, however, the index seemed to bottom out in March, 1991, only to hit a new low at the start of 1992, and to fall even further in August. All of which implies that the recession hasn't ended.

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