Is This A Slowdown Or A Sea Change?

A recovery may be waiting in the wings, but it's too shy to step onto the stage. And for good reason: This could be the most overforecast recovery since the one that didn't arrive in the 1930s. The Bush Administration and "blue-chip" forecasters have been expecting the recovery since the victorious conclusion of the brief Persian Gulf war, and 1991 ended with the stock market staging a second runup predicting recovery--investors reasoning that economic news was so bad it could only get better.

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