Big Upticks Aren't Always The Start Of Something Big

Take July's 21.5% surge in nondefense capital goods orders with a grain of salt, advise economists at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp. They note that such orders soared by at least 20% only two times since 1969. One was last December, when a 24.9% rise was followed by five straight monthly declines. The other was in July, 1974, eight long months before the 1973-75 recession ended.

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