...And An Uptick In Gnp Does Not A Recovery Make

Even if the economy does pick up steam this spring as a result of an end to inventory cuts and the tonic effect of the war's end on consumer confidence, it's worth remembering that it takes more than a one-quarter uptick in real GNP to signal an end to recession. All of the past four recessions were punctuated by a quarter of at least 1% annual growth before they ended. And the 1973-75 and 1980 recessions recorded healthy one-quarter growth rates of 5% and 4.3%, respectively.

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