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By now you've already heard of a major
turning point of the war in Ukraine.

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My name is Bobby Ghosh.
I'm a foreign affairs columnist for

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Bloomberg Opinion.
I'm going to try and answer some of

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these questions.
The war began about 200 days ago and

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there've been three distinct phases in
the first.

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The Russians tried to take Kiev.
They were pushed back but successfully

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took a lot of other territory in eastern
Ukraine in the second part of this war.

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The two sides kept lobbing missiles at
each other was a war of attrition.

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And now in this third phase the
Ukrainians have made major advances.

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Ukrainians have taken back around 3000
square kilometers of territory that the

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Russians had previously taken from them.
It could be a pivotal moment in this

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war.
The key question now is whether the

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Ukrainians can hold the territory that
they've retaken.

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How the Russians regroup and come back
into the fight because almost certainly

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they will.
And whether the Ukrainians can then

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maintain that discipline in not going
too far into Russian territory.

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The other aspect that will be tested now
is whether the West and all the other

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allies that have been supporting Ukraine
can continue to help that war effort.

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There's still a lot of Ukrainian
territory in Russian hands.

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Thousands and thousands tens of
thousands of square kilometers.

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It seems unlikely that Ukraine can
reclaim all of that.

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But you know just a couple of weeks ago
it seemed unlikely that the Ukrainians

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would make even this advance.
So it's impossible to know how far the

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Ukrainians can actually go.
The Russian president has put a lot of

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his personal prestige on the line in
this war.

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The danger is that he will now get more
reckless in trying to regain the

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momentum that he will use bigger and
more dangerous weapons more missile

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attacks on civilian targets which has
already begun to happen.

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And the ultimate danger is that he will
use tactical nuclear missiles but it

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can't afford to feed his whole persona.
The political idea around Putinism is

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one of success is one of reclaiming
Russia's great military strength.

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So losing and especially losing to a
small country that he has projected as a

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walkover would be very very damaging for
him politically.

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It would it would make Russians reassess
how they feel about him.

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No dictator can tolerate that kind of
self-examination.

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This is the turning point in the war.
The war is not over not by any long

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shot.
The Russians will regroup.

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You can be certain of that.
They will not walk away.

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There is no talk of a peaceful
negotiated settlement.

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Both sides are still aiming for the
maximum.

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Russia wants to take all of Ukraine.
Ukraine wants to retake all of the

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territory including Crimea that Russia
took from it.

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So this war could go on for months on
end.

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It could last well into 2023 perhaps
even beyond that.

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But the fact that the Ukrainians have
demonstrated that they can give the

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Russians a real hiding forces Putin to
recalculate what exactly he's trying to

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achieve in that country.