Outlook 2023

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Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2023

It may be one of the most anticipated recessions of all time, but that doesn’t mean it won’t hurt.

Barclays Capital Inc. says 2023 will go down as one of the worst for the world economy in four decades. Ned Davis Research Inc. puts the odds of a severe global downturn at 65%. Fidelity International reckons a hard landing looks unavoidable.

To kickstart the new year, Bloomberg News has gathered more than 500 calls from Wall Street’s army of strategists to paint the investing landscape ahead. And upbeat forecasts are hard to find, threatening fresh pain for investors who’ve just endured the great crash of 2022.

As the Federal Reserve ramps up its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, the consensus view is that a recession, albeit mild, will hit both sides of the Atlantic with a high bar for any dovish policy pivot, even if inflation has peaked.

Still, humility is the order of the day for prognosticators who largely failed to predict the 2022 cost-of-living crisis and double-digit market losses. This time around, the consensus could prove badly wrong once again, delivering a host of positive surprises. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS Asset Management, for their part, see the economy defying the bearish consensus as price growth eases — signaling big gains for investors if they get the market right.

Expect an uneven year in trading. Deutsche Bank AG sees the S&P 500 Index rising to 4,500 in the first half, before falling 25% in the third quarter as a downturn bites — only to bounce back to 4,500 by end-2023 as investors front-run a recovery.

Perhaps the easy money will be made in bonds at long last. After the asset class delivered the biggest loss in the modern era last year, UBS Group AG expects US 10-year yields will drop to as low as 2.65% by the end of the year on juicy coupons and renewed haven demand.

Meanwhile the crypto bubble has burst. Investment houses are in no mood to talk up the industry, after spending the boom years hyping up the speculative mania as same kind of digital gold for tomorrow, while peddling virtual-currency products to clients in traditional finance. Now, crypto references have been all but extinguished in 2023 outlooks.

And remember Covid? For global macro strategists at least, it’s a distant memory. The pandemic is only a material consideration with respect to China’s high-risk effort to rapidly reopen its economy — the outcome of which could have profound consequences for the world’s investment and consumption cycle.



See outlooks for previous years: 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019

This article has been compiled by Bloomberg News by sampling views and research shared with the media and/or publicly accessible online. Much of the content was originally issued as marketing material and comes with other disclaimers. It is presented here to allow comparison and analysis across a swath of major financial institutions. Most of the entries have been edited for style, clarity and/or length, and the list is not exhaustive. Bloomberg has selected views it deems to be key and capped the number of calls per institution to 15. Institutions often hold multiple views across various departments, therefore those on display may not represent the full range held by each firm. Where possible, views from multi-asset or macro teams have been preferred. In a few cases, views from different departments have been combined. Inclusion is entirely at the discretion of Bloomberg News. Some institutions may not appear because their research was unavailable, or Bloomberg may have judged the contents to be out-of-date. Most outlooks for 2023 were published well before the end of 2022, so may not incorporate price moves or events that occurred late in the year, for example the final Federal Reserve meeting of 2022 or the Bank of Japan’s yield policy adjustment on December 20. Calls may have been excluded on that basis. Base cases are as identified by Bloomberg, and editorial judgment has been used throughout.

Editor: Sid Verma

Contributors: Cecile Gutscher, Paul Dobson, Abhishek Vishnoi and Vildana Hajric

Production: Jeremy Scott Diamond

Photographer: Mark Newman/Getty Images