Inflation Could Be Path to Re-election for GOP’s Most Vulnerable Senator
Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson is the most vulnerable Senate Republican on the ballot this year and among the most divisive. But the economic pain of his constituents may have given him a lifeline.
By pinning the blame on President Joe Biden, he might just get re-elected in November.
In the first three months of 2022, inflation spread across the cities of this highly competitive swing state more broadly than any other US state, according to Moody’s Analytics estimates shared with Bloomberg. Of the top 50 US metro regions with the biggest price growth in April, Wisconsin cities made up seven of them.
Inflation Tops US Median in Most Wisconsin Metro Areas
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The cost of cheese—a source of pride for one of the country’s largest dairy producers—has soared alongside the price of gasoline, diesel and other staple foods.
“Inflation is a tax on everybody,” Johnson said in a recent Senate-hallway interview. “Be energy independent, drill for fossil fuels, let’s lower the price of energy from that standpoint. Stop deficit spending to the extent we are and quit paying people not to work.”
In moments of economic crisis, voters tend to punish the party in the White House, leaving Johnson an undeniable opening.
Tyler Christensen, 29, paints trucks at Oshkosh Defense, a military-vehicle manufacturer, and is seeing his hours cut because the factory can’t get enough parts to keep producing at its previous pace. At the same time, the cost of the gasoline he needs for his 20-mile commute from Fond du Lac is rising rapidly. Like many Midwestern states, Wisconsin has more vehicles per household than other parts of the US.
“Ever since Biden’s taken over, gas prices have gone through the roof and nothing’s changing,” Christensen said.
Gas Prices Soar Toward $5 Across US
Dissatisfaction runs deep in the Badger State. A new Marquette University Law School poll shows Biden with a 57% disapproval rating in the state, with 75% of those surveyed “very concerned” about inflation.
If Johnson squeaks by in the midterms, it could sink any hopes Democrats had of clinging to control of the Senate. With the GOP favored to nab a majority in the US House, a victory by the 67-year-old multimillionaire and a Republican net gain of just one other seat could help propel a crucial power shift in Washington—if he can overcome his 37% favorability rating.
The Marquette poll of 803 registered Wisconsin voters, conducted June 14-20 with a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points, showed Johnson in a dead heat with any of four leading Democratic opponents.
It’s Johnson full-throated embrace of former President Donald Trump that is making moderate voters queasy. Wisconsin has a pretty even political split and has turned into a culture-wars battleground that includes the state’s response to the expected end of federal abortion rights.
How Johnson Compared to Trump
Democrats point to inflammatory remarks where Johnson minimized the US Capitol attack, questioned the outcome of the 2020 election and pushed a dubious treatment for Covid-19. This week, it came to light that Johnson tried to intervene on Trump’s behalf just moments before Congress met on Jan. 6, 2021, to certify the 2020 election results.
Those statements and controversies could cost Johnson swing voters and gin up Democratic turnout in urban areas, said Joe Zepecki, a Milwaukee-based Democratic strategist.
Wisconsin’s Swingy Political Landscape
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Democrats also say exasperation with inflation can’t save him. “The problem is that people like Ron Johnson have not done a single thing to address inflation and rising costs,” said Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, who is narrowly leading among Democratic primary candidates in the Marquette poll.
Still, the weight of higher prices and supply-chain challenges is widely felt. Steven Bennett, who has owned Bernie’s Fine Meats for 17 years in Port Washington along Lake Michigan, complains of soaring beef costs he’d rather not pass to consumers, fewer tourists willing to pay for the gasoline to get to him, and the higher wages needed to attract entry-level help.
He said he doesn’t blame Biden because “I don’t think it’s one man’s ability to change that.”
The co-founder of a plastic-sheeting company, Johnson is one of the richest senators, with an estimated net worth of between $15 million and $77 million, according to a 2021 financial disclosure that lists assets in broad ranges. He had never held elective office until 2010 and is now the only Senate GOP incumbent running in a state Biden won in 2020.
Wisconsin is a real political mix: Governor Tony Evers is a Democrat but both chambers of the state legislature are in GOP control. The state’s US House delegation is split among five Republicans and three Democrats. And just two years after state voters sent Johnson to the Senate, they elected Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, a liberal Democrat and the chamber’s first openly LGBTQ member.
Perhaps cognizant of the split-screen state politics, Johnson appeared to tread carefully when discussing abortion. The poll by Marquette Law School this week showed 58% of Wisconsin voters favor legal abortion in some or all cases, while 35% said it should be banned in most or all cases. It also showed 58% were “very concerned” about abortion, 17 points less than those who said the same about inflation.
Although an 1849 law banning abortion without exception would snap back into effect if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, Johnson said he anticipates the state legislature would pass a new abortion law that would allow some exceptions. A number of other states that generally ban abortion allow the procedure in cases of rape, incest, or the woman’s life.
“Abortion’s not going away,” he said. “We’re not going back to 50 years ago.”
Sophie Crangle, a 20-year-old coffeehouse employee in suburban Ozaukee County who knocks on doors for Democrats, said abortion concerns may not boost her party enough to unseat Johnson. “In Ozaukee County, he’s highly favored,” she said.
With control of the Senate at stake, money is pouring into the race. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have reserved millions for television ads in Wisconsin, as have super-PACs run by allies of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
The White House has taken a particular interest in the contest, with Biden singling Johnson out in a recent speech for his opposition to Obamacare. Democrats will be looking to maximize turnout in urban strongholds like Milwaukee and Madison, while Johnson could get a boost from rural counties that have trended more Republican since 2016.
Wisconsin has a long history as an unpredictable political pendulum and that is unlikely to change. Take, for example, La Crosse high school teacher Joey Ferrito. He was a no-Trump Republican who in 2016 voted for Hillary Clinton for president and Johnson for Senate.
But after he’s seen Johnson fan questions over the 2020 election, he’s planning to vote for the senator’s Democratic opponent. “I thought Trump wasn’t a real Republican but Ron Johnson was,” said Ferrito, 26. “Turned out I was wrong.”