China Upended the Politics of Plastic and the World Is Still Reeling
When China stopped importing waste two years ago, it may have inadvertently done the world a favor.
China accepted two-thirds of global plastic waste as recently as 2016. So Beijing’s decision to halt shipments of two dozen types of solid waste, including certain plastics, paper and textiles, had drastic knock-on effects when it took effect on Jan. 1, 2018.
A Bloomberg survey of 25 governments worldwide—the Group of 20 nations, plus Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Nigeria and the Philippines—found countries still struggling to adapt. Several nations are being inundated with more waste than they can process, some face problems storing what they produce, while a few, including the U.S., have seen municipal recycling efforts falter. Yet others see an opportunity. Almost all, however, are being forced into a root-and-branch rethink of their waste-management systems as a result of China’s move.
Plastic Planet
The import ban helped to focus attention on the insalubrious side to a global waste market projected to be worth $530 billion by 2025: shipping plastics from richer countries to poorer ones predominantly in Asia and the Pacific.
QuickTake: The Problem With Plastic
Overnight, major exporters of plastic waste such as Germany lost their biggest trading partner. Japan was faced with having to find new destinations for around 94% of its plastic and is experiencing severe strain on storage. At the same time, data shows total trade was down in 2018, suggesting that countries are handling more of their own waste.
Waste Displaced
China
Hong Kong
Rest of World
U.S.
Germany
Japan
U.K.
2M tons
1.5M
1.5M
800
2014
2019*
2014
2019*
2014
2018
2014
2019*
France
Canada
Australia
South Korea
500
200
200
200
2014
2018
2014
2018
2014
2017
2014
2019*
China
Hong Kong
Rest of World
U.S.
Germany
2M tons
1.5M
2014
2019*
2014
2019*
France
Canada
500
200
2014
2019*
2014
2018
Japan
U.K.
1.5M
800
2014
2018
2014
2019*
Australia
South Korea
200
200
2014
2018
2014
2017
By 2030, China’s policy will have displaced 111 million metric tons (122 million U.S. tons) of plastic waste to other countries, according to a University of Georgia study.[1] That’s the equivalent in weight of about 335 Empire State Buildings.
Some of China’s neighbors bore the brunt of the displacement. According to UN Comtrade, a database for official trade data, Malaysia was the new top destination for the world’s plastic in 2018. Indonesia saw a 250% increase in plastic waste imports, government figures show. In Vietnam, where domestic plastic consumption has risen more than tenfold since 1990, inbound shipments surged 200%. Such huge increases rapidly overwhelmed countries, prompting governments to impose their own prohibitions on trash imports.
New Trading Partners
Monthly imports of plastic waste, in tons
0
250
500
750K
’17
China announces
ban by 2018
’18
Malaysia ban
Taiwan ban
’19
Thailand ban by 2021
India ban
Monthly imports of plastic waste, in tons
750K
India ban;
Indonesia
sends back
contaminated
imports
500
Malaysia ban
China announces
ban starting
Jan. 1, 2018
Thailand announces ban by 2021
Taiwan ban
250
0
2017
2018
2019
Plastic exports are regulated by the Basel Convention, which allows trade of only clean, sorted and recyclable plastic. But that’s not always observed. Malaysia said this week that it had repatriated 150 containers of illegal plastic waste. In September, Indonesia said it was returning 100 containers of contaminated waste to Australia, among other countries. In November, Australia announced a staged ban on exporting unprocessed waste plastic, as well as paper, glass and tires, starting July. Changes to the Convention due to come into effect next year will require exporters to get prior consent for plastic shipments classed as “difficult” to recycle.
There are financial incentives for handling waste: Malaysia’s plastic recycling and manufacturing industry is worth about $7.2 billion, government figures show. China’s ban has countries like Malaysia and Indonesia turning their domestic plastic waste into a commodity. The Indonesian government has partnered with British startup Plastic Energy, who has developed a chemical process capable of recycling difficult plastic waste, and has plans for five plants. The country has ambitiously committed to reduce marine plastic debris by 70 percent by 2025. Plastic Energy is also working with Petronas, a Malaysian oil company with plans to bring the technology to Malaysia.
A large portion of Turkish recycling capacity is occupied by imported waste from Germany and the U.K., due to its higher quality from more effective sorting processes. Only 6% of domestic plastic waste is recycled through these facilities, according to the OECD.
China’s ban, known as National Sword, has shifted plastic waste from a global problem to a country of origin problem, since the majority of waste is still handled domestically—in 2016 just 4% of global waste was exported.[2]
Many of the nations surveyed, including South Africa, the Philippines and Canada, send the majority of their waste to be buried in landfill sites. At least five of the Group of 20 biggest economies—Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, India and Indonesia—dump millions of tons of plastic untreated, for it to find its way into watercourses and the ocean. The Mediterranean Sea is polluted at a rate equivalent to 33,800 plastic bottles every minute, according to WWF.[3]
Methods of Disposal
All types of municipal solid waste
Composting
Recycling
Landfill
Open dumping
Incineration
Other/Unknown
Turkey
Mexico
Russia
Argentina
100%
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
Canada
South Africa
China
All types of municipal solid waste
Landfill
Open dumping
Incineration
Other/Unknown
Composting
Recycling
100%
Turkey
Mexico
Russia
Argentina
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
Canada
South Africa
China
Yet there are promising developments too. Russia, which has a recycling rate of just 4%, is reforming its whole waste-management system, establishing 220 new garbage plants at the cost of about 290 billion rubles ($4.5 billion), and rolling out its first city-wide recycling scheme in Moscow earlier this month.
Saudi Arabia has established a state waste management company with the aim of introducing municipal recycling from scratch. Nigeria, which used to send bales of plastic waste to Asia, sees an opportunity to process locally the estimated 149,240 tons it produced in 2018.
The EU has set targets for all plastic packaging—the top source of plastic waste—to be recyclable by 2030, and has put greater emphasis on policies that shift the cost of waste management from local governments to producers. That’s helping to spur innovation in packaging design and prompting companies like Procter & Gamble and Unilever to slash their use of new plastic. Danish brewer Carlsberg developed a paper beer bottle. Coca-Cola and Pepsi have voiced concerns about being able to access enough recycled material, sending prices soaring.
Markets Shifting
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Most commonly recycled plastic. Sturdy and durable, often used to carry milk, oil or detergents
Scrap
New
$0.60/kg
2014 fall in
oil prices
50
China
announces
ban
40
30
20
10
2014
2017
2020
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)
Most commonly recycled plastic. Sturdy and durable, often used to carry milk, oil or detergents
Scrap
New
$0.60/kg
2014 fall in oil prices
50
China announces
ban on scrap imports
40
30
20
10
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Perhaps most significantly of all, two years on from its import ban, China announced plans to curb domestic consumption of single-use plastics.
In the U.S., the restrictions imposed in 2018 were “very painful in the short term,” the Plastics Industry Association acknowledged in an emailed statement. But China’s actions helped to spur new investments in recycling, the group said, with the result that “we expect the domestic capacity and capability to be greatly expanded in the coming years.”