Stocks
The S&P 500 gained or lost at least 2 percent 16 days this year, the most since 2011.
The Year in Money
Trade disputes, exploding global debt and volatile stock markets were just the beginning. Here are the numbers behind the defining moments for global markets and economies in 2018.
Markets
3%
Day with gain of 2 percent or more
2
1
0
-1
-2
Day with decline of 2 percent or more
-3
-4
-5
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
3%
Day with gain of 2 percent or more
2
1
0
-1
-2
Day with decline of 2 percent or more
-3
-4
-5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
3%
Day with gain of 2 percent or more
2
1
0
-1
-2
Day with decline of 2 percent or more
-3
-4
-5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Note: Data as of Dec. 12
Treasuries
As the U.S. central bank raised short-term rates, the yield curve flattened and partially inverted in what some analysts view as a sign of impending recession.
Basis points 200
150
100
50
Spread between the
2-year and 5-year
Treasury yield goes
negative for first
time since 2007
0
-25
1/3/06
12/12/18
Basis points 200
150
100
50
0
Spread between the 2-year and 5-year
Treasury yield goes
negative for first time since 2007
-25
1/3/06
12/12/18
Basis points 200
150
100
50
0
Spread between the 2-year and 5-year Treasury yield
goes negative for first time since 2007
-25
1/3/06
12/12/18
Currencies
The Argentine peso was the worst-performing among major currencies, losing about half its value.
Top 5 spot returns
Hong Kong
dollar
0.01%
Japanese
yen
-0.44
Swiss
franc
-1.77
Mexican
peso
-2.00
Singapore
dollar
-2.57
Bottom 5 spot returns
South African
rand
-12.18
Russian
ruble
-13.21
Brazilian
real
-14.13
Turkish
lira
-29.00
Argentine peso
-50.45
Top 5 spot returns
Hong Kong
dollar
0.01%
Japanese
yen
-0.44
Swiss
franc
-1.77
Mexican
peso
-2.00
Singapore
dollar
-2.57
Bottom 5 spot returns
South African
rand
-12.18
Russian
ruble
-13.21
Brazilian
real
-14.13
Turkish
lira
-29.00
Argentine peso
-50.45
Top 5 spot returns
0.01%
Hong Kong dollar
Japanese yen
-0.44
Swiss franc
-1.77
Mexican peso
-2.00
Singapore dollar
-2.57
Bottom 5 spot returns
South African rand
-12.18
Russian ruble
-13.21
Brazilian real
-14.13
Turkish lira
-29.00
Argentine peso
-50.45
Natural gas
After a slow climb for most of the year, natural gas surged 41 percent in November on concern about colder-than-expected temperatures and low supply. Prices rapidly reversed in early December, leaving some traders with losses.
U.S. natural gas futures (MMBtu)
$5
4
3
2
One-day percent change
20%
10
0
-10
-20
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
U.S. natural gas futures (MMBtu)
$5
4
3
2
One-day percent change
20%
10
0
-10
-20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
U.S. natural gas futures (MMBtu)
$5
4
3
2
One-day percent change
20%
10
0
-10
-20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell back to Earth. The original cryptocurrency plunged below $3,500 from a January high above $16,700. The volume of initial coin offerings also peaked.
Volume of ICOs
$6B
4
2
0
$20K
Bitcoin value
15
10
5
0
1/2016
11/2018
Volume of ICOs
$6B
4
2
0
$20K
Bitcoin value
15
10
5
0
1/2016
11/2018
Volume of ICOs
$6B
Bitcoin value
$20K
15
4
10
2
5
0
0
1/2016
11/2018
1/2016
11/2018
Source: CoinSchedule, Bitstamp
Billionaires
It was a volatile year for big tech fortunes in the U.S. and China. Amazon.com Inc.’s founder and chief executive officer had the best year by far, while Facebook Inc.’s wasn’t so lucky.
Biggest gainers
+$38.7B
+$9.2B
Jeff Bezos
Lei Jun
+$8.2B
+$7.2B
Steve Ballmer
Colin Huang
Biggest losers
-$10.4B
-$11B
Wang Jianlin
Amancio Ortega
-$13.3B
-$15.6B
Georg Schaeffler
Mark Zuckerberg
Biggest gainers
+$38.7B
+$9.2B
+$8.2B
+$7.2B
Jeff
Bezos
Lei
Jun
Steve
Ballmer
Colin
Huang
Biggest losers
-$10.4B
-$11B
-$13.3B
-$15.6B
Wang
Jianlin
Amancio
Ortega
Georg
Schaeffler
Mark
Zuckerberg
Biggest gainers
+$38.7B
+$9.2B
+$8.2B
+$7.2B
Jeff Bezos
Lei Jun
Steve Ballmer
Colin Huang
Biggest losers
-$10.4B
-$11B
-$13.3B
-$15.6B
Wang Jianlin
Amancio Ortega
Georg Schaeffler
Mark Zuckerberg
Global
Tariffs
The U.S. launched the first salvo over the summer, placing tariffs on about $50 billion in Chinese imports. China quickly responded with its own taxes on American goods, and so it went. The value of goods with additional tariffs imposed on them by the two nations now stands at $360 billion.
$250B
Value of Chinese goods targeted
by U.S. tariffs
$360B
Total
$110B
Value of U.S. goods targeted
by Chinese tariffs
$250B
Value of Chinese goods targeted
by U.S. tariffs
$360B
Total
$110B
Value of U.S. goods targeted by Chinese tariffs
$250B
Value of Chinese goods targeted by U.S. tariffs
Total
$110B
Value of U.S. goods targeted by Chinese tariffs
Global GDP
Venezuela’s economy shrank the most, while Libya’s grew the fastest, according to IMF estimates.
Libya
10.9%
Ethiopia
7.5
Côte d’Ivoire
7.4
Bangladesh
7.3
India
7.3
Rwanda
7.2
Senegal
7
Cambodia
7
Laos
6.8
Djibouti
6.7
-2.3
Puerto Rico
-2.3
Sudan
-2.4
Nauru
-2.6
Argentina
-2.6
Yemen
-3.2
South Sudan
-4
Nicaragua
-7.7
Eq. Guinea
-14.1
Dominica
-18
Venezuela
Libya
10.9%
Ethiopia
7.5
Côte d’Ivoire
7.4
Bangladesh
7.3
India
7.3
Rwanda
7.2
Senegal
7
Cambodia
7
Laos
6.8
Djibouti
6.7
-2.3
Puerto Rico
-2.3
Sudan
-2.4
Nauru
-2.6
Argentina
-2.6
Yemen
-3.2
South Sudan
-4
Nicaragua
-7.7
Equatorial Guinea
-14.1
Dominica
-18
Venezuela
Libya
10.9%
Ethiopia
7.5
Côte d’Ivoire
7.4
Bangladesh
7.3
India
7.3
Rwanda
7.2
Senegal
7
Cambodia
7
Laos
6.8
Djibouti
6.7
-2.3
Puerto Rico
-2.3
Sudan
-2.4
Nauru
-2.6
Argentina
-2.6
Yemen
-3.2
South Sudan
-4
Nicaragua
-7.7
Equatorial Guinea
-14.1
Dominica
-18
Venezuela
Source: International Monetary Fund
Global debt
The world’s debt has more than doubled from 15 years earlier, largely fueled by government and corporate borrowing.
$247T
$61T
Financial
+$147T
$67T
Government
$100T
$74T
Nonfinancial
corporate
$30T
Financial
$23T
Government
$26T
Nonfinancial
corporate
$47T
Household
$20T
Household
Q1 2003
Q2 2018
$247T
$61T
Financial
+$147T
$67T
Government
$100T
$74T
Nonfinancial corporate
$30T
Financial
$23T
Government
$26T
Nonfinancial corporate
$47T
Household
$20T
Household
Q1 2003
Q2 2018
$247T
$61T
Financial
+$147T
$67T
Government
$100T
$74T
Nonfinancial corporate
$30T
Financial
$23T
Government
$26T
Nonfinancial corporate
$47T
Household
$20T
Household
Q1 2003
Q2 2018
Note: Subtotals are rounded
Source: Institute of International Finance
Interest rates
The U.S., South Korea and Indonesia tightened monetary policy, while Japan, China and the euro zone stood pat.
Dec. 29, 2017
Dec. 14, 2018
0
2
4
6
8%
Japan
Euro zone
U.S.
South
Korea
Brazil
Indonesia
China
India
Russia
Dec. 29, 2017
Dec. 14, 2018
0
2
4
6
8%
Japan
Euro zone
U.S.
South
Korea
Brazil
Indonesia
China
India
Russia
Dec. 29, 2017
Dec. 14, 2018
0
2
4
6
8%
Japan
Euro zone
U.S.
South Korea
Brazil
Indonesia
China
India
Russia
Mature Economies
Australia and debt
In Australia, the ratio of household debt to disposable income rose to 191 percent.
200%
191%
Ratio of household debt to household
disposable income
100
0
Q2
1988
Q2
2018
191%
200%
Ratio of household debt
to household
disposable income
100
0
Q2
1988
Q2
2018
191%
200%
Ratio of household debt
to household
disposable income
100
0
Q2
1988
Q2
2018
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
Japan and dementia
In Japan, researchers estimate the assets of people with dementia could be equivalent to one-quarter of GDP.
¥549T
Japan’s 2018 GDP
estimate
¥143T
Assets held by
people with
dementia, Q1 2018
¥549T
Japan’s 2018 GDP estimate
¥143T
Assets held by people
with dementia, Q1 2018
¥549T
¥143T
Japan’s 2018 GDP
estimate
Assets held by people
with dementia, Q1 2018
Source: Dai-ichi Life
U.S. quit rate
American workers gained some power. The share of U.S. workers quitting their jobs rose to 2.4 percent in July, the highest since 2001. The rate ticked back down to 2.3 percent in October.
3%
Rate in April 2001
2
1
12/2000
10/2018
3%
Rate in April 2001
2
1
12/2000
10/2018
3%
Rate in April 2001
2
1
12/2000
10/2018
Developing Economies
China HNA
Megacorporations in China are selling off assets to curb their debt levels. HNA Group has sold about $20 billion in assets around the world this year.
$2.2B
$2B
$853M
$356M
Ireland
Sweden
U.K.
Germany
$9.5B
U.S.
$704M
Spain
$451M
$1B
Brazil
Switzerland
$2.9B
Hong Kong
$533M
Singapore
$148M
Australia
$356M
$853M
U.K.
Germany
$2.2B
$2B
$2.9B
Ireland
Sweden
Hong Kong
$9.5B
$704M
$533M
U.S.
Spain
Singapore
$1B
$451M
$148M
Brazil
Switzerland
Australia
$853M
$356M
Germany
U.K.
$2.2B
$2B
$2.9B
Ireland
Sweden
Hong Kong
$9.5B
$704M
$533M
U.S.
Spain
Singapore
$1B
Switzerland
$451M
$148M
Brazil
Australia
U.S. Treasury holdings by Russia
Once a top 10 holder of U.S. government debt, Russia reduced its holdings of Treasuries to less than $15 billion from about $100 billion.
—84.5%
$140B
Amount of U.S. government debt sold by Russia between March and May of
this year
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
—84.5%
$140B
Amount of U.S. government debt sold by Russia between March and May of this year
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
$140B
—84.5%
120
Amount of U.S. government debt sold by Russia between March and May of this year
100
80
60
40
20
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Argentina’s bailout
The International Monetary Fund approved a $57.1 billion credit line for Argentina, boosting a deal agreed upon in June, to address the country’s recession and plunging currency. In November the IMF projected that a recovery would start in the second quarter of 2019.
Biggest IMF bailouts in history
Argentina
(2018)
$57.1B
Greece
(2010)
39.3
Portugal
(2011)
37.8
Brazil
(2002)
36.4
Greece
(2012)
36.4
Ireland
(2010)
29.9
Argentina
(2000)
22.7
Korea
(1997)
21.0
Turkey
(1999)
20.7
Russia
(1996)
19.3
Brazil
(1998)
18.1
Biggest IMF bailouts in history
Argentina
(2018)
$57.1B
Greece
(2010)
39.3
Portugal
(2011)
37.8
Brazil
(2002)
36.4
Greece
(2012)
36.4
Ireland
(2010)
29.9
Argentina
(2000)
22.7
Korea
(1997)
21.0
Turkey
(1999)
20.7
Russia
(1996)
19.3
Brazil
(1998)
18.1
Biggest IMF bailouts in history
Argentina (2018)
$57.1B
Greece (2010)
39.3
37.8
Portugal (2011)
36.4
Brazil (2002)
36.4
Greece (2012)
29.9
Ireland (2010)
Argentina (2000)
22.7
Korea (1997)
21.0
Turkey (1999)
20.7
19.3
Russia (1996)
18.1
Brazil (1998)
Note: Figures are in nominal dollars; all figures were converted from SDR to USD on the date each loan package was announced
Source: International Monetary Fund
Venezuela’s inflation
Venezuela’s overall 2018 inflation rate is estimated to be 1.37 million percent, according to the IMF. The price of a cup of coffee, however, has risen “only” about 200,000 percent from a year ago. The IMF predicts that by 2023, the country’s inflation will reach 10 million percent.
VES 400
199,900%
The amount by which
the price of a cup of coffee in Venezuela has risen in the last year,
to 400 bolivares
200
0
12/13/17
12/12/18
VES 400
199,900%
The amount by which the price of a
cup of coffee in Venezuela has risen in
the last year, to 400 bolivares
200
0
12/12/18
12/13/17
VES 400
199,900%
The amount by which the price of a cup of coffee in Venezuela
has risen in the last year, to 400 bolivares
200
0
12/13/17
12/12/18
South Africa’s slump
South Africa’s business cycle downturn became its longest ever.
Months 100
99
Upward phases
51
50
42
0
-21
-33
-50
-58
-51
Downward phases
-100
89–’93
’96–’99
’07–’09
’13–’18
’93–’96
’99–’07
’09–’13
99
Months 100
Upward phases
51
50
42
0
-21
-33
-50
-58
-51
Downward phases
-100
1989–’93
’93–’96
’96–’99
’99–’07
’07–’09
’09–’13
’13–’18
99
Months 100
Upward phases
51
50
42
0
-21
-33
-50
-58
-51
Downward phases
-100
1989–’93
’93–’96
’96–’99
’99–’07
’07–’09
’09–’13
’13–’18
Source: South African Reserve Bank