Americans Actually Voted in the 2018 Midterms

As the last states certify their vote totals from the November midterms, it’s become increasingly clear that 2018 was a landmark election for voter turnout. So far, 118 million votes have been certified, meaning that more than half of eligible Americans cast a ballot. That’s the highest turnout in a midterm election in a century.

Midterm elections are typically low-turnout affairs. For the past three decades, the percentage of eligible voters casting midterm ballots hasn’t risen above 42 percent. In 2014, only 36.7 percent of eligible voters participated—the lowest in 70 years. That makes this year’s numbers especially striking: Turnout was up from 2014 totals in almost every congressional district.

Lots of factors can weigh on whether someone votes, but the biggest reason for high turnout in 2018 likely has more to do with the national political climate than local races and candidates.

“The obvious explanation is Donald Trump,” said Michael McDonald, associate professor of political science at the University of Florida who also runs the United States Election Project. “That really spurred an interest in politics—and whether you love him or hate him, you're showing up to vote because you want to have your say.”

A rebuke to the president’s party is common in midterm elections: In only three in the last 100 years has the president’s party gained seats, and losses can be especially stark in the first election after a new commander in chief takes office. President Donald Trump saw House Republicans lose a net of 40 seats in 2018, even as they gained two in the Senate. Democrats lost a net of 63 seats in 2010 when Republicans took control of the House in the first election after President Barack Obama took office.

Since voters typically turn against the party of the president in midterm elections, it can influence calculations for both parties about where—or even if—congressional candidates run.

The number of congressional Republicans who didn’t seek another term in 2018 was the highest in at least 88 years. House incumbents were re-elected 94 percent¹ of the time over the past 50 years. So with more Republicans than Democrats choosing to step aside this year—34 Republicans versus 18 Democrats—the GOP was at an early disadvantage. And the number of House Democratic candidates who ran without a Republican opponent was the highest since 2006 and 2008, when the party made big gains in the House.

In the same way presidential elections boost nationwide turnout, Senate and governor’s races (or the lack thereof) can shape voter turnout at the state level in midterm elections. Louisiana was one of only two states this year with lower turnout than in 2014. There were no Senate, governor or state legislative elections to boost turnout in 2018, and none of its House races were rated as competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Although Minnesota typically boasts the highest turnout in the country, its statewide turnout hit a 16-year high with a governor’s race and two Senate races—including one special election—on the ballot. That was true in other states with typically high rates of voter participation.

“Michigan and Wisconsin, in the Midwest, have ‘participatory cultures’—same with Minnesota,” said Scot Schraufnagel, professor and chair of the Department of Political Science at Northern Illinois University. “Of course, Michigan and Wisconsin also had very competitive races at the top of the ticket.”

Tight Senate races helped boost turnout in states where few House races were close. When Beto O’Rourke launched a surprisingly competitive bid for Ted Cruz’s Senate seat in Texas, it garnered national attention—and statewide turnout increased by 18 percentage points compared to 2014, even though only two of the state’s 36 House seats flipped.

Missouri, home to one of the most highly contested Senate races this year, had the third-highest increase in statewide turnout since 2014. Republican Josh Hawley defeated incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill in a state Trump won by 18.5 points in 2016. Missouri’s House races this year largely were uncompetitive: Seven of eight were decided by more than 25 points. But in each of those districts, turnout was considerably higher than it was four years ago.

Even when voter enthusiasm is high, citizens must contend with a wide array of election laws that dictate when they must register and what they must bring to the polls—and that can weigh on turnout. States that had the highest turnout in 2018 tend also to make it easier for people to vote, including Oregon and Colorado, which let voters mail in their ballots. And even though turnout was up almost everywhere in 2018, restrictive measures can keep voters from casting ballots.

Though Democrats made big gains in the House, voters from both parties turned out in historic numbers this year. Republicans offset losses in the House by gaining a net of two Senate seats and will have a 53-47 advantage in the Senate next year. Trump campaigned aggressively in competitive Senate races in the lead-up to the election, and four Senate Democrats lost re-election bids in states Trump won in 2016.

Trump’s approval ratings are sharply polarized along party lines: A record-high 60 percent of respondents told Gallup they intended to “send a message” of support or opposition to the president with their vote. And that may not subside when Trump is on the ballot in two years.

“If we're seeing this sort of record 100-year turnout in 2018, we're probably going to see something mirrored in 2020,” said McDonald, the University of Florida professor. “The same issues—the same driving factors—that are driving turnout in 2018 will be present in 2020.”