Markets

Marcus Ashworth is a Bloomberg Gadfly columnist covering European markets. He spent three decades in the banking industry, most recently as chief markets strategist at Haitong Securities in London.

If Brexit and Donald Trump didn’t make it clear enough, political risk is back with a vengeance.

Except in France. Investors appear to be giving a very Gallic shrug to the risk of far-right leader Marine Le Pen pulling off a surprise victory in next year's presidential election. After hitting its widest point since June 2015 last week, the difference in yield between French government bonds and German bunds of a comparable maturity has narrowed a bit. That relief may not last.

The French Have it Easier
Italy's debt has had a tougher time than French securities in recent months
Source: Bloomberg

A Le Pen victory is an unlikely outcome. While she might come top in the first round of voting in April, opinion polls show she would trail her opponent in the second round the following month. Pollsters tell Bloomberg News they're confident they're right. But both Brexit and Trump were seen as unlikely -- once. Whatever the final outcome, the way her campaign waxes and wanes in coming weeks still has the potential to move bond markets.

Yields on French government bonds have climbed in recent weeks, as this chart shows. But that's largely the result of the rout that's hurt all fixed-income markets.

Le Trump
The surprise U.S. pick of Donald Trump for president hit the French yield curve across the board
Source: Bloomberg

Compared with Italy, where Prime Minister Matteo Renzi looks set to lose a referendum on constitutional reform on Dec. 4, they've hardly moved at all. Renzi's said he'll quit if he loses, and if that happens investors are braced for instability to follow. In addition, France is still deemed a core market, with most of the region's sovereign risk still residing in the periphery. 

Trump Tantrum
The U.S. election result's many effects on bond markets include a jump in the spread of French 10-year bond yields over comparable German debt
Source: Bloomberg

Two things may change investors' view on the perceived risk. The first is who Les Republicans pick as their candidate this weekend. Polls show former Prime Minister Alain Juppe would beat Le Pen by a much wider margin than former President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Second, Le Pen will probably be one of the two candidates who make it through to the second round. Investors may take fright when it becomes a two-horse race -- even though her father lost to Jacques Chirac in a landslide when he made the runoff in 2002.

Thursday sees this year's last sale of medium-dated French government bonds and index-linked securities. Then there's a final mixed auction in December, when primary dealers tender for what they want. Then that's it for issuance this year.

Domestic buyers may be attracted by the increased yield and look prepared to overlook the political threat for now. They may be also be taking some comfort that the European Central Bank's bond purchases will pick up some slack, though equally they'll have to contend with the prospect that the central bank may start tapering next year. That could leave fixed-income investors higher and drier than they would be otherwise. 

Either way, they should be prepared for further movement in French government bonds as the election race enters its final furlongs. Complacency at this point would be unwise. 

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Marcus Ashworth in London at mashworth4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net