Markets

Marcus Ashworth is a Bloomberg Gadfly columnist covering European markets. He spent three decades in the banking industry, most recently as chief markets strategist at Haitong Securities in London.

A first estimate of U.K. GDP should never be taken too literally. But after Thursday's report showed the economy doing much better than expected post-Brexit, the Bank of England will almost certainly revise higher its forecasts for both inflation and growth -- if it hadn't already. 

All talk of a further rate cut, after the controversial 25 basis point post-Brexit reduction, has rapidly disappeared. On top of that, the new May government's supporting the Hinkley Point nuclear power plant and a third runway at Heathrow. And Nissan's promised to keep investing in its northern England plant now that it's received "support and assurances" from the government.

What's more, the Chancellor's budget statement next month could even see VAT drop from 20 percent to 17.5 percent. A get-straight-to-the-grass-roots Keynesian measure if ever there was one.

But lest we forget: Rate cut + QE + sterling crash + infrastructure mania + indirect tax cut = inflation. Investors have spotted this, and are positioned accordingly.

No Rate Cuts Here, Mr. Governor
A Bank of England rate cut isn't on the cards, according to 90-day sterling futures.
Source: Bloomberg

This double whammy of fiscal stimulus and Carney's preemptive monetary aggression will likely prove too much. It certainly can't last all the way through a two-year purgatory for wrapping up Article 50. 

Kristin Forbes, one of the more hawkish members of the bank's Monetary Policy Committee, was one of three dissenters to extending quantitative easing in August. She could become much more vocal on her objections to the program, both for government and corporate bonds.

Not to mention the governor. Despite Mark Carney taking the credit for a robust post-Brexit economy and stock market, he might have to eat his hat and rein back the largess.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Marcus Ashworth in London at mashworth4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Jennifer Ryan at jryan13@bloomberg.net