{"id":45074,"date":"2026-02-26T12:34:35","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T17:34:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/company\/press\/bpmoney-agriculture-2026-executives-reinforce-data-to-reduce-volatility\/"},"modified":"2026-02-26T12:34:35","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T17:34:35","slug":"bpmoney-agriculture-2026-executives-reinforce-data-to-reduce-volatility","status":"publish","type":"press","link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/company\/press\/bpmoney-agriculture-2026-executives-reinforce-data-to-reduce-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"BPMoney – Agriculture 2026: Executives reinforce data to reduce volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Brazil’s BPMoney <\/a>ran this story summarizing our Farm, Food & Fuel event in Portuguese. Here is the English translation.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pressured exchange rates, high interest rates, and climate risk increase the margin of error; the sector is betting on data, hedging, and standardized metrics to gain predictability.<\/p>\n

Brazilian agribusiness<\/strong> enters 2026 with a combination of factors that reduces the room for guesswork: a more volatile exchange rate<\/strong>, high financial costs, and recurring climate risk<\/strong>. This trio increases the margin of error in crop, logistics, and cash flow decisions, and therefore demands more technical management than in previous cycles. This interpretation gained strength in S\u00e3o Paulo during the Bloomberg Farm,<\/strong> Food & Fuel event<\/strong>, which brought together executives to discuss the challenges of the supply chain, from planning to risk management.<\/p>\n

The common thread in the conversations led by Eduardo Passarelli, Head of Corporate Sales at Bloomberg in the United States and Latin America<\/strong>, was this: the sector doesn’t lose competitiveness due to a lack of scale. It loses it when it makes decisions too late, with incomplete information and without adequate protection. In this environment, independent data and standardized metrics move from being merely “supportive” to dictating strategy.<\/p>\n

Exchange rates, interest rates, and climate: why 2026 is likely to be more difficult.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The volatility of the Brazilian real appears as one of the main operational risks. The exchange rate influences input prices, export revenues, and margin readings, and the market already incorporates, in part, fiscal uncertainties and the electoral cycle. Thus, an abrupt variation changes the producer’s budget and also the timing of sales.<\/p>\n

At the same time, credit remains expensive. With high interest rates, the cost of carrying inventory, financing operating expenses, and rolling over debt weighs more heavily. Therefore, the word of the year tends to be predictability<\/strong>: maintaining cash flow, planning disbursements, and avoiding surprises.<\/p>\n

The weather, however, amplifies the dispersion of results. In other words, the average may be good, but the difference between an “excellent harvest” and a “failed harvest” grows. Consequently, risk management ceases to be an isolated area and begins to influence production decisions.<\/p>\n

Hedging and benchmarks: the discipline that has returned to the center of agriculture.<\/strong><\/p>\n

With increased risk on the horizon, there is a growing appetite for hedging instruments<\/strong> and independent benchmarks<\/strong> to guide decisions. This applies to currency, commodity prices, and even logistics costs. In practice, the sector seeks to “lock in” part of the outcome, rather than relying on a single scenario.<\/p>\n

This trend is particularly important because costs remain under pressure. The exchange rate for fertilizers remains unfavorable at various points in the cycle, while logistical bottlenecks continue to drive up expenses. Thus, even when productivity improves, margins don’t automatically “breathe.”<\/p>\n

Export and competition: Asian demand on the daily radar<\/p>\n

Brazil remains competitive in grains and livestock. However, global competition is intensifying, and exporters need to keep a close eye on it.<\/p>\n