High-Bandwidth Memory Chip Market Could Grow to $130 Billion by 2033, According to Bloomberg Intelligence

The report shows that HBM chip market is set to grow at an annual rate of 42% between now and 2033, due to its importance to AI computing

SK Hynix is poised to keep its position as lead supplier given the company’s first-mover advantage and technology expertise

New York, January 13, 2025 — A new report from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) shows that the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chip market is set to grow from $4 billion in 2023 to $130 billion by the end of the decade, driven by the explosive growth of AI computing as workloads quickly expand.

BI finds that performance could be a top priority for customers as AI chips require memory with high speed, which could drive higher prices as the technology evolves and new generations are introduced. As such, the market is set to expand at an average of 42% a year, making it more than 50% of the overall dynamic random access memory (DRAM) market in 2033 and comprising 10% of industry bit shipments — all led by the growing demand for AI infrastructure.

AI chips will likely see continued memory-content expansion per chip, aiding pricing strength by keeping supply tight even as capacity among HBM suppliers increases rapidly. New generations of HBMs as the technology develops may also lead to pricing boosts that help rapidly grow the HBM market.

Jake Silverman, Technology Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and the lead author of the report said: “We’re witnessing an explosive growth period for the HBM market, as demand for HBM chips grows to keep up with an increasing number of large language models (LLMs) for AI. If the number of parameters for LLMs continues to rise until 2033 at a similar rate to its current performance, HBM demand could even exceed 8.7 billion GB. As demand for AI continues to grow, we expect the HBM market to continue to grow to meet it.”

The next generation of HBM, dubbed HBM4, is expected to be introduced in 2H25/2026 and contribute to market revenue meaningfully by 2027. This generation may require a more complicated manufacturing process that would reduce the number of dies per wafer and increase input costs, with a predicted pricing increase of 20% over the current HBM3E.

SK Hynix is expected to remain the leading global HBM supplier over the next decade, but its market share may decrease from 50% to 40% as companies like Micron and Samsung catch up on technology and expand their capacity. The report suggests that Samsung may narrow its technology gap as HBM4 enters production, partly because the new customizable logic dies allow for differentiated approaches to HBM and AI chip connection, allowing Samsung to remain more competitive with SK Hynix. Bloomberg Intelligence expects that SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron could have market shares of approximately 40%, 35%, and 23% respectively in 2033.

Production capacity for the HBM industry is expected to double annually between 2023 and 2026, but supply and demand may still remain tight as demand for HBM chips is expected to continue to increase. Oversupply is not expected until 2033 due to HBMs highly customizable nature.

The full HBM Deep Dive is available to Bloomberg Terminal subscribers who can access the report via {BI<GO>}.

Contact
Oktavia Catsaros
Bloomberg Intelligence
ocatsaros@bloomberg.net

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