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Bloomberg Global Poll: China Won’t Let Yuan Rise Soon in Poll

September 22, 2010

  Bloomberg Global Poll: China Won’t Let Yuan Rise Soon in Poll Signaling No.
  1 Economy

Almost Seven in Ten Investors Expect China to Revalue Yuan by a Few Percent or
                             Less against Dollar

 Majority of Investors Expect China to Become World’s Largest Economy within
Two Decades; Poll Divided on Whether China’s Position Will Help or Hurt Other
                              Developed Markets

Business Wire

NEW YORK -- September 22, 2010

Most global investors expect China to become the world’s biggest economy over
the next two decades, and they are divided over whether that will help or hurt
the economies of other industrialized countries.

There’s also a strong consensus that China won’t move very aggressively to
increase the value of its currency by the end of next year, according to a
global quarterly poll of 1,408 investors, analysts and traders who are
Bloomberg subscribers.

Almost seven in ten (68%) expect China to revalue the yuan by a few percent or
less against the dollar, rather than a surge like the yuan’s roughly 20
percent rise between 2005 and 2008.

The full story is online at:

While the largest percentage of those surveyed say China’s economic growth
will provide a bigger market for exports from other nations, some investors
worry that China’s rise will hurt labor markets in competing nations, and a
quarter of respondents expect a stronger China will push up oil and
agriculture prices.

More than half of respondents (57%) in the Bloomberg Global Poll say they are
bullish about China’s prospects for long-term investments, in contrast to
about a third of investors (32%) who take a bearish view. They split more
evenly over how China’s ascent will affect other major economies.

China overtook Japan in the second quarter as the world’s second-largest
economy, and it is the second largest U.S. trading partner. Along with Brazil,
China led the list of most attractive investment locations in the survey, with
33 percent of investors citing it as the country with the best opportunities
over the next year.

Investors see China’s prospects as better than those of its neighbor, Japan,
which 30 percent of respondents cited as the worst place to invest over the
next year. At the same time, many expected that Japan’s efforts to weaken its
currency won’t bear much fruit.

Four out of 10 investors (41%) expect the yen to appreciate against the dollar
in the next year, even though Japan intervened last week in the currency
markets for the first time since 2004. About a quarter of respondents (24%)
expected the yen would remain about the same against the dollar, and another
25 percent predicted some depreciation.

The quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll is based on interviews Sept. 16-17 with a
random sample of 1,408 Bloomberg subscribers. The survey, taken by Des Moines,
Iowa-based Selzer & Co., has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage

Almost two-thirds of investors (64%) said there is a bubble in Chinese
property markets, with one in five investors (20%) disagreeing.

These concerns don’t appear to dampen China’s prospects for growth. Most
respondents expect China will become the world’s largest economy, with 26
percent predicting its ascent in the next 10 years and another 38 percent
seeing such growth within two decades.


Kristin Swenson, +1 212-617-4264