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A North Korea Nuclear Strike on Tokyo and Seoul Could Kill 2.1 Million

As U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to destroy North Korea, even some of his closest aides have warned of the potentially disastrous effects of a war. New research published on the 38 North website points to just how catastrophic the impact might be on the regime’s neighbors.

If Kim Jong Un were to launch a nuclear attack on Seoul and Tokyo -- both within striking distance of his weapons -- as many as 2.1 million people could die and another 7.7 million could be injured, according to the 38 North report.

Read more: What a war might look like - a QuickTake Q&A

The analysis by Michael J. Zagurek Jr., a consultant specializing in databases and computer modeling, is based on North Korea’s current estimated weapons technology and bomb strength. Zagurek assumes Kim has a baseline arsenal of 20-25 warheads and the capacity to put them on ballistic missiles.

Concerns about a nuclear conflict in North Asia have increased as Kim accelerates his program of acquiring weapons capable of hitting the continental U.S., and as Trump threatens preemptive military action. While the chance of a direct attack on U.S. allies Japan and South Korea remains slim, Zagurek said history was replete with miscalculation by “rational actors” during crisis situations.

North Korea’s foreign minister last month said the regime’s possible next steps include testing a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean.

North Korea’s older warheads have yields in the 15-25 kiloton range, around the size of the bombs that devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Fatality estimates rise significantly if North Korea were able to strike with bombs similar to the one it tested on Sept. 3, which had a likely yield of 108-205 kilotons, Zagurek said.

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