The Ticker Quick Views on Politics, Economics and Finance
(Corrects title of Mario Draghi in third paragraph.)
The U.S. stock market is tanking the day after Barack Obama retook the presidency. What could it mean? Our best guess: With the election decided, investors have reawakened to the reality of an impending fiscal disaster in the U.S. and a festering crisis in Europe.READ MORE
Coal power was a widespread loser in yesterday’s election. Despite singing its praises as loudly as possible, Mitt Romney was unable to use his support for coal to defeat Barack Obama in Virginia and Ohio.READ MORE
Predictions of the death of the Northeast Republicans proved premature in 2010, when the party picked up a total of 10 House seats in New England and New York, not to mention a surprise Senate seat in Massachusetts in a special election earlier that year.
In 2012, the party is back in critical care. Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate lost in three New England states. The liberal Democrat Elizabeth Warren routed Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts. In Maine, Angus King, a former governor and an independent who is expected to caucus with the Democrats, sailed past his Republican challenger to replace Olympia Snowe, the Republican moderate who is retiring. And wrestling magnate Linda McMahon, a Republican, was beaten in her $42 million-plus battle against Democratic Representative Chris Murphy to replace Joe Lieberman in the Senate.READ MORE
(Corrects headline, third, fourth and fifth paragraph of a story published Nov. 7 to reflect that the vote would reform California’s sentencing law.)
California’s tax-increase and union- reform initiatives received most of the national attention in the run-up to Election Day. But two significant criminal-justice initiatives also came before voters.READ MORE
His party didn’t particularly want to be reinvented, preferring to believe that the rhetoric and positioning of 1980 and 1984 could win again in the America of 2012. You could see this belief at work in the confidence with which many conservatives insisted that the Obama presidency was not only embattled but self-evidently disastrous.READ MORE
Colorado and Washington became the first states to legalize marijuana for recreational purposes yesterday, and Massachusetts voters approved an initiative eliminating civil and criminal penalties for the medicinal use of the drug.
Will these measures be a further move toward the localization of drug policy? Can the U.S. turn away from a national drug ban toward more local heterogeneity and control?READ MORE
Unions went for broke in Michigan and they lost big time.
Michigan voters soundly defeated a measure that would have given public-sector unions a potent tool to challenge any law -- past, present or future -- limiting their benefits and powers. It would also have permanently barred Michigan from becoming a right-to-work state where payment of dues is no longer required as a condition of employment in unionized companies.READ MORE
After going 0-for-32 in states where gay marriage was on the ballot through this summer, gay marriage won in all four states where it was on the ballot last night. Gay marriage backers should get comfortable with that, as they are likely to be going to the polls a lot over the next decade.
In Maine, Maryland and Washington, gay marriage will now be legal. Minnesota voters rejected a constitutional ban on gay marriage; they also returned both houses of their legislature to Democratic majorities, so watch for legislative action on gay marriage this year.READ MORE
Margaret Carlson & Ramesh Ponnuru
Margaret: Let us be grateful, Ramesh, for small victories against the Republicans' coarsening of America. Let us join as parents in celebrating the second defeat of Linda McMahon, who sought to buy a U.S. Senate seat in Connecticut. She made her fortune on the premise that professional wresting wasn’t vulgar enough -- appearing in the ring herself in dominatrix gear -- yet successfully lobbying to get the programming a PG rating.READ MORE
Whatever else happened this Election Day, marriage equality passed another important milestone. Maine became the first state to legalize same-sex marriage at the ballot box. Maryland voters approved a similar measure.READ MORE
The victory of Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts marks the arrival in the Senate of a major new figure in American politics.
To be effective, she will have to lay low for a few years, as Hillary Clinton and Al Franken did. We’ll see if she has the patience and good sense to do so. But if she does, she will have a long and illustrious career.READ MORE
Elizabeth Warren is living proof that taking on the banks can be very good for your career.
Just a few years ago, Warren was a little-known law professor at Harvard University, focusing on consumer debt and bankruptcy issues. Today, she’s a U.S. senator from Massachusetts after unseating Republican Scott Brown. Her soaring trajectory is thanks to one thing: The Democrat spoke truth to power about Wall Street.READ MORE
There was never much doubt who was going to win Indiana tonight: Mitt Romney has taken the state back from President Barack Obama fairly easily. But we can still learn something from the returns in this early-closing state.
The best microcosm may be Vigo County, on the Illinois border, west of Indianapolis. Since 1888, the residents of the county seat, Terre Haute, have sided with the presidential winner in all but two races. In 2008, Obama won the county by nearly 16 percent over John McCain, more than two and a half times the cushion George W. Bush had over John Kerry in 2004.READ MORE
Even before the (notoriously inaccurate) exit polling comes in, here are some early voting numbers to chew on.
Bloomberg Businessweek's Joshua Green received some early voting/absentee voting data from the micropolling outfit Catalist: "Colorado: 1,853,586 total votes -- 44% Democratic, 43% Republican, 12% Independent ... Ohio: 1,442,536 total votes -- 50% Democratic, 36% Republican, 14% Independent."READ MORE
Long lines at many polling sites across the U.S., especially in areas along the East Coast affected by Hurricane Sandy, make it tempting to ask: "Why are we waiting in line when we could be voting online?"READ MORE
Which presidential candidate does the market want to win? A quick and imperfect look at the data suggests that, if anything, it's rooting just slightly for President Barack Obama.
Teasing out the market's preference is no easy task. Looking at how stocks and bonds move when one or the other candidate is rising in the polls is far from ideal, because the causality could go either way. Maybe stock prices are rising because the incumbent's poll numbers are improving, or maybe the poll numbers are improving because good economic data are pushing up stock prices.READ MORE
The nerd wars among different tribes of election prognosticators have been surprisingly vicious, given that they’re all basing their forecasts on the same thing: polls asking people whom they intend to vote for. But what if this is the wrong question?
I think it is.READ MORE
YouTube wants your vote. And it could get you in trouble.
"We want to see and hear from you tomorrow," says the video-sharing site's official blog. "Whether you’re vlogging about which candidate you support, capturing footage of the long line at your polling place, or encouraging your friends to get out of the house and go vote, we’re inviting you to send us your Election Day videos."READ MORE