Vali Nasr

The word “breakthrough” has been uttered hopefully in anticipation of the meeting May 23 in Baghdad of officials from six world powers and Iran to resolve the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program. A positive meeting last month in Istanbul kindled a sense of momentum.

The snarling between the U.S. and Pakistan won’t let up. The battle began, of course, when U.S. forces sneaked into Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden last May.

Last week, President Barack Obama skillfully shifted the debate on Iran, pushing back against “idle talk of war” and making the case for diplomacy.

Syria has arrived at a tipping point. After months in which the regime of President Bashar al- Assad clearly held the dominant hand, the forces arrayed against him have now multiplied to the point where a serious battle is possible.

The latest warning by Iran, that a U.S. aircraft carrier that recently transited through the Strait of Hormuz should not do so again, is a sign to the West that should be well-observed. It tells us the regime in Tehran is ready for a fight.

It wasn’t so long ago that the Obama administration was proudly proclaiming success in dealing with Iran, succeeding where the Bush administration had failed. For a time, a presumably weakened and isolated Iran was less of a worry.

Iran is once again in America’s cross hairs. Even before the allegations of an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, concerns about Iran were high, with an impending U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq possibly leading to increased Iranian influence there. U.S. opinion and decision makers are expanding their estimate of Iran’s adventurousness and calling for new containment measures.

Now that the U.S. has openly accused Pakistan of helping plan and conduct the attack earlier this month on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, the Obama administration’s exit strategy from Afghanistan is looking increasingly cloudy.

Six months after the fall of the Mubarak regime, Egypt remains in disarray. Protesters continue to take to the streets demanding change, while dozens of secular and Islamist parties jockey for power with the all-powerful military in anticipation of elections in November.

Turkey was quick to cheer the Arab Spring, when hopeful protest seemed to promise a democratic Middle East in Turkey’s own image. But the momentum for reform has stalled, and if developments in Libya, Yemen and Syria are any indication, the Arab world is headed for protracted conflict and instability. That worries Turkey.