Long and variable lags. That’s all I could think of yesterday when I read the Federal Reserve statement and learned that... READ MORE

Conventional wisdom holds that presidential candidates, once they secure their party’s nomination, tack to the center... READ MORE

The U.S. recession may have ended in June 2009, according to the official arbiter of the business cycle. But by all... READ MORE

A forecast is a forecast. In many cases, it’s not worth the paper it’s printed on. READ MORE

It’s that time of year again when people in my line of work (“profession” is probably a stretch given the low esteem in... READ MORE

When statisticians use the term "sample selection bias," they are referring to a flaw in the selection process that... READ MORE

If you were asked to describe, in 10 words or less, the single issue driving the two major political parties in the U.S.... READ MORE

On Feb. 15, 1999, Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin and Larry Summers were featured on the cover of Time magazine as “The... READ MORE

The spectacle of hordes of shoppers schlepping through the mall at midnight with children in tow, stuffing their carts... READ MORE

It took a fictional jury of “12 Angry Men” 96 minutes to agree on a verdict of not guilty. It took “12 good people,” as... READ MORE