We Underestimate How Much Putin Wants Crimea: Tchir

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March 14 (Bloomberg) -- TF Market Advisors' Peter Tchir and William Pomeranz, director of the Keenan Institute of Advanced Russian Studies, discuss the Crimea vote on a referendum on joining Russia. Bloomberg's Peter Cook also comments.(Source: Bloomberg)

Sanctions if russia takes over crimea.

Is that going to be enough or do we run the risk putin is going to take around?

I think he is.

He wants it.

The people of crimea wanted.

My family is from ukraine.

There is a clear distinction between east and west and the people in crime area --crimea are comfortable under russian control.

If they want it, shouldn't it be?

Shouldn't we allow the will of the people to determine their own national fate?

We should, but the russians are proceeding in a way not in compliance with international law.

There has to be a recognition crimea is a part of ukraine.

If there was going to be any referendum on crimea longing, it would have to be pursuant to cranium law.

This is a violation of international treaties.

What kind of president would we be setting if he took over the area?

There are very precedents dealing with this issue but in this instance, when a peninsula has been occupied militarily, where there is a rush to have this referendum, and there is no reason, it raises questions of international law.

It does not matter.

If the people wanted to join russia, then what is to stop them?

I would not say it is russia taking over crimea.

They are joining.

If that is the case.

Matt , from the u.s. perspective, i heard john kerry yesterday talking about this issue.

He mentioned in his press conference if you allow this to happen in crimea it does send a message, not just to the baltic states and neighbors, but to china as well.

He made the case there is a u.s. national interest in make ensure that international law is abided by in crimea and elsewhere.

He said, listen, if you put it to vote, they would join russia.

But it should happen under the proper circumstances following the ukrainian constitution.

That is the off ramps they have tossed to the russians and so far they have not taken advantage.

Maybe toronto would say we want to be part of the u.s., you are canadian.

Does that mean we should actually say ok?

What is that?

Look at scotland right now, what is happening there.

It is happening, everyone knows what is happening.

We don't want to send the message it is ok for a nation's people to determine its own fate.

With the u.s. give up guantanamo bay?

This is very similar to how russia views crimea.

They have a military base.

The people want to be part of it.

They are trying to reclaim this.

I don't know.

Can we trust what we're hearing?

You have a lot of russian paid politicians in this region of ukraine.

Whatever we see in terms of the vote, william, can you trust it is authentic?

We do not know how the vote is going to be prepared.

It is coming under difficult circumstances.

The military has occupied crimea and it is being very rushed.

It gets back to the question of international law, but also does russia want to set this precedent?

After all russia has various regions within its federation, chechnya, various parts of the region and surely it does not want to set the president where self-determination is decided by the voters of a region.

This is rushed and i think this works against the interests of the federation.

Is there any chance putin will stop at crimea?

He wants that port.

That is his one warm water port.

Logically it makes sense to want to have control over the region.

Do we have to anticipate, could go further?

That is what we are waiting to see, whether it stops with the referendum or whether putin escalates the crisis and russia continues to execute exercises and there is a fear this will not end after sunday.

Peter, what do we look forward to next week?

Was the u.s. slaps sanctions on russia?

I think it is clear something is going to happen on monday.

If the referendum goes forward.

There is no indication it is going to stop.

If the russians take the next step to effectively annex crimea , and i think the sanctions would ratchet up even higher.

I think they will be calibrated and tougher than what we have heard, but there will be room for diplomacy, but i would absolutely be convinced that the u.s. will move on monday, if not soon after.

Thank you very much, have peter, william, and peter tchir,

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.

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