Affect immediate sanctions?
Richard falk and roth is with us.
A former white house security advisor, bloomberg contributing editor.
-- richard falk anden rath is with us.
They're going to little effect other than to reinforce the symbolic protest of the west -- because russia can come running.
Simply supply the press of gas.
What is it will we can do?
Europe job, brussels has a statement, i do not get any sense of a two dude list for the west.
It is not at all clear what they can do other than take a position and maintain it to the best of their ability.
This is a crisis that is going to be settled by ukrainians and maybe russians but nobody else.
The role of the outside world and this crisis is really rather modest.
This is in an area where we are regarded to intervene militarily.
That is absolutely clear.
Enormously west have have already been established.
There are no effective effectiveness of state.
From the bloomberg terminal, ucd concerning the -- ucd continuing stream, you have got the key of meir talking about -- the kiev mayor trying to get to some sense of reality.
Let's share with the president had to say.
Our approach ofas the u.s. is not to see this as some cold war chessboard in which we are in competition with russia.
Our goal is to make sure the people of ukraine are able to make decisions for themselves about their future, that the people of syria are able to make decisions without having bombs going off and killing women and children -- richard, i understand the concept -- we want to help them make decisions for themselves, but how do we actually do that?
They need to get some sort of reconciliation going so they can have an election, possibly at our agreement and a shift in government.
Yanukovych has said he is not going anywhere.
As long as that is the case and he is willing to use force, there will be lunch at and there's nothing the west can really do.
One of the things that has happened is the protest has changed.
When it started in november, it was about the traditional east- west divide people protesting his decision not to continue to move for the european union.
Now it is a much broader protest against corruption, dictatorship, poor economic performance, and general hostility toward the regime.
Ian bremmer was with us yesterday from "time" magazine, and he went right to your point, which is that dialogue has changed.
His key points are the russians and the russians centric ukrainians in eastern or north and ukraine.
What do you suggest they will do?
The current regime is ready to fight to hold onto power and not let things go.
That is an age-old division, and what is interesting though is there are some sites of report that the popularity among those sectors in the east, traditional base, are flipping as well, objections -- meanwhile in the rest, the region called lviv want to separate.
How concerned should europe be about that.
They should because it would be war.
It would look like yugoslavia again.
Already six debt over the last couple of days is nothing when it comes to blows along ethnic lines when it did 20 years ago in another part of europe.
We have been talking about whether hundreds could do.
I want to bring in my morning must-read from the "wall street journal," he talks about there are no two putins.
Can we buy pulling out of sochi or by boycotting the sochi ceremony on their sunday ensure that the winter limits will not go down as the games that were the defeat of europe?
It is not going to happen.
Even if they did pull out of the olympic silver that come it would be symbolic of course, but this -- putin has had a hand in this and putin is not a democrat.
It is a more complicated situation than just vladimir putin suppressing -- this is critical.
We are honored to have with us dr.
Falkenrath and david kirkpatrick, the "facebook effect," gone is your world of social media immediacy to kiev is remarkable.
What can the u.s. do to help them decide for themselves?
We have already done an enormous amount by providing facebook and twitter and other tools that have emerged from our economy that are major factors in what has allowed the citizens of the ukraine and syria -- all these countries -- not always with the greatest long-term consequences -- richard, does vladimir putin care about twitter?
Care about twitter?
Social media accelerates certain dynamics in these countries, but the countries have followed apart and go to war before facebook and twitter can around.
But the acceleration of the contribution our economy has given.
When will we see civil war?
Hopefully we don't. there is a small urchin of the right now in the central square and it is in the hands of the ukrainians.
It is not up to us, it is not up to anyone on the outside to decide this.
That is how these things often go.
Your ability to influence from the outside is extremely limited.
The backdrop here is a totally failed economic experiment.
We forget that we move from putin and we move from russell's -- why is this economy -- we move from brussels.
Why has this economy failed so much?
Pipelines carry natural gas that is brought to the cert -- the surface in russia that goes through the ukraine and heads to europe.
You can see the flow.
There is the map.
Not only that, the ukraine have a lot of natural gas.
A just don't have the resources and the lack of corruption to develop it.
Adam, that looks like your grand tour when you got out of college.
Of the grantor i would like to have taken, but given what is happening now, i am certainly glad i'm not doing it.
Richard, this whole thing began because president yanukovych signed a trade deal with russia rather than with europe.
The people said no, we want to bond with europe.
How to sell possibly get results over the next two months?
It will not be resolved with yanukovych and the european union.
The new ukrainian government could resume dialogue with the european union and see if they can get this deal back, but there has to be a governmental change by then.
It started as a protest to that decision by yanukovych, which was coerced by russia, that is clear.
This important point out of this conversation -- it is much bigger than that.
This is no longer the flow of oil.
And particularly the culturally oriented -- those who are culturally oriented toward the west, that is how it was in november.
Now it is much broader.
It is a very diverse set of protesters, and i think the classes that we have seen were likely precipitated by an element along -- among the protesters.
Not all of them, but a few of them said we need to take the fight to the police, we need to do it now while the world is watching.
This is how we will get them on our side.
They likely initiated this and then the police forces retaliated with a brutality.
Richard falkenrath, thank you so much.
Somehow i think we will see you tomorrow or the next day.
I suspect we will be.
The russian ruble is taking a hit.
Some of the lowest prices we've seen for the russian ruble.
Yes, there's a lot to talk about.
"bloomberg surveillance," on bloomberg television, streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg.com.
Tom, alix, and i will be right back.
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