This is "bloomberg surveillance." we are on dow 17,000 watch.
Well apple join the dow jones industrial average?
I take uber.
Adam takes uber.
Can we get shares in the ipo?
It is monday, june 9. joining me adam johnson.
Alix steel is in for scarlet fu.
Let's get to our monday brief.
We will kick it off in asia.
Japan's economy growing faster than estimated in the first quarter.
In china, the trade surplus almost doubled.
They world is buying chinese products which suggests there is growth in the global economy.
Economic data here in the usa.
Earnings in the u.s. today, zilch.
However, as you just pointed out, the rangers game 3 is tonight.
They are down to 0-2. president obama is greeting the connecticut huskies who the ncaa earlier this year.
And nate commissioner of the nhl will join us.
-- and the commissioner of the nhl will join us.
Then we will do lunch.
We will look at commodities after the jobs report.
The s&p, of course, what a closing.
We are on dow 17,000 watch.
Euro nymex don't do much this morning.
Onto our second screen, the vix well under 11. it shows bull market enthusiasm.
There is the dow again.
Euro-yen bears scrutiny to 1.40. that would be stronger euro, weaker yen.
Call it the anti-drug and move -- the anti-drahgi move.
This is just the s&p 500 with some moving averages.
These are two standard deviations of price movement, of volatility.
I call this writing the rail.
We are right on the edge of moving up, showing the market line with that enthusiasm versus where we would be if we were gloomy.
In other words, let me try to wrap my head around that.
These are two standard deviations, meaning 97% should be within the bad.
The upper end of the band means maybe we are a little extended.
But the word grind comes in.
We are just grinding higher every day as we go.
We scoured the newspapers.
We looked at the website.
Here is our homepage.
Our top story has to be over -- uber.
It values the company at $17 billion, of from 3.5 billion dollars in financing last year.
What is so striking about this is that it was not just big-name investors getting in here.
These are mutual funds.
Because it's good, that's why.
Uber is now worth more than hurts and best buy -- more than hertz and best buy.
There are reports that revenue doubles every six months.
They are creating about 20,000 jobs a month.
What i love about -- the world never stops over the weekend.
There were a lot of articles saying, yeah, yeah, it's a joke.
A smart article saying that, like amazon, just capturing the market.
One of our themes here this morning is uber.
Our second story to watch is tyson foods in a battle to acquire his shire brands offering almost a billion dollars more than rival pilgrims pride.
Tyson offered 63 in cash per share.
Valuing the company at $7.7 billion.
That is an unbelievable evaluation for that company.
It is about diversification for tyson as well.
Margins are so bad.
Nothing can actually take place until he'll share dumps its own bid for pinnacle.
That was on contingent on either phil shares.
. our story of the day is selling wake.
The idea is credit suisse is trying to move clients over to that unit and would like to sell parts to reduce capital requirements.
Also should point out that they go pretty far and say that credit suisse has the clients but they don't share the information.
I will be honest, i am not up to this.
Fix trading, business is so hard.
It is hard to make markets.
Not to mention the fact there is greater regulation.
I would say one of the big themes june and july is this idea -- where will we be on labor day for wall street as we come to the end of the quarter june 30? and how companies react to try to make money from this.
By about october-november, there is a huge push.
If you don't get it, people get laid off at christmas.
Those are our front page stories.
Wonderful to have you here.
Good to be here.
Scarlet is in therapy with mr.
It is not looking good for him.
Scarlet, where are you?
Our guest host for the are is a believer in the bull market.
Senior u.s. equities strategist at wells fargo.
We are honored to bring you really perfect timing with this uber.
Transaction senior advisor at weber pincus and the author of capitalism in the u.s. economy, he is truly one of the wall street great thinkers on the age of finance into the markets.
I am going to call you a reluctant bull.
You've been, yeah, i'm on board, but as we marked 17,000, the cne end to this bull market -- do you see any end to this bull market?
You have to be in this market?
You have to be in this market as long as the price trends are very solid.
You have to be pretty selective in this market.
It will be tough to buy and hold the index as the bull ages and make consistent high returns on the index.
But within the index, the opportunities are still there.
You've got a real eager -- not so much to the retail investor, but the high net worth investor bounced around by this financial crisis.
What is the mood you see when you go out to clients?
Still some reluctance.
When i go to client meetings, what do i buy.
He valuations are pretty expensive.
Again, looking beneath the headline.
It is not just a by-and-hold-the-index anymore.
It is expensive to buy stocks.
I am thunderstruck by the lack of enthusiasm.
I just don't have a handle on that other than this weekend.
It is not like dow 11,000 or dow 12,000 in 2006. the traders i talked to her so depressed even though the market is so high.
Part of it is momentum stocks have been -- have not been holding out.
Of course, we saw the crazy valuation which saw for uber.
We could see a $17 billion uber.
Is it worth it?
The critical part is that it was established by people who were buying a liquidity.
Mutual funds that are market players that get to change their minds on a dime or at 17,000 do not get to change their mind.
If they decide maybe it is only worth 12 million, maybe it is only worth 30 times revenues instead of 60 times revenues, that is the critical issue in this kind of momentum investing in technology, whether you are buying liquidity and you can change your mind or whether you are stuck until the environment changes.
What does it tell you when a startled mutual fund is going that far out on the risk spectrum and bidding on -- and betting on something that has yet to be proven?
When the market-oriented investors came into the late stage private deals on the grounds that they were going to make money on the ipo that had not yet happened, that was the time that we took my entire portfolio and give it to the market in 18 months.
That is why i'm here.
[laughter] is it lemmings off a cliff again?
First of all, the point that you can't be out of this market, momentum investing is absolutely built into the market process, particularly when you have professional money managers managing other people's money.
If you are not in the market, if you're not following the trend, they will take some anyway.
So momentum investing is built-in and the momentum will continue until it is being reversed.
But second, on the technology side, you also have to remember that back in 99 -- in 1999-2000, uber has identified that we are not through with the digital revolution.
The opportunities to invest and the new services that were unimaginable.
This perspective that there is no limit.
That is what pulls and the investors who think they are marketed.
One of the few people that actually gets what innovation means, we will talk about that through the morning.
Would you buy into an uber ivo with a $17 billion valuation?
It is a fascinating story.
Uber and their ipo at $17 million.
Let's get to monday company news.
Netflix holds its annual shareholder meeting today.
And proposal to separate the roles of chairman and ceo.
Both are currently held by reed hastings.
Final pricing for the initial public offering, lloyds will be selling shares in the range of 220 and 290.10. it's about $2.15 billion.
And kraft raises its prices of maxwell house brands.
Kraft cited gains in the green coffee market for the changes.
The cost surged more than 55% this year in brazil's worst drought in decades.
But it is a bummer for kraft having to raise prices.
You drink coffee.
We should care.
An espresso machine proudly sits behind the computer.
I will drink cocoa the next hour.
We have seen soft commodities go up this year while others, like copper, have not.
It was almost $700 on friday.
Today, it is under $100. we are talking apple.
Why they did it.
We discussed with bill janeway as well as tina martin it.
Good morning, everyone.
We welcome all of you year to our headquarters in new york city on a monday.
Scarlet fu is off today.
Right now, let's get to alix steel on apple.
Apple at $92. would you have thought that 10 years ago?
Will apple's price now be low enough to become part of a dow jones industrial average, cementing a transition from a growth stock to a value stock?
Jonathan ferro has been watching this closely.
Is this the next up for apple?
It removes the obstacle.
You drop below $100 and a price weighted index and they may even consider it.
But what i will say on the dow, it is not automatic.
It will not happen overnight.
It could take 12 months.
It could take 24 months.
The last time it happened was in december.
But at least it moves the obstacle.
The culture still exists, if a stock is cheaper, you're more likely to buy it.
Apparently, it does.
You need to cut your stocks to $100. steve cook wants to make it available to a larger pool of investors.
That is his line.
Still struggling on the concept that a stock needs to be a hundred dollars for you to buy a. i think there is a letter debate on this.
Did a great job and the associated press on this today.
If you go back to 1980, 34 years, you are making 25%, 26%, honey seven percent per year.
This is -- 27% per year.
1980, 30 nine cents.
That is a good number.
I did the math.
Just a little over $100. no doubt, we will be looking for that one.
Adam, answer this for me.
Why do i care that apple is in the dow?
You don't. the dow is a flawed index.
We all say the market is up 50. the market is down a hundred.
It is a flawed and decks.
-- flawed index.
You are the strategist over at wells fargo.
It doesn't matter terribly much.
It matters for the psychological reason.
The dow 30, perceived to be one of the biggest companies in the country.
Eventually, indexes -- does it create more liquidity?
There are so few that actually track the dow.
If it were the s&p 500, then we are talking about something.
If it is the russell 1000, we are talking about something that is an index that funds are attracted to.
At the the dow isn't an attractant.
Moving from a growth company to a blue-chip company, is aptly blue-chip company?
That is a very interesting question.
Steve jobs reinvented apple by inventing whole categories of new product.
It does seem that apple has kind of moved into the brand extension business, sort of becoming a consumer staple company.
Unlikely to see going forward the kind of explosive revolutionary growth that steve jobs was responsible for.
Historically, this is what i recall from hansen pnc.
The united kingdom loves world price stock.
What you have here -- at a 10th of what you have here in the u.s. a public, he has 10 times many shares outstanding as the u.s. they goes back to the 19th century when it was all retail investors.
It goes back to when, in the old days, you got a cheaper brokerage commissions are you want to be able to buy a hundred shares at a time.
That kind of historical phenomenon becomes the convention.
If i am one of those apple junkies and i am looking at the stock now, i have to decide between the sharon and i found.
Is $90 a nice feeling for me to say, yes, i like their hot xmi could buy a share.
When was the owl a school -- when was the dow less cool?
They will actually start paying dividends.
Most people don't excite $.39 to $32 a share.
It doesn't matter if it is in the dow or the s&p 500. there is a special fund.
It is called the retrospect fund.
That way we never lose any money.
We have had a 20% pop since this was announced in apple stock.
Let's not lose sight of that.
It has had a significant move already.
Thank you so much.
Don't miss bloomberg will be at the next big summit in california today.
Emily chang, cory johnson will be joining the cofounder of paypal and many more of the very exciting day.
We will be right back.
Good monday morning, everyone.
Let's get to your top headlines to begin the week.
There was a terrible attack at the karachi airport and pakistan leaving 17 security personnel and airport personnel dead.
The taliban has claimed responsibility for this attack.
In japan's economy grew faster than estimated in the first quarter.
Gdp grew an impressive number six percent.
-- episode 6%. -- gdp grew an impressive 6%. rafael beat novak djokovic on his favorite court.
The spaniard now has 14 grand slam titles to his name.
He is 28 years old.
Think of the maturity and ability.
I am the world's worst tennis player and play is the only thing -- you are so tall.
Clay is the only thing that keeps me in.
The french open next year.
It is totally different than the others.
It's the balance.
The dow and the s&p reaching record lows.
Forget the nyse.
Here is tom serling.
The morning must-read on "bloomberg surveillance" is sponsored by columbia management.
Good morning, everyone.
The president returns.
What a day it was on friday.
Remembrances of the 70th anniversary of d-day.
The president of france, the president, the queen elizabeth.
Good morning, everyone.
I am tom keene.
With me adam johnson.
Scarlet fu is off today.
Alix steel sitting in for her.
Looking at equities bonds, currencies and commodities.
We will get to this in a moment.
Bureau-dollar one .22. it does not want to go down after the draghi festivities.
Forget the cliches.
We are on the dow 17,000 watch.
Gina bar in adams is a bull.
This is a sea change for you.
You make a real mixed shift in what you believe in.
We still believe in tech health care.
We upgraded materials.
We are starting to move into later cycle sectors.
We downgraded financials, downgraded discretionary.
We want nothing to do with interest-rate exposure.
Because rates are going higher?
Looks like the fed is inching toward rate hikes in 20 15 at sam point.
The market is already rotating that way with the under performance of discretionary's. and we are seeing some signs of life in the commodities.
Discretionary, for example, direct exposure through housing.
Financials, very direct exposure.
I think it's time for a monday morning jargon alert.
Materials, what is a material stock?
In the s&p 500, it is mostly chemicals companies are now.
You have some paper companies, some construction materials companies, and some metals and mining companies very but it is mostly chemicals.
Why is it that most types of companies are so cold lake cyclical companies -- so-called late cyclical companies?
Interest-rate sectors like housing where recovery gains momentum.
The nonresidential construction into industrial production gains.
Let's look at the non-correction.
This is the dow from early 2009. it goes up and up.
We are in a self -- the 17,000 range.
It was a big deal when it was the dow 1000. how does bill janeway adapt to the walls of worry?
There is a phrase you are never supposed to use and that's one i think we have to use.
This time is different.
We are coming off of a global financial crisis five years ago that was fully at the scale of what happened in the 1930's. this time, we did it with the public sector big enough to offset the collapse of the private sector when the banks froze.
And when the central bank was aggressive enough to star refinancing the banks.
Remember where we were five years ago and that we have only just now gotten back to the level of employment, five years later, that we were at in 2008. do you envision the market is for the weeds and the haves or will we get back to the enthusiasm i remember in the 1960's. every asset price in the economy is underwritten by a monetary policy that has never before been experienced.
The fed holding rates are down at the zero lower bound, lower rates at 2.5%-ish means that everything going on in the bond market and the stock market is conditioned on the fed's willingness and ability to continue to hold rates down.
Trying to use the stored patterns of market behavior relative to business cycles could be quite misleading at this time.
This market is running beyond and apart from the underlying economic fundamentals if we could ever find out what they are.
You just made an important statement.
You said payrolls are back to where they were before the crisis.
Except there is population growth.
We are 6 million jobs to the worst.
There is unused slack in the economy.
If only, inflation, if only.
There is slack in this economy.
There is growth potential in this economy.
I just want to follow the thought.
It is -- if that is the case, then why do you think rates are going up in 2015, which is only a year from now?
Because the fed is signaling that is what they are going to do.
The speeches of the last six weeks to eight weeks, they were talking about tapering qe and when the hike is coming.
You follow what the fed says.
Follow the fed into directions to get an idea of where they think they are headed and the market is rotating.
What is the market telling you?
Sectors are rotating in favor of the fed starting to increase interest rates.
Let's go to the note.
Which would be a good question for gina and terms of looking at the divergence between copper and the rest of the stock market because copper is thought of, hey, if you are in a late cycle, that is where you want to be.
We are not seeing that play out though.
We are seeing the industrial metals.
We have seen a recovery in ag prices and energy prices across-the-board the board but the industrial metals are lagging behind.
That is a trend you can play with in the index.
We love materials, but we love chemicals.
They like the metals and mining sector for that reason.
This is not a new trend.
We know that copper is in a bear market.
It seems to have something to do with nondomestic economic conditions.
China is mentioned quite a bit.
You play that trend.
Why does alix steel always get copper into every conversation?
With layoffs from bhp billiton, it is still a mining sector.
It is the leader, isn't it?
Yes, in terms of exposure to china, there are concerns about copper financing, which will have a huge impact on the copper market.
It is a fancy way of saying that chinese real estate developers go out and buy copper and put it in storage because it is a hard assets and creates false demand.
We will see a big negative for the -- on wall street, they never do that, right?
[laughter] re-hypothesis and -- rehypot hication.
Coming up, a well-known analyst is making predictions about the future of tv and millenials' watching habits.
Good morning, everyone.
Let's get right to our top headlines this morning.
Pope francis met the israeli and ellis dineen presidents at the vatican for a group prayer session -- israeli and palestinian presidents at the vatican for a group prayer session.
China's exports rose more than analysts estimated for the month of may.
Overseas shipments gained 7% from a year ago.
Imports fell 1.5%. miami heat tied the nba finals and in the san antonio spurs and nine-game winning streak.
Lebron james had 35 points and 10 rebounds.
The heat tied to the nba finals with a 98-96 victory.
Heating up as hockey is simmering down.
It is 2-0 l.a. it is amazing to think about what happened over the weekend.
We had belmont stakes, the nba finals, and the french open all in one weekend.
200,000 people at the belmont stakes.
And no one could get a car because the railroad was our king.
-- was not working.
Here is alix steel.
Mary meeker puts out her famous internet trends report.
She is a venture capitalist and former wall street securities analyst known as a leading technology prophet.
We will focus on her calls all week every day.
The first chart focuses on tv viewing habits of millenials versus non-millenials, so no one at this table.
Millenials are accounting for 30% viewing done online, three times more than non-millennials.
People are moving away from watching live tv.
They are losing a lot of dvr viewing, on-demand as well.
What that does in the ad market is a trickle-down effect.
It changes the way ads are presented and created.
The short form video as a people may not skip on to attract those kind of yours.
You take out sports and that is skewed even more.
I discovered something.
I realized there are now tabs within apple tv for all the networks and effectively for all the cable operators.
Unless you are live sports, you almost don't need cable.
Mary meeker is truly legendary.
Why do people like you and me read every word of a 164-page powerpoint?
Mary has been doing this a lot time.
She has a real knowledge of the evolution of technology.
Back in the 1990's, she was one of those who got the idea that there really was a new economy emerging.
Of course, it was grotesquely over valued in anticipation.
She also got that it would continue through the bust.
So mary has a strategic sense, very rare in this business.
And she was a woman back then.
It was very to be that visible.
We will feature this all way, the work of mary meeker.
Let's get to our top photos.
Where do you begin?
With number three.
We are talking about neil patrick harris and the cast of " hedwig and the angry inch" performing on stage at the tony awards.
This was last night.
The tv star won best performance.
A fine actor.
I heard he is fabulous.
I don't know if you ever saw the original.
It was amazing.
It was really gritty.
I have heard that he is absolutely incredible.
"hedwig and the angry inch" is gritty?
It was in a downtown theater that felt really old school, this sort of dirt on the ground feeling.
Something about alix steel, she was quite the off-broadway producer in her youth.
[laughter] in my millennial youth, yes.
I turned to jeremy gerard who was for years that bloomberg and is now with deadline.
It is amazing to me how much i do not care about broadway but i think it is doing really well.
I drove by radio city music hall last night.
It is booming.
I think they are doing well.
They are also moving a lot of movie stars and tv stars, which we saw in the tony's last night, onto broadway.
We saw bryan cranston win for his portrayal of lbj.
He is also known for "breaking bad." it is so unbelievably expensive to put up a show.
You need to fill the seats.
Shows lows down because the day-to-day is so expensive.
You are nodding.
Lincoln center theater all the way down to the flea.
Tonalist won the kentucky derby, beating out california chrome.
Could you go back to the photo please?
Way in the back, i can see tonya chen of our staff.
She got home at around 1:00 a.m. uber failed her, apparently.
150,000, that is so cool.
Isn't the race like funny seconds?
[laughter] can i say about the owner of california chrome, a sore loser statement at the end.
When you campaign a horse for the triple crown, you are saying we will take on and he and all challengers.
That is what makes the triple crown's a special.
Three consistent races.
. give it your best.
. we will take you on.
It is called a race.
It is supposed to be rare.
I just have to say that.
Your last photo.
Just days ahead of the world cup, fans try to get a peak of the rehearsal through a fence of the sa o paulo stadium.
Opening game is thursday.
There is concern over whether that stadium among others will be finished.
We hear that one at least is.
Hey weekend nine days in brazil getting some perspective.
There is eric with a hardhat on.
A birds eye view.
A twitter question of the day for the news of the day -- we will discuss coming up next.
Good monday morning.
After the ecb on thursday, the fed and jobs on friday, adam johnson, alix steel and i are up early and ending ourselves.
Alix steel will divert your attention.
Netflix is holding its annual shareholder meeting today.
Company investors are expecting to hear proposals to separate the chairman and ceo.
And uber has set a valuation record at $17 million.
The car service startup said it has raised 1.2 billion dollars in new financing led by fidelity investments.
Tesla ceo elon musk is handed over the keys to the first five customers of its new right-hand model s in london.
The u.k. is likely to be one of our most significant markets.
Somewhere between 3, 4 or five, i would guess.
If you order a car now, you would only receive it in about four.
We are also putting a lot of effort into the supercharger infrastructure.
We want to have funding covered by the end of this year and all of the british isles by the end of next year.
So the ever structural it is quite extensive.
We will be spending tens of millions of dollars over the next year.
Now i could be in the market for tesla.
You don't have a drivers license?
I am going to get one.
This is a big deal.
I am looking for self-driving cars.
I am part -- i am impressed by the share price.
It has been resilient.
To say the least.
Maybe there will be another surprise.
So uber gets that 1.2 billion dollar cash infusion announced on friday.
Eric creates an $18 billion valuation for the overall company.
That is tries -- that is three times what avis is worth.
Bill says he wants to transcend tactics.
He wants to be a logistics company and challenge amazon.
What would you tell him if you are advising him right now?
Raise all the money you can.
Just like i've been saying to elon musk.
He did that great convert.
Do it again.
Keep doing it.
When they are giving cash away, by cash because you're going to need it.
If you are going to play this game long and hard, amazon raised $600 million in a junk bond two weeks before the great stock market bubble burst in april 2000. if it hadn't raised the money, it would have been bused six must later.
-- it would have been but six months later.
Both of them say they will be investing in infrastructure.
It will take all the money they can see and they should be cultivating partnerships with public surface -- public sources of capital as well.
This is how we green the economy.
This is where those jobs are going to come from.
Reconstructing the infrastructure of the developed world.
Is the money being raised now from sophisticated institutional investors like fidelity sound money versus the suckers i get it in the backend?
Is there any news here?
When you get this kind of wants and aperiodic, call it half a generation opportunity, writing on the back of a fundamental technological revolution, everybody comes to the party.
Those professional money managers, they may be sophisticated but they've got to go with the trend.
They've got to stay with the momentum.
Do you care about an uber froth?
Does that help the market in general?
The fact that there are growth opportunities does help the market.
Any opportunity to leverage, you know, find growth is being celebrated.
You see it through them and a. you see from some companies producing earnings.
? -- at the end of the day, does this make uber have to answer to a lot of different investors when they need to be nimble and grow?
It is a trade.
Amazon is the great example of building a fundamental business on the back of tremendous financial speculation over the limitless potential when there is new -- when this new technology gets applied.
Now we are seeing a second wave of this.
There is a long history here.
They took a long generation for people to learn what to do with the railroads.
It took 30 years to work out how to do that.
Thank u so much.
Here is our forex report this morning.
Looking at euro-dollar at 1.26. kevin roberts will be our guest host for the next hour.
This is "bloomberg surveillance." from $647 to $92 a share, the dow jones industrial average.
Can we get shares in the ipo?
Good morning, everyone.
This is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live from our bloomberg world headquarters in new york.
Joining me, adam johnson, alix steel in for scarlet fu.
Kevin roberts, chief executive officer worldwide of saatchi & saatchi, joining us this morning on too many topics dimension.
Let's get to the brief, very brief brief.
Japan's economy grew faster than estimated in the first quarter.
And across the disputed china sea, it suggests growth in the global economy.
Economic data in the u.s., none.
Earnings in the u.s., none.
You are doing great.
[laughter] there are 2 other items we want to note.
Game three of the stanley cup is tonight in new york on msg -- i should say at msg.
In new york, on, what is it, nbc?
President obama today is back from europe.
He is greeting the uconn huskies, congratulating them on their win in the ncaa basketball tournament in march.
Alix, i was light on company-type stoc -- stuff.
Tyson foods has agreed to by hellfire brands.
They are outbidding pilgrim's pride, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Tyson is expected to pay $53 a share in cash for hill scheier.
It would fire the company at $7.8 billion, according to data compiled by bloomberg.
Credit suisse is considering selling a part of its extend from trading business.
There -- it is a joint venture with high hatred ---see trading from that high-frequency trading firm.
And of course, the biggest story out of bloomberg west, huber has set a record evaluation film $3.5 billion last year.
The car service start up raised $1.2 million in new financing led by fidelity investments.
That is today's company news.
A topic, to say the least.
Hillary clinton has not announced or 2016 candidacy but her new book certainly has the feel of a burgeoning campaign.
It is in the top 10 best selling books on amazon and has been there for the last 2 week even it doesn't come out until tuesday.
White house correspondent phil mattingly joins us from washington.
What is the biggest difference between this book and the other ones that hillary has written?
Why is it such a campaign preview?
When you look at campaign books, as without question this has to be noted as one, what hillary does that everybody else doesn't do is she is a clinton.
The top part with hillary as is compared to her past books and when she came out of the white house as first lady, it actually did great, sold 1.4 million copies, compared to most campaign books that cap out about 50,000, 60,000 copies.
That is a high bar for any campaign book and one that she is going to have to meet and if she doesn't, we are going to come after her and say she failed.
Hillary clinton spoke on "this week" on abc about the book in the campaign.
Take a listen.
I want to get through this year, travel around the country, sign books, help in the midterm elections in the fall, and then take a deep breath and go through my pluses and minuses.
Hedging, hedging -- i don't know, we'll see, we'll see.
I what point does she have to make a decision?
The first thing that has to happen is she has to figure out how many different ways she can not answer that question over the next 6 months.
What she has said at this point is by the end of this year she will have the conversation probably early next year is when we will know.
One thing and that soundbite that was actually kind of interesting, she flipped that she is going to help with the midterm elections.
We are parsing every one of her words like she is a fed chairman, but her willingness to get involved in the midterm elections this campaign-ready if you have ever seen it.
How she helps candidates is her trying to lock up endorsements for 2016. even though that seems totally innocuous, that little phrase as a tip for us.
I find fascinating, they compare and contrast to hope and audacity.
The president, whatever anybody's political persuasion, made a huge splash with that book, 8, 9 years ago.
Where is the hope and audacity and her new book?
Tom, this isn't that book.
For president obama did with that book is just different from what hillary clinton is trying to do with the book right now.
Hillary's book is an effort to chip her time as secretary of state.
You see republicans come in on the other side and they will try to counter that in a big way in the next couple weeks.
This is as much of legacy issue for her as it is setting up and giving her an opportunity to have the message for 2016. president obama's book was much more a look back onto his life.
Phil, are you going to read this book, because i didn't read the piketty book on economics.
Does anybody read the book or do they just buy so that they can tell the secretary they read the book when they see her?
There are people who didn't read the piketty book?
[laughter] a lot of people have the book in just the train -- everybody reads johenn heilmann and mark halperin.
Anybody going to read hillary clinton?
If you have an interest in the campaign you need to know every piece of this book.
We will see dozens upon dozens of top 10 lists of most important points in her book.
That makes it easier, an abridged version, cliff's notes.
I will admit, summit was able to hook me up -- somebody was able to hook me up with the book last night.
I was able to go through it.
Will i go through it word for word, i'm not sure.
[laughter] i will at least be scanning it.
I recommend writing on a potential bush candidacy in 2016 talking about hope versus expense.
I recommend it to everybody.
Kevin roberts, let me ask you, have you read the secretary's book?
Are millenial's reading books?
None of us are here.
We will have the millenial conversation in a bit.
We have got to go to uber as an event.
In london did you experience the uber experience at?
Everybody at the agency experiences it.
Our average age is 26 years old.
They are fanatics, these people.
Your worldwide travels, can uber leverage worldwide?
10 new york success be done in sa o paulo or christchurch, new zealand?
This is a surefire success.
The ceo talking about how he wants to be thought of not just as a car company but a logistics company.
How do you create an ad campaign for a company like that?
First of all, we have got to get the ceo out of the mix because he is just a logistics -rational guy.
We have to talk to someone who understands the uber consumer, not the uber company.
The way to sell uber is about freedom, the ability to make rapidfire decisions to get on with your life.
Tremendous emotional piece to uber that he is not talking about -- we have got to make some news here.
Are you suggesting as an entrepreneur needs to set aside that she needs to step aside -- -- that he needs to step aside -- he must not step aside.
He needs to bring in someone who can understand the emotion, understand the irrational quotient, because that is the priceless value behind uber.
You have to be from europe to say the rolling r's. if i rolled my r's somebody would punch me.
Me, too, couldn't even do it.
Why does it have the branding as if it is the only company in the market?
It is the smartest approach.
Everybody is going "we are going to uber this." it has become a verb, and now -- not how do you maintained that when you have other entrants in the market?
You have just got to believe in this and just outreach emotionally.
It is a lifestyle.
It is a way of life, absolutely right.
Nothing to do with cars, nothing in to do with logistics.
It is much more than that.
He has got to create not a brand , a movement.
We are going to be part of the uber movement.
Really cool getting your perspective.
To sit here with the ceo of saatchi & saatchi and have you explain to me how we need to build stuff is in the moment.
It brings us to our twitter question of the day.
Tweet us, @bsurveillance.
This is out of massachusetts.
Being taken out by analog devices.
We will have much more on that through the morning.
Talking the markets, a lot of those good headlines coming out on friday with may payrolls pushing past the recession peak.
Will that moment to be able to be sustained?
This is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone.
I am tom keene.
Evan roberts, ceo worldwide of saatchi & saatchi.
The mystery of the millennials man is great -- matters related economy.
Most of them have never known a normal economy.
You and i have millennial children and this is a huge mystery.
What do they do if we get back to normal?
Resilient -- you know that, i know that.
There -- they have come through this, they are interested in co-creation, collaboration.
They are radical optimists.
I'm calm -- i'm calling them generation happy.
They've had to get through so much economic austerity.
They just say, ok, i don't trust any of the people, none of the banks understand me.
These old brands don't get me.
I am going to make it on my own.
What does saatchi & saatchi know about the belief -- will be younger people shifted to being older people?
Does it really happen?
At almost -- adulthood is happening earlier and earlier and early because they've got no choice.
I cannot rely on any of the macros, they all suck.
I will take care of my own happiness and own destiny.
I am connected, i have great social networking.
I am going to go and be a screenwriter.
The theme from the report of 2 weeks ago was apps, apps, apps.
Whatever anybody says about the technological mumbo-jumbo, apps are what matter.
Feels more like 5 years ago.
These are apps where people connect with people, ideas connect with ideas.
They are creative apps, entertainment apps.
They want to get information and knowledge both like this and that they want me -- our erik schatzker is going to have a report on the world cup.
What is the number one message you have about brazil?
Welcome to the world's biggest party.
Sand, sea, samba, ansd soccer.
How willingly th -- how will england do?
We will lose in penalties to someone.
Never really special "-- we have a really special "bloomberg view" for you.
Mervyn king weighing in on the world cup, and right behind that, a comment from jim o'neill, formerly with: sex international.
A double barrel of the -- formerly with goldman sachs international.
A double barrel of the world cup.
Erik schatzker got the junket.
Good morning, everyone.
"bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene.
Adam johnson and alix steel with me.
Scarlet fu is off.
Our guest, kevin roberts, ceo worldwide with the saatchi & saatchi.
johnson has the headlines.
There was a deadly attack at the karachi airport that is left 70 security personnel and employees dead.
Authorities continued to search the airport after 10 gunmen stormed of the terminal late last night.
The caliban -- taliban has claimed responsibility for the attack.
President obama is expected to announce measures to use monthly payments for people with student loans.
He will use executive action to direct the department of education to expand the number of people who can take advantage of a law that will cap payments on federal loans to know more than 10% of monthly income.
Does that mean it just takes longer to pay them back?
I think the whole thing is screwed up.
I have a strong opinion on this and it is a mess.
Is the one thing if you file student bangladesh t -- if you file bankruptcy that stays with you, student loans.
It is why they call in the king of clay -- the standard has 14 grand slam titles.
Those are the top headlines.
Yeah, he won, on clay.
You are supposed to.
He is an animal.
28 years old.
14 grand slams.
Ok, that is impressive.
It was a better than good jobs report.
The better news is the faintest glimmer of rising wages.
You are known for writing sharp, sharp notes on this.
Let me cut to the chase.
If we see rising wages, does that automatically mean rising inflation?
Automatic correlation -- the u.s. economy is a service-based economy.
What else did you learn on friday that prepares you for june and july?
The friday job report was the first clean report without disturbances.
We saw a number between 210 and 220 that gives us an idea what is really the underlying pace of job creation.
We saw the optimist last week, adam johnson, pullback.
He was going from 2.5% back to 2.5%. you wonder where we will be a couple weeks of data.
What is curious to me about that particular call is that we got import data that was actually quite strong.
U.s. imports at a record.
Can you resolve this to nationalize -- the real trade balance of nonpetroleum goods.
So you take out oil.
That is just -- that has just hit the record high.
The deficit is the highest u.s. has ever seen.
It is one important reason the monetary policy stimulus may spur consumer spending but eventually trigger higher imports.
The gdp impact is limited.
I want to translate that to be clear here.
A trade to visit, and the deficit -- trade deficit, and the deficit was bigger and economic numbers come down.
Take out oil and adjust for inflation in prices, substantial goods to us as well.
We are importing a lot which means we are producing less.
Yeah, that is not good.
The deputy assistant secretary of state under reagan and then treasury, deputy assistant treasurer under bush number one has an op-ed in today's "was to journa -- "wall street journal." there it is.
Malpass has been big on this rate increase.
Also, of course, the velocity of when we do see the rate raises, which goes to your wheelhouse.
What do you think?
That is a mystery.
The fed owes us an expiration as to why at the end of 2016 debates should only be a 2%. the puzzle there's the fed itself says that at the end of 2016 we are back at full employment, inflation is at 2% -- but rates are and where they are going to be.
Close to to the natural rate.
How many jobs reports do you need to see where you say that shar -- chair yellen is going to change her mind?
I think the situation is clear.
Average payroll gains of more than 200,000 for almost 3 years.
I don't know what will eventually convince chair yellen or vice chair dudley to be more constructive also to meet the whole approach is about risk management.
The baseline approach is that things are getting better but we want to ensure against downside risk.
Does that mean investors are underpricing a rate increase?
I think so.
The date for the liftoff for somewhere in the middle of next year seems to be right.
Extremely important question with kevin roberts here representing england.
Germany in the world cup, any chance?
When i heard your response, you lose in penalty shoots for some germany would be an obvious candidate.
I think germany goes to the semifinals and loses against brazil.
Jim o'neill, very big on germany.
Faster game in brazil?
Too warm for the germans.
The weather, very good.
I didn't think of that.
You know, that's like the classic abc sports, "and the weather a factor." anchorman adam johnson.
I have no clue on the world cup.
I just found out it was fifa the other day.
We will talk about prism, the analytics company creating a level playing field for retailers and amazon.
This is "bloomberg surveillance good morning, everyone.
"bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene.
With me, adam johnson, alix steel.
Let's get to our company news.
Tyson foods has agreed to buy hillshire rants, outbidding pilgrim's pride, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
License is expected to be $63 or share in cash for hillshire.
Netflix holds annual shareholder meetings today.
Company investors are expected to vote on a proposal by 2 public pension funds to separate the roles of chairman and ceo, both currently held by reed hastings.
Uber is a setting the record valuation $17 billion, up from $3.5 billion last year.
That is today's company news.
We are just ways -- specifically, 3 days, away from the world cup, and soccer fans across the globe are ready for the matches to begin, but is brazil ready for them?
Erik schatzker just got back from brazil.
My question is, we keep reading about stadiums not being ready and it was not being built.
Is it really that bad?
Let's be clear, i'm ready.
But the country for which this jacket stands, brazil to molest there be any doub -- brazil, lest there be any doubt, is not.
The lack of preparedness extends all the way from the stadiums, shockingly -- brazil won the right in 2007 and here we are in 2014 and stadiums aren't ready.
Only 3 are on time.
All the way from the stadiums to any manner of infrastructure, whether it be the roads, the rail systems, the bus lines, the airports, importantly.
Brazil expects 600,000 foreigners.
It really is as bad as they headlines, the editorials, the pictures, etc., would suggest?
We spend numeral 90's in brazil taking a first-hand look at the stadium, infrastructure in san paolo, rio, and we found this is high -- you are a braver soul than i am.
You land on the ground and there is going to be 47,000 people there, whatever the number is.
Is brazil ready for all those people?
Manaus, almost ironically -- i use that word very sparingly -- is ready.
You might not expected to be ready because it is way up north.
It is a jungle boomtown.
You can only get there by traveling 2250 miles -- you are sending mixed messages this morning.
You have an argentinian shirt with the brazil coat -- and the canadian.
Kevin roberts, you predicted that argentina and brazil would play in the final.
The 2 best teams level playing in great he, lots of passion and fervor.
Of course they are behind the national thing, but the mood in brazil is perhaps more somber than ever before because there are so many questions about the amount of money that was spent on the arenas and the related infrastructure.
Instead of the thing that most brazilians want, more health care and education, more buses -- my prediction is this is going to be the best world cup ever.
3 billion people watching around the world, 106 million people watched the super bowl.
You will get seven times that watching the final.
When it all starts, you know what?
It will be like the olympics in athens, salt lake city, all these places.
It is going to be a great world event.
I want alix to get this and, all morning must read.
Dave zirin in "the new york times." i'm interested to see if that is what you saw.
In your 9 days there, what is the summary -- people will go to brazil and watch the world cup and have a good time but if they run into all kinds of delays and spansion protests, possibly violent ones, they may never come back.
That is the concern for brazil, whether the investment generates a meaningful return over time.
Are you going to wear this all day?
Look for this -- look seriously for the packages by erik schatzker.
Really brief data check here.
Let's look at where the futures are.
Nominally down on the s&p. 10-year at 262. the euro flattish.
Too expensive for me.
Good morning, everyone.
"bloomberg surveillance," from our headquarters in new york.
It has been a soap opera for months.
Tyson foods, juno from dark chicken -- which you have from dr.
Tin and white chicken, they have a binding offer for hillshire,. the bridge facility is mezzanine financing.
Within the back-and-forth, we are finally to a deal here.
You are looking into this as well.
There will at a marginally to cash earnings in the first -- yeah, marginally.
Jeff mccracken and out team will have much more on the nuances.
This is a soap opera.
Pinnacle, hillshire, tyson -- pilgrims.
Jimmy dean is part of hillshire.
Amazon tracks your every click, what brick-and-mortar retail is pretty much can't. when you shop in macy's you are invisible until you swipe your credit card.
Prism skylab is giving retailers a way to analyze surveillance footage to see how customers actually shop.
The senior vice president at risen lap -- at prism lab -- does that mean that big mother is watching my every move the second i entered the store?
No, we're looking at the trends, but we don't look at individuals.
We look at what you do in that space as a group.
All we keep hearing is about how brick-and-mortar is dead and everyone is losing a miser amazon and no one is going to shop in stores anymore.
Why would someone need the surveillance to keep that going?
The retail side has to have the chance against the online as well.
Everyone is online right now.
Retail is where you get the differential.
You are able to go in and get some experience and meet the brand face-to-face.
You don't do that in the semi online.
Retailers need ways to measure what they do in that space somewhat effective.
You have cameras -- remember, tom, when i went to houston to interview the company that makes the cameras that boston police use?
Do you put cameras in stores that follow how people go so you see where the patterns are and use the data like that?
We can go with existing cameras in store and use what is actually in the store right now.
In a way you are tracking the movements of the space.
We can get you that the shrieking that deepens the technology but you are looking at the patterns of -- we can get deep into the technology but you are looking at the patterns in the store -- it sounds great but a sign of desperation.
Amazon is having a profound effect and this is desperation here.
Is this analogy part of that desperation -- is this technology part of that desperation?
No, i don't think so.
I worked with nike and we are talking the end of the '90s and if a customer came in and had a great experience in the retail space, they will still buy your brand.
It does not matter to you too much of they buy from that store or buy online, buy from foot locker.
It is about me and sure that the customer is loving -- making sure that the customer is loving your brand.
What is the success metric you use?
In terms of?
How does that translate into sales?
Well, there are several ways.
One, you have visual access as a retailer.
One of the great things people get from us is online visual access to their stores.
They can do things like on it -- audits and all the things they can do with products to make sure that the stores were to deliver that experience.
They can measure the displays by how many times people go out to them.
If you -- if you look online with amazon they know how may times a person clicks on the part but they don't know why the person doesn't buy the product at the end of the day.
They can see if you are touching the product and adjust the price of the display based on that information.
You are sticking with us through the rest of the hour.
Breaking news from camera to -- cambridge.
Merck will be buying identix.
We could get a hat trick of pharmaceuticals in massachusetts.
Coming up, uber, is it worth $17 billion?
Good morning, everyone.
"bloomberg surveillance ." on the west coast today, the next big thing summit.
Emily chang, cory johnson, they will be joined by any number of people, including the cofounder of paypal.
Look for it, 1:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m., bloomberg west.
With me, adam johnson and alix steel.
Top headlines -- ukraine plus new president, petro poroshenko, says that the violence that has rocked the easternmost regions must end.
Talks in kiev include the ukrainian ambassador to germany, the russian envoy to ukraine, and the special representative for the organization of security in europe.
The pants economy grew faster than estimated in the first quarter.
Gdp rose -- 6.5%. business investment rose more than reported.
Would in it be interesting if japan ended up supplanting china for the biggest growth in asia?
The miami heat bounced back in the nba finals.
A powerful comeback from the cramps that knocked lebron james out of the opener.
Heat beat the spurs with the 98-96 victory.
Moments ago published at rbc capital markets, "vix in a no way signaling complacency here." he totally goes against consensus of complacency in the market.
A different world, when you think about it.
Central banks supplying capital.
What we considered normal back then is different.
Running us is "in the loop" anchor betty liu.
A lot of action happening.
It is almost -- it is almost the 1-year anniversary since edward snowden came out and disclosed information about what the nsa does.
We have michael mukasey joining us, the former attorney general who has spoken out and been very forceful, saying that the nsa is needed and that the surveillance, less buying, so to speak, is needed to protect america.
Greatly appreciate it.
"in the loop with betty liu." don't forget erik schatzker and is coverage from brazil.
Look for those packages through the week.
Kevin roberts with saatchi & saatchi.
Very quickly here, the world cup -- it is all about tv, isn't it?
This is going to be the biggest tv event of the decade, the century.
3 billion viewers.
784 million -- maybe a billion -- who wins, adidas or nike?
Adidas is an official sponsor and nike will be doing renegade marketing.
The consumer will win.
Kevin roberts of sasha and saatchi, and world cup, how did i sound?
Just like him.
Good morning from new york city and our world headquarters.
Coming up on "market makers," erik schatzker wearing a brazilian soccer jersey.
ripp and norman pearlstine trying to figure out how to move forward with the magazine business.
That is at 10:00 a.m. i am tom keene.
I am trying to learn as much as i can about the world cup.
Adam johnson helping me with that.
Alix steel as well.
You must be desperate.
I am helping?
Kevin robertss as well, ceo worldwide for saatchi & saatchi.
News of the morning --uber has said a valuation record from 3.5 billion dollars last year.
The start of raise $1.2 billion in new financing, that by fidelity investments will stop amazon will reportedly start managing prescription -- a subscription payments.
It would allow active users to use the card details stored on amazon.com to pay for services like phone bills or online music downloads.
Amazon would charge a fee on each transaction.
The company has been trying to break into paypal's online payment services arena.
Elon musk just announced a special right-hand drive version in the u.k. it comes 2 years after the cause went on sale in the u.s. he spoke in london about his hopes on the new market.
The uk's likely to be one of our most significant markets.
So far, it is a very strong -- it is very strong in the u.k. if you order a car now, you receive it in the 4 months.
We are putting a lot into supercharge infrastructure and we want it covered by the end of this year and all the missiles by the -- all the british isles by the end of next year.
We will be spending several tens of millions of dollars over the next year on that.
That is today's company news.
Retail, profound impact on amazon worldwide.
Maybe jcpenney is in that group.
With the mixture of branding and merchandising, there is no substitute for traffic for the door.
Apple stores are mobbed.
Microsoft -- what would you call it, adam, a kerfuffle?
Kevin roberts is with us with saatchi & saatchi worldwide as we consider the importance of retail.
Kevin, the new retail is to me -- what do i get wrong with the statement?
It has 3 steps to it -- search, shop, and that you share.
You were talking about the millennials.
57% of millennials love to shop and they are still going to the malls of america.
They are what we are calling, in a way, faux consumers.
They are clicking away.
60% of you and me, we click and buy.
Millennials, less than half of them.
Where will we be in a 5 years with a retail as compared to the jargon on amazon -- juggernaut amazon?
Retail will still be there but the brands will try to increase the experience in the retail spaces.
That is the important thing, to get that experience right.
It is about value for your time when you going to these shops.
The ceo of walmart last week and said something very smart, that price is terribly important and something you value, but now you value time equally.
For walmart to be thinking like that, a sea change.
Is that providing the most efficient experience possible?