U.K. Recovery Gaining Traction: Shaw

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Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) –- Investec Securities Chief Economist Philip Shaw discusses growth in the U.K. and how the data points to a continuation of recovery with Mark Barton and Anna Edwards on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

The u.s. shutdown and the debt that they would've made it into the u.k. psyche or not at all?

Class i doubt it.

I think this is a purely domestic figure.

We think in very broad terms and show the continuation of the recovery.

If you look at the surveys of all sectors, they have been extremely buoyant over the third quarter.

If you look at the dynamics of the official numbers, i do not think we will quite get there.

It is not impossible.

Morris to click -- realistically, we are looking at gdp growth, not quite as good as one percent, but if anyone said you at the beginning of the year, would you like plus .8%, we would've said no.

What is more important is the growth rates are sustainable.

I suspect once the q4 figures come through, they will be relatively close.

By half by 2014, hopefully.

I fell has mark carney and colleagues viewing .8%? does that change anything or tweaking some of their forecasts?

Class they will be tweaking some forecast.

The bank of england is not looking at growth being that strong over the next years.

The forecast will change.

We have been doubtful rates will be kept as low as they are until the -- and the second half of 2016 -- it is possible if the growth pattern continues, the forecast will apply unemployment quickly -- quicker, and the bank that will be guiding markets and households and businesses towards a rate increase in the second half.

That happen next month?

The inflation report?

Class i think it is too soon.

What you need is more evidence those sorts of growth patens will be sustained before we see a more dramatic change in the forecast and therefore the guided.

Others say the pace at which the unemployment number will come down from 7.7, the key level people are watching in relation, that will be glacial.

Mark thought the pace that number will come down will really flow.

You think it could be a little quicker than glacial?

I suspect it will be.

Firms have got excess workers, even though we have got a recovery.

What firms can do is instead of hiring more people, they could produce more output as volatility bounces back.

It is possible.

What i suspect will be the case is growth prospects will look better, which will encourage more firms to hire workers.

I think their capacity will remain.

I do not think we have a problem, but i see the jobless rate following somewhat quickly.

Class of only that were the case in europe.

Pmi data will show improvement within the eurozone.

Quest that is what we think.

The euro zone economies are out of recession.

What human need for a reduction in joblessness is much stronger growth, not just on its own, but with in those particular peripheries that have got 25% less unemployment.

Thank you.

Joining us from investment securities.

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