The Need for Syria Response: Surveillance (8/26)

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August 26 (Bloomberg) -- Full episode of "Bloomberg Surveillance." Guests: Bloomberg Contributor Nick Thompson, Fred Tecce, partner at Panitch Schwarzer Belisario & Nadel, Nassim Taleb, professor of risk engineering at NYU, John Durant, author of “The Paleo Manifesto”, J.P. Eggers, professor at NYU Stearn, and Mark Moerdler, analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. (Source: Bloomberg)

After reports of chemical weapons, the united nations wants unfettered access to syria.

President obama considers the limited military response price that "billions of dollars." microsoft considers a steven ballmer-free world.

The price of patent wars, the pension frenzy limiting progress for companies like apple and samsung?

Did morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" and i am tom keene.

Joining me, back from the wilds of wyoming, sara eisen and alix steel is in for scarlet fu.

How was your trip back?

It was a long trip back.

What a beautiful trip.

Where is your cowboy hat?

I only wear it when i am out west.

A lot of interesting discussion on emerging markets.

We will talk about it, but first, the morning briefing.

Trading highlights from overseas markets, the chinese stock market shot up the most in two weeks for rebounding across the region, british markets are closed for a bank holiday.

In the u.s., a few key data points, durable goods.

The monthly report set to fall for the first time since march.

Also watch over the 10:30 a.m. dallas manufacturing index.

Very little for earnings.

Before the bell, we have tribune.

It will be interesting to talk about as we continue to look at the industry changing, tv, newspapers splitting apart.

The journal has done this successfully.


And how much they might pay for it?

The chicago cubs free tribune.

They used to own the chicago cubs.

They don't anymore.

Baseball talk.

Let's do a data check.

Equities, bonds, currencies and commodities.

I will be blood.

Massive summer feeling, negative two on the futures, 10-year yield goes nowhere, euro that goes nowhere.

Hydrocarbons are elevated.

That is american, west texas intermediate.

I thought i would show the equity divergence.

The theme at jackson hole of emerging markets.

There we are.


the indian stock market is down 21% so far this year.

The zurich stop burkett, switzerland, up 16% for the year.

-- his erect stock market, switzerland, up 16% for the year.

Up 16% for switzerland and -20% for india, showing you some of the trauma out there.

And the rupee -- i knew you would get to that.

Let me look at this.

. if it is not a-rod, it has to be the ruby.

Serious concerns, and about -- no doubt.

Most important stories, we kick off monday with a big deal announcement.

With amgen buying onyx pharmaceuticals at $10.4 billion transaction.

It gives amgen access to rapidly expand certain -- expands.

Ranking among fiber biggest takeovers.

It did spur more than $3 billion in revenue by 2021. i was scaring some research reports for more depth on this and isi says his get -- his guess is amgen will open 4% higher.

Building up to double digits by 2018. what i love about these mergers, $10 billion?

741 employees.

That is like a small business.

That is great.

What does this price mean for biotech violations in general?

Are we seeing a ship?

Isi doesn't think so.

Talking about india's rupee, decline among biggest emerging market economies.

The risks of phentermine bond buying is hurting economies from india to turkey.

This was the dominant theme in jackson hole last week.

The federal reserve signaling a pullback in stimulus.

The question is, where's the money going?

Blackrock said in the first seven months, north america got over $102 billion -- it is going to the developed world.

Some of the central bank policymakers and economists were saying this crisis is sparing no one.

First it was the united states at the center of lehman where the money poured out of here.

Then it was europe and european debt crisis, now the emerging markets.

Investors yanking the money.

Rolling it out from india where all of that liquidity from the fed policy in the past few years was pouring into, now it is coming out.

I would suggest from here that listing the guard got the major play, her speech in your interview was sort of the front and center moment for jackson hole.

Definitely a highlight.

Christine lagarde he urged coronation.

If you look at it, her members are countries from around the world, from the imf intruding money.

Right now concerns about the emerging markets world.

She said the imf is there to step in if it is needed.

Nobody is talking about any sort of currency crisis or capital flow crisis, but it is something we're watching.

I thought this was interesting.

This is the emerging market of puerto rico.

You heard that for the first time on "surveillance" of black warning us about that.

We're seeing a different response all across the emerging market world.

The third story for today is serious.

The obama administration stepping up plans for possible military action.

Syria plus offered to yet -- to let you in officials inspect for chemical weapons is just too late.

Lots of responses across the board.

Britain says they're convinced syrian president al-assad was behind the attack.

You take a look in turkey, the foreign minister they're saying his country will join the coalition against syria.

Any of the other side, you have russia sort of strong-arming and saying think twice before their -- you inflame anything in the middle east.

Tehran also saying they are oil be severe consequences as well.

Let's bring someone in who knows the region.

Formally with the central intelligence agency, now covers energy and oil markets and their geopolitics for the british firm.

Good morning.

Good morning.

I did see oil advance, but i was adjust this is such a large issue it is removed from the oil market.

Is that true?

You think about serial, talking about the broader middle east stability, oil is trading at a five-month high based on the possible u.s. military action in syria.

But we look at oil, really we don't have any immediate threats to oil right now.

All syria experts are basically off the market anyway.

The real question is, will we see broader unrest in the middle east?

Will syria plus problems be contained in syria or spread?

We have had a host of problems in iraq it has of cereal.

-- because of cereal.

How do you suggest they will respond to any action by the president and the united states?

This is interesting because if you look at egypt, the u.s. and the saudi's are not necessarily on the same page.

When you look at syria, yemen situation where the saudi's have been one of the biggest financial backers of -- you have a situation where the saudi's have one of the biggest financial backers.

I do think it intervention will be broadly welcomed by the saudi's, because they're very focused on bringing down the al- assad regime.

What is the state of infrastructure pipelines for transports in syria right now?

We don't have the full picture of what it looks like in syria.

In terms of the energy side, because of international sanctions, we do not have syrian crude making it to the market.

We don't have a full picture of what it looks like entirely in syria at the moment.

Thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.

Our guest host, with ring to bring you nicholas thompson -- we are thrilled to bring you nicholas thompson.

His article this week in on steve ballmer really was all over the internet, without exaggeration.

Also with us, a partner at the philadelphia law firm.

Congratulations on your ballmer note, nick.

First on cereal, you're out front thinking about the ramifications of this july essay in "the new yorker." what is different now from the first or second week of july?

There is much more of a moral case for intervention.

Chemical weapons have been used.

The tragedies are increasing.

There is more than into national legal poll for there to be intervention.

However, what is not changed, the odds of a successful outcome for the yes -- for the united states where we know exactly what will happen what we can do.

The arguments against intervention are extremely strong.

With your observation and reporting over the weekend, would you suggest the allies are on board with the president or is it once again for the president is having a conversation with himself?

I think the allies have been on board.

The french have been aggressive.

The united nations security council which involves russia will certainly not go for it as russia is very much with assad, but the western allies seemed to be thinking along similar lines.

We saw headlines about an hour ago with william hague and his support and concern over syria, waiting to hear him defend his statements from the french.

Let's get the company news.

The fallout from goldman's computer glitch hits employees.

Four technology experts have been placed on leave according to the financial times.

It caused them to send a faulty stock-option orders to exchanges.

The malfunction will cost the firm tens of millions of dollars.

The new york attorney general goes after donald trump.

The state ag is suing the online education institute for fraud.

The state says the institute operated without a license and misled students paying as much as $35,000 for real estate expertise.

The attorney general claims students were swindled out of $40 million by donald trump.

General motors is back in the super bowl.

The automaker saying it will advertise in the nfl's title game this february will stop they did not buy ads in the super bowl last year.

The former marketing chief says it wasn't worth the almost $4 million for the 30 second cbs was charging.

Speaking of the super bowl, if you're thinking about getting tickets to next february's super bowl, bundle up.

According to the farmer's almanac, a winter storm will be hitting the time the super bowl is played at metlife stadium here in new jersey.

This is the first outdoor super bowl ever and the cold weather environment.

The weather forecast made five months in advance has to be taken with a grain of salt, but everyone was worried about this.

Do people still believe in the farmer's almanac?

Farmers do, nfl should.

I will go with it.

Apparently was only a couple of days off in last winter storm.

It is not like we're going to be there.

We will be watching it on tv.

Coming up, a lot of talk about what is next for microsoft.

Steve ballmer's retirement setting the stage for new leader in the company reboot.

It is our twitter question of the day -- tweet us.

This is "bloomberg surveillance." ? this is "bloomberg surveillance." alix steel is in for scarlet fu.

I am sara eisen along with tom keene.

After friday's big announcement that steve ballmer would be written -- retiring them a everybody is wondering who will take his place.

Sam grobart breaks down the company's recent failures, leaving us with a new question -- will anyone even want the job?

Steve ballmer!


Let's get on your feet1 yeah!

Whoever the new ceo of microsoft is, they won't have to ask a lot of questions about what needs fixing.

The answers are pretty crystal freaking clear.

Number one, smartphones.

It is kind of growing, sort of.

In the u.s., sales remain incredibly sluggish.

The problem isn't the software.

That is pretty great.

Nor is the hardware.

The problem is that app dopers are treating it like a stepchild -- developers are treating it like a stepchild.

Number two, tablets.

Pop quiz.

When was last time you saw someone using a microsoft surface tablet?

Me neither.

Borrowing a page from apple's playbook, service was supposed to be this perfect marriage of hardware and software, except in it came in two different versions and one couldn't run your windows applications, but the other one was really expensive and really power hungry and really heavy.

In the meantime, sales of tablets from apple and samsung have been going like hot cakes.


Number three, windows.


Even windows.

That fortress of auditability is under siege after releasing windows 8 last year, sales have been slow.

Many people freaked out at the new crazy interface and decided to stick with portraitist of versions like windows 7. in the meantime, and this must be really fun for microsoft, pc sales are sinking like the ss poseidon.


People are clearly using smart phones and tablets a whole lot more.

All microsoft has to do is build smart phones and tablets and -- what a second.

Good luck, future ceo.


The always animated sam grobart.

We should mention this is not a company that is in financial trouble by any means.

That is what we forget.

Half it last quarter was a must $5 billion and that be some of the new tech names like google.

Revenue was $80 billion in 2012, $20 billion when ballmer took over.

It is not necessarily they're not making money, but about keeping the money they have.

And keeping shareholders happy.

Nick thompson is with us.

He has the essay of the weekend.

You get to it.

Embrace complexity and product design just as everyone turned to simplicity.

Look at grow bart talking about the surface tablet.

Many -- no one can explain how it works.

There's a lot of complexity in microsoft products, even now -- the point was, every technological trend, microsoft when any other direction.

It did so because it wanted to protect its rockets and legacy businesses.

It is like clay christiansen 100 one.

But bill gates was the one who said, we're going to focus on pcs.

There was a board also making decisions.

I think ballmer gets a lot of heat for decisions made companywide.

But he is the ceo.

Gates is trying to solve malaria problems in africa.

Pointing out the activist investor perhaps proxy, we may be headed into.

I was reading a note really saying value act owns less than one percent of the company but could be responsible in a lot of these shifts we may be seeing, perhaps this management shakeup was part of microsoft it hearing to value adds.

What do you think about that?

It is a plausible theory.

We don't really know what is pushing ballmer.

It is a bit surprising he said he had a 12 month runway, so it doesn't seem like there is urgent action taken against him, but i think you could see the situation where there's been a company that is been stagnant for a while, they hire an outsider that is going to turn things upside down.

So it is more to her point of it is very difficult for shareholders to appreciate microsoft -- just in summary, it is still a financial behemoth.

Read nick thompson's essay.

It is great.

. he will be with us for the hour.

We will talk about new media, old media newspaper industry as well.

Tribune earnings are out later today.

The question is, are newspapers a bad investment?

Thekoch brother say they're not buying the tribune.

Dodgers owner mark walter is exploring possible purchase of the l.a. times.

We will get you the latest on this industry coming up on "bloomberg surveillance." ? this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am sara eisen with tom keene and alix steel.

Syria's president assad has denied his forces launched a chemical attack on its own citizens last week.

He was quoted in a russian newspaper saying the accusations of the gas attack were "insult to common sense." he warned u.s. against any military intervention in syria.

More than 3000 firefighters are working to contain a massive wildfire in northern california.

The fire has burned more than 100 44 thousand acres and spread into yosemite national park.

The blaze also threatening to put cisco's main water supply.

-- san francisco's main water supply.

At the box office, "the butler" was number one for the second week in and broke -- in a row.

Second place went into "we're the millers." those are your top news headlines.

Anyone see those?

I heard "the butler" is great.

What's she has no life.

Alix steel, on a monday, has no life.

Monday morning must read.

Tom, we will go to you with the doorbell laureate writing about microsoft.


krugman says he doesn't know anything about technology companies, the dsm nice observations.

Barbarians are invited in by domestic faction seeking a shakeup.

That from paul krugman on the decline of the empire's. nick thompson with us for "the new yorker." do they need someone outside and really someone up to seven different?

That would be helpful.

Someone who could see microsoft's problem clearly, people inside don't see.

You want to go outside outside.

I would go -- my guess on who it will be, i think bill gates -- or someone inside like julie larson green.

But i would like an outsider.

Very good.

Coming up, we'll talk about another company, tribune earnings out.

? this is bloomberg surveillance monday morning.

Sara eisen here with tom keene.

We need a monday morning data check.

Emerging markets that we are watching, but even there it is a churn today.

Futures negative two.

Tenure yield at 282. crude goes nowhere.

Crude elevated earlier.

Brent was up reaching to 111. brent crude at 11087 -- 110.87 we hear headlines every single day about patent wars heating up between apple and samsung.

Other tech giants as well.

Is it a good thing?

Does it hurt?

It costs these companies billions and slows down innovation and the economy.

It prevents us from kidding cool new stuff on her dashboards and in our pockets.

Nick tom seven -- nick thompson.

There was a decision, but you need a scorecard.

There are over 50 different lawsuits.

It is unbelievable what goes on.

They pop up like gophers in that game and move onto the next one.

Last week the international trade week which is an organization that can ban imports based on whether or not they him french people's patents.

That is subject to review by the president and i am much or that will stand, but it keeps going on.

The president has an interesting role here.

It blocked another decision in favor of apple.

I always say it all depends on -- apple when they turned in their patent said their patent should stand and no one should be able to practice this technology.

But when they are getting sued by motorola they say everyone should have access to the stuff.

I guess it depends on what side of the fence you are.

If i wanted to be a smart alec i could say the good news is that patents keep patent lawyers employed.

Our patent system has been the greatest one in the world fostering and encouraging innovation for decades if not centuries.

I have watched it got it over the last couple of years because people are trying to take away the rights of inventors.

That is where wanted to go.

Some of from kentucky said this is economic terrorism.

Why did change and when did he change?

For years and years a lot of major companies disregarded or ignored people's patent rights and they marginalized them.

These people have gotten together, lawyers have gone out and bought patents and sued companies looking to get some small sliver of the profits.

Now that these companies are on the other side they are yelling and screaming and looking to put an end to this.

They get a bad rap in terms of technology, but look at patents in terms of pharmaceuticals or biotechnology.

You need to protect your idea or your drug.

Is that is because it is more tangible?

You do, but people are yelling about trolls who are nonpracticing entities.

For a lot of innovation in our country there are two sides to every story.

The trick to being a good trial or is understanding -- the trick to being a good trial lower -- trial lawyer is understanding.

The role of government is really to stay out of it.

There are patent troll bills.

They are out there.

You have to be careful.

That cuts through a wide swath.

The federal trade commission -- if you want to do -- we want to deal with the international trade commission, you are done.

I have to tell you, the system had its own series of self checks and balances.

The whole idea was to bring uniformity to it in the mid-80s. if left alone, there are rules in the books.

You can get your attorneys fees if you lose.

Those rules, you start seeing those rules more enforced and more aggressively enforced, that will solve the problem in 10 minutes.

Someone like me who does not care about this story, i think it is ludicrous that someone had a quote patent on the curve of a phone." had a "patent on the curve of a phone." if i take a check and for the curve on it it is the nike swoosh.

We need someone who understands this.

Who has the most valuable portfolio in the tech world?

It was steve jobs 's goal to have a huge tech portfolio and these companies need them.

When i was a lonely -- when i was a young lawyer, ibm used to get all patents and hold onto them.

Does microsoft have a lot of patents?

They do.

They have a lot of patents and they have been aggressive with them and motorola has been aggressive with theirs.

With the music of intel?

Was a difference between a patent and copyright?

Copyright -- trademarks are little things like the nike swoosh or we do it all for you or things like that.

What is next?

What is next is that these people are going to continue to battle.

The patent wars are going to make a fortune.

Consumers become a -- don't even become a pawn in the game.

They get pushed under the bus.

I'm upset about charlie manuel getting the can.

Nick thompson, obviously it is going to be a continuing story for the tech names.

Speaking of music, nobody watch choose -- nobody watches music videos anymore but mtv still puts on an awards show to honor them.

I watched it.

Lex you did?

Big winners taking home three awards for video of the year , timberlake made the rumors come through.

He reunited with his old boy band and sink for the show.

-- with his old boy band, nsync for the show.

The song was titled best song ever.

Did you watch the can?

Just like tom.

Coming up for the next hour, the guest host will be the author of the black swan and fragile.

Of course the trading glitch with the nasdaq and much more ahead with nassim taleb and bloomberg radio on your television your tablet and

? first, bloomberg.

Bloomberg surveillance, sara eisen here with tom keene.

Boesch rely wrapped up the prosecutors, who called for his severe punishment.

He was up for bribery, embezzlement and abuse of power.

He denied all charges throughout the five-day trial.

Allegations of serious military launching a chemical attack last week.

The attack killed more than 1300. assad has denied using chemical weapons.

Muriel siebert, pioneering woman on wall street passed away.

She died from complications of cancer.

In 1967 she became the first to buy stock on the market.

She was a force in midtown.

You would see her at the economic club of new york.

Fragile, but always vibrantly to the and.

That is what she was known for, overcoming.

She was the billie jean king of the business.

I can't emphasize enough how upfront she was in 1967. she was eight years, 10 years ahead of anybody else.

She was way out front.

She was wonderful.

Muriel siebert.

Here is alix steel.

It really has to do with emerging markets.

Basically scaring retail investors out of those emerging markets.

Morgan stanley, the data from epf are, basically shows the weekly net flows into emerging bond funds.

You can see what it has done there in 2011 -- 2013 i should say we are in negative territory.

It was the longest outflow streak since the second half of 2008. emerging asia the least favored region.

Morgan stanley saying that is going to continue.

Joining us this week if it continues, manus cranny is with us from our london studios.

You can see him earlier in the morning with francine lacqua.

Emerging markets.

What does the city say?

I don't know about that.

They were really quite bullish on the story.

As you look at that chart, it is almost one per nike first floated the idea of tapering you just see that beginning to drop off.

The differences are asia, the least favorite.

The chinese have got 31% of the foreign reserves out there.

This is a moment in time when you look at these, who is the strongest emerging market?

I was talking to christine lagarde and jackson hole about this and i asked her about the emerging markets.

She said hold on, be careful to distinguish between some of these countries and emerging markets.

India was described as a real problem because of their economic and political issues.

And the emerging markets complain when the fed started pumping money into the system.

There is a way of doing it properly.

With all due respect, the fed says this is your problem not our problem.

This is a global issue.

That is what christine lagarde said to sarah.

Apparently everybody is watching this.

It is the speed and how orderly or disorderly -- i want to know what the linkages between the emerging markets.

We will do more on this with manus cranny in our next hour.

He will be with us all week until at least the royal baby cookies wear out.

Hang out here -- hang out here because maybe you can help us understand the first picture that we will see in "first look." let's start a northern california.

It continues to have a massive fire.

I will take you to london a little later.

Uncontrollable fire near yosemite national park.

Governor jerry brown has declared a state of emergency in the san francisco area.

Part of the problem is beatles which can eat into the trees and make them have more holes and make them more like kindling.

They burn faster than normal.

144,000 acres.

Here is the one that we need you for, manus.

London , people are taking to the streets for the annual notting hill carnival.

Or than one million people joining in the festivities.

Europe's biggest street festival.

There is a whole posting.

It is a crazy weekend.

What is the symbolism there?

Is it back to the romans?

As long as it is bright and vibrant.

It is crammed into notting hill where the movie "notting hill" was filmed.

I haven't personally done it for about 20 years.

You do it a couple of times and then you give it up.

I'm glad you gave us that movie reference with julia roberts.

Manus likes to treat the dumb americans -- i want to show you the snapshot because of the celebratory mood rate here, tens of thousands descended on the nation's capital to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the march on washington.

Look at that rally.

The dispenser leaders came together to reflect.

I think the sundays did a particularly good job.

Showing their interview with martin luther king.

Coming up on "bloomberg surveillance am co-dodgers owner exploring a possible purchase of the "los angeles times." mergers heating up in the publishing interests -- heating up in the publishing industry.

I'm sara here as always with tom keene and sarah -- and alix steel.

No vote takes a page from apple's playbook.

They're expanding their locations in china.

There are plans for more in china.

They're looking to overtake samsung and smartphone sales.

The unit is armed with 4 billion in cash and just hired a former goldman executive to oversee deals in the current tree.

-- in the country operating profits within the next six years.

American mobile is backing take np's move to sell its german telecom business.

After telephone because sweden the the bid.

That is today's company news from the files of bloomberg west.

Another interesting company to talk about is the tribune company.

Reported earnings today signaling that it will be the tribune news company and then the more profitable tribune tv company in the future.

We have seen this movie before.

The question center on some big names as potential buyers for the newspaper.

The koch brothers say they are not interested anymore . there can only be so many dominant newspapers.

What of the tribune of chicago and the times of los angeles?

Nick, let me start with you.

My basic idea is there can only be so many winners within the digital age.

Few winners tomahawk and have few if you have the wall street journal, "the new york times," the -- e it can be the big winner in the chicago market.

If you believe in the tribune you believe in the power of local news.

This is critical, right?

I believe somewhat in the power of local news.

I believe that the value of the tribune will drop even further.

I still get the paper delivered in paper format and for no other reason that i can read local news.

I can't get local news from what i watch on tv.

So nature abhors a vacuum.

They said they are out of it, but they don't want to do local news.

They would want for the political and social power of newspapers.

That's why there are still buyers for newspapers.

The studio give you access.

Someone will buy the l.a. times, the newspaper part of it, for more money.

Talk about the history of newspaper companies going out and buying television stations.

How that model works for so long, so well and suddenly it has fallen apart.

Is falling apart because of the newspaper part of the business.

The internet part of the tribune company all where people see a lot of the value, newspapers are where this economic behemoth has started to decline.

News corp.

Spinoff has done pretty well.

That certainly has to boast well for the tribune.

What is evaluation metric we need to use when looking at these newspapers?

If you're looking at who is going to buy it, it is political influence.

What is it $70 million for "the boston globe." when you look at the newspaper you look at their declining earnings you have to look at their pension obligations and all the bills they have outstanding.

It becomes the ancillary thing that the company has.

The name has tremendous value.

It has goodwill associated with the trade when you buy this it is not just the advertisers, we're talking about high profile names not just any old newspapers.

I am old enough to remember my grandfather reading chapter and verse the macarthur midwest republican angle of the chicago tribune from another time.

Those days are over.

People are watching the three network news is, they are watching npr, they're out on the internet heard what is it lyrical prestige value of newspapers other than holding dinner parties in your hometown?


They still endorse candidates and have a lot of say in elections.

They do have influence in a lot of ways.

I read "the l.a. times" for the entertainment.

To do a first-class job of what goes on in hollywood and l.a. sports.

If they were to develop and get regional enterprise reporting you can become a national read.

There are ways to get value out of the l.a. times.

We are talking about some of the most high-profile newspapers.

The latest to enter is the guggenheim ceo who might buy the l.a. times.

Could we see more people who are not veterans of the industry turnaround is newspapers in viable financial fashion?

I think you could see someone buying it.

I can see how someone in hollywood might have a real interest in buying "the los angeles times." it may not have worked in the past.

It is an interesting monday.

It is an august monday, but -- red sox had a pretty good weekend.

I love watching baseball.

Vin scully will have another year at the dodgers at 86 years old.

Cincinnati and the pirates.

I got an e-mail.

You only talk about the american league.

Cincinnati, pirates, cardinals, altogether.

Watching the dollar/yen.

I'm also watching the euro/yen.

Remember, the governor corona was in jackson hold over the weekend saying his policies are working in the weaker japanese yen.

And of course everyone is watching the indian rupee, the indonesian rupiah, this is the pain in emerging markets.

Coming up in the next hour n,assim tale b. n --assim taleb -- nassim taleb.

? . ? after reports of united nations deaths, a united nations wants unprecedented access to syria.

President obama is talking about a military response price that billions.

Our guest host this hour has a different take.

The process of selecting a new chief officer, should they regroup their fragile corporate culture?

Good morning, everyone.

This is "bloomberg surveillance ." joining me as always, sara eisen, alix steel is in fort scarlet fu.

You know him as the author of "the black swan," our guest house, -- guest host, nassim taleb.

The best day in two weeks, emerging markets started to rebound.

The british markets are closed for a bank holiday.

A durable goods monthly report is set to actually fall for the first time since march.

The fed manufacturing activity index, little wavering, tribune before the top of the bell, that company deals with the future of its newspaper and television business.

Alix steel has some company news for us.

Merger monday, all of $10.5 billion, access to rapidly expanding cancer markets to treat a rare blood cancer.

Fallout from the goldman computer glitch, hitting employees.

Technology specialists have been placed at the firm on leave and the programming error caused them to sell exchanges and the malfunction because the firm tens of millions of dollars.

General motors is back in the super bowl, saying that they will advertise in the title game this february.

They did not buy ads in the last super bowl.

Their chief marketing officer said that it was not worth but cbs was charging.

That is today's company news.

Talking about syria for years, it is now upon us as an issue.

This as the obama administration stepped up plans for possible military actions.

Syria offered to the united nations that they expect -- inspect areas is simply too late.

Good morning, ind.

That will not be the position of the russians, of course, who demanded that the syrians also allowed the un in.

They will come out and say -- look, you let the inspectors in, you have absolutely no rights to have a smaller coalition.

How critical is it for the president to develop a coalition as opposed to acting unilaterally?

Is critical, but it is not a problem.

The united states has been well behind the europeans and several states in the middle east every step of the way, maintaining itself as the case.

The turks have already announced this morning that they are prepared to go in and outside the un as well and you will get very strong for support from a number of staunch opponents of of assad in the region.

Would be the best deterrent?

I do not believe that we are talking about, you know, a poll on intervention.

I think we are talking much more about limited u.s. military engagement.

Certainly things like cruise missiles to try to take out the remaining chemical weapons stocks and military infrastructure, but it is not as if the united states has a plan for what to do in a routine change environment.

They understand that they will not be taking syria with them , they are looking to maintain some credibility in their own international influence, which they lost some of this year.

Hang on, we have nassim taleb here as our guest host for the last hour.

I would be curious about your viewpoint on the latest volatility flareups.

In syria, you mean?

And the broader region.

I have three points to make.

The first one, like the black swan, this is the result of our officials to believe for a long time.

Italy has a lot a volatility.

Unlike syria, which had none.

The u.s. supporting regime eliminated the volatility as a nation.

That is the first thing to say, beware places like saudi arabia, today, which have no political volatility.

You are from lebanon.

You are emotionally from lebanon and have written about this in "black swan." you were way out front about this.

How fragile is the middle east system if syria blows up?

Of lebanon seems to at least be robust.

Everyone talks about all-out civil war in lebanon, but nothing is happening, whereas in syria there is civil war happening.

But let me make a second statement here.


I have been warning about intervention in this book.

The grass is not greener on the other side.

Look at the inconsistency in interventionist policies.

The united states is directly, indirectly, supporting the rebels in syria.

What are the rebels?

The other regime, with their anti-western stance, feels cosmetic.

The rebels are extremely connected to al qaeda.

Here you are attacking al qaeda on one hand, you wind up supporting -- you see the point?

This is why you should always watch out when you are looking at how you can -- not to end up, as we say in trading, trading against yourself.

Let's pick it up on that theme of prevention.

Ian bremmer with us from the eurasia group.

What happens in the preventive intervention?

The u.s. owns a piece of this.

There is reluctant support, which is why there is not a lot of american arms on the ground.

There is not much fallout from a couple of cruise missiles, but you saw the israelis do the same thing.

There may well be blow back and i do not just mean from the syrian government calling for attacks against u.s., the raw onions have already said that this would lead to a direct explosion across the middle east.

Clearly you could see support for terrorist attacks against u.s. embassies and u.s. facilities in the least.

The real question will be -- do the russians do much?

I suspect not.

Russian statements over the last 48 hours have really been that the u.s. will get itself in another iraq.

Russia itself is taking a much more passive voice, although clearly it is their material that is much more advanced and protected by regime.

Nassim taleb, you have written three books about old world verses new world.

As the united states if we apply a new world attitude, can it even possibly succeed?

Most interventionism has led to unintended consequences in the middle east.

Look at egypt.

Supporting that regime, look what it led to.

What is your prescription for the president?

Minimum leave intervention.

Let things take care of themselves?


Not necessarily, just do not meddle with things unless you have total chaos, ec member of because he will wind up doing for -- you see?

Because you will wind up doing something that will create the next problem.

Intervention leads to unintended consequences and more problems.

It is wonderful to have you here today.

Great attention on syria.

We will come back with nassim taleb.

Ian bremmer, thank you so much for coming to us from nantucket this morning.

Let's get a g0 dated check, one board, it should be apple board, there is a little going on.

Currencies go nowhere.

You did not move the market in west texas.

Over the weekend.

The market closed on friday evening and certainly there was a lot of talk from central bankers the bill did to in a moment.

Also coming up on "bloomberg surveillance," the new caveman normal.

Seriously, getting back to your caveman routes may be good for you and big business, coming up.

? ? good morning, everyone.

It is time for "this matter is now." his book, anti-fragile, was my book of the winter last year, and i highly recommend it for any of you interested in risk and uncertainty.

How about this, skin in the game?

Let's bring this up right now, it is real simple, every captain goes down with every ship.

That is the sole commitment that you can have.

We need skin in the game, do we not?

It is a very simple concept in the gene pool.

We talk about the bank, the market.

You say that it even comes down to this decision of who should be the next fed chairman?

My point is about larry summers.

When i hear larry summers, people talk about how smart he is.

We cannot judge how smart people are.

Our history can, whether he made a mistake or not to the accelerate the repeal of the glass-steagall act.

It could be a mistake and if it is a mistake, he should pay the price.

All of these mistakes are on paper in reality.

In the harry reid world, when a restaurant owner makes a mistake, -- in the real world, when a restaurant owner makes a mistake, they go back.

Having to make washington more accountable?

You cannot, because they do not have a build in the skin in the game system and they have a very small number of people in a position of power, like we have with greenspan.

You want a system with a lot of people making a lot of smaller mistakes.

When i drove from the studio, it was in the car.


Because there with skin in the game.

And you only had something like 30,000 traffic accident fatalities.

The idea was that those who were not good are judged by history, by actual evolution rather than the newspaper and stuff like that.

Let's continue.

Nassim taleb is with us for the entire hour.

His book is "anti-fragile." is happening in spades, we will continue our discussion on the emerging markets.

This is "bloomberg surveillance ." all of our interviews are on, bloomberg tv plus on the ipad.

? ? good morning, everyone.

Who should be the next microsoft ceo?

I have selected nassim taleb.

This is "bloomberg surveillance." our guest host for the hour is nassim taleb, a best seller of "the black swan," and out with a new book, "anti-fragile." assad was quoted in a russian newspaper last week saying that the accusation of a gas attack was in salt to common sense and he warned the u.s. against any military intervention in syria.

More than 3000 firefighters are working to contain a massive wildfire in northern california.

The blaze also threatening the main water supply in san francisco.

At the box office?

The butler took the no.

1 spot the second weekend in a route.

The second place went to "we are the miller's." getting rave reviews.

All right, who leads the cutting edge?

Apple has not had a new product in nearly two years.

Our next guest says we have not had good innovation in 2000 years.


Up elio?

In sex?

How about john, the author of the "paleo manifesto"? he joins us now.

It is not just eating raw meat, is it?

We were hunters and gatherers.

Meat, vegetables, seafood.

2000 years is where you're looking to for in it -- innovation?

10,000 years.

What is the number one thing that we do wrong in our modern world?

Diet is the biggest example.

The base of the usda grain.

It -- food pyramid is grain products, which humans did not eat in sizable product -- sizable quantities until 10,000 years ago.

You would flippant on its year?

I would put vegetables, roots, and tubers on the bottom.

Nassim taleb look into this.

As it was explained, there was something fundamental in these statements about what people ate and that what mattered was variability.

The pale person had a lot more aggressors -- paleo person have a lot more taleb aggressors, hunger, and periods of stressors.

To read this way, you must be subjected to fasting.

People snack all day, they say to do that to keep your blood sugar up, but if you do not get any food most people today would become like head, hands shaky, would not be able to perform more functions.

What can we learn from asian cuisine?

This mystique that they live longer and better?

I started eating a lot of seaweed, which is incredibly nutritious.

Do you like seaweed?

I love it.

I have tried.

With salt.

You are eating tons of fish, and they do need a fair amount of pork.

Let's talk about the physical.

In your book you talk about lifting one way?

It is much easier.

I live in the modern world with stuff like that, so i had to compromise somewhere.

The idea is if you really want to be paleo, it is more in accordance with history.

So long as you are metabolic we calibrated, shoot for being stronger, it is much easier to maintain.

Every doctor says now they should not have too much red meat.

Cholesterol, heart disease, cancer.

Statistically medicine has always been behind the curve, but there is something they're actually that is quite central where you realize that thing people do not live longer than people with a little more body weight.

He just says that because he is bigger.

How cruel, cold showers?

Are you kidding me?

We need more variability.

Swimming in cold water, a polar bear swims, cold showers in the morning break you up real fast.

No alcohol?

We have to make compromises with some things.


Let's turn to sara eisen, who has been doing the paleo festival.

You cut back on the boxing.

I did.

It is intense.

A lot of people get on the treadmill and elliptical without intensity in their exercise.

I do not think the cave man had a hot pink boxing gloves, though.

What is the number one thing that drives you nuts about the modern world?

There is no variability.

Everything is -- services are flat.

We eat the same two foods all the time.

Temperatures are the same.

Everything is the same.

We need that variation to thrive.

A really thoughtful book, "paleo manifesto." anyone ever tell you that you look like russell brand?

I get jesus.

All right.

Nasdaq went dead for hours on thursday.

Could the hold having good for our system?

We have the take from nassim taleb, coming up next.

? ? this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am sara eisen, alix steel is in for scarlet fu.

We're looking at amgen, buying pharmaceuticals for $10.5 billion.

It gives them access to a cancer market and a big drug that can treat aim repair blood cancer.

Investors are expressing doubt about the staples turnaround plan, they are having their worst month in the credit derivatives market in more than one year.

Widening 32 basis points this month alone, full-year earnings falling short of estimates by 7 cents per share.

The new york attorney general does after donald trump, taking down the online education institute for fraud, saying that that operated without a license and misled students.

The attorney general claims that students were swindled.

That is today's company news.

You want to know the hottest topic of conversation this weekend?

Then when the world's central bankers and economists got together to talk about the economy?

Emerging markets and the carnage we have started to see in different countries bonds and stock markets, even brazil.

Here is the managing director of the imf.

Emerging markets are not one single region, they are not one single group of countries.

We are seeing a great differentiation between those countries that have strong fundamentals, good economic policies and reforms, and those that are, you know, much more elegant, which have been much more lose some reforms.

It is a very strong signal about external factors smattering for each and every economy mean years as well towards stability.

The federal reserve is shining a light on those fundamentals by starting to talk about tapering and scaling back from the stimulus.

Money has been flowing out of these emerging-market.

We have seen them began to plunge year.

Developed market equities as well, money flowing out into the u.s., even europe.

It will be a major theme for the markets, particularly into september.

Turkey, really uncontrollable outflows.

Usually in london, visiting as this week in new york, he joins us.

Talk to us about the blended index of u.s. trading partners.

There is an asian equivalent, is there not?

There is.

The jpmorgan asian index, cutting reserves and firepower to defend themselves, that is where this comes in, between the bound up more than asian banks and the indians and indonesian's. you are seeing more pressure here on those corrections, more pressure on india, more on the indonesian.

How come everyone in europe is always on holiday?

Just the french in the it -- the french and the italians.

I do not know about ireland.

I said to him -- who will be the last man standing in this?

He said -- look at the numbers.

The rial, coming up with $60 billion in swaps.

They will get worse?

They are actually going to drain their reserves and they have got the firepower.

What he said to me was -- look, we are possibly pass the worst.

Nassim taleb is with us on emerging markets.

I think you have some have seen this before?

In your first book you talked about the certitude of people working within a complex system not always working out.

At the time of the emerging market traders lost it all.

I have to read this again.

One of our new associate producers just finished a week ago.

The question is, carmen reinhart was on "bloomberg surveillance" and was talking about the fault banking currency crisis and the odds going up as we continue to see the damage.

That is what she intimated.

Thank you so much.

A quick data check, quiet on monday, the euro, flat, at elevated 106, 63 on west texas.

This is bloomberg surveillance -- "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg television.

In sara eisen, here as always with tom keene and sara eisen -- i am sara eisen, here as always with tom keene.

The nasdaq, thursday, it was decidedly fragile, as we sought as the system shutdown.

The machinery of the exchange and all of eisen -- i its complexity simply broke.

Nassim taleb has spent a career in finance thinking about systems.

He said it was a glitch and we asked -- are the glitches good?

You want glitches.

There is a company, netflix, that i did not know about them when i wrote this, they manufacture glitches.

The system gets stronger from small mistakes.

You cannot live in a world driven by bureaucrats who think we need to be perfect.

You have to turn randomness.

That is the only way we can handle the complexity, by making the error is part of the system.

Make no mistake, the system will blow up one day.

They brought this up on yahoo financenassim this weekend in a terrific s.a. -- should the sec stepped in?

Was it so fragile that the sec as police officer had to step in to tell them what to do?

This i do not know, but let me put this in the perspective of something much more general about complex systems.

When i was a traitor, you make every small pick, 500 decisions today.

You learn to live with them.

When we switched to electronic trading, you had no mistakes except the big one.

The big one was small once in a while, with small mistakes being extremely good and you learn from them.

The flash cash on the nasdaq?

That got better?

If you see the flash crash figures, there are a variety of mistakes, more and more, deeper and deeper.

Look at netflix and the way that they do it.

They understand how to make a system robust two errors by manufacturing them all the time.

What do you mean by that?

They inject errors into the system to see how the system handles that.

After a while the system gets stronger.

What is your recommendation on the nasdaq?

The flash crash, that confidence, people that do not read it as fragile?

The problem is they have to realize that it is not just the nasdaq, it is the entire system, they have to realize that one day it is not the system and its physical properties, but that one day you have something that lasts much longer and would be devastating for the system, freezing transactions for several days.

You have to make an allowance for that, plan b period you have to look for -- instead of -- plan b. you have to look for something with smaller glitches that the system can cope with.

A feel for improvements.

Broadly speaking, the rise in high-frequency trading, is that beneficial to the markets?

It is most beneficial to those who are not in it.

I think that face-to-face trading has taken advantage of that in the last few years.

I am sorry, i think your work on this is a profound and i wonder when the lesson that the margin that you have are going to come over to the systems.

Let me tell you what i discovered, something very strange.

I wrote a version in parallel with literary.

I have put them under one fiat.

People, when they read the map, understand it better than when they read the book.

We will have much more, looking at microsoft, next.

? ? good morning, everyone.

"bloomberg surveillance." scarlet fu is off on a much- needed sojourn and journey.

With us now, betty liu, the most interesting interview of the day, an article one year ago in vanity fair that everyone read and talked about and now it is happening.

Very in-depth reporting, as usual, by mike icahn mild, who will be joining us later.

The offer of three best-selling novels, works of nonfiction, i should say, he wrote a scathing piece on the microsoft, laying the blame of the failure for microsoft at the feet of steve palmer.

I have not found anyone who has had anything nice to say about balmer's ten-year.

I think there was a period where he made a lot of money in their dominant core products.

They still are, it is just a point of looking at the negatives.

They are still making money, but it is a point of looking at their failures as well.

Betty liu, thank you.

Really, a must read.

Time for mourning movers.

It is a quiet market, what do we have?

Those are the big rumors of the day on this merger monday, pharmaceuticals $125 per share, a $10.5 billion.

I s five predicted that they would open 4%, beating that estimate, in the broader trend here, buying small numbers of already marketed, laced experimental drugs, really trying to expand their offerings here.

The question is, what does this mean for biotech valuations in general?

The price before was $130 per share, but that broke down.

Is this a trend that we will see in biotech companies?

Some say that this is a steel, geared towards long-term growth rates helping them along.

The basic reporting that i saw was that there would be more after this.

Right, because they need to diversify into other small or late stage drugs.

There are buying small deals, right?

This is the third biggest in pharmaceuticals.

But it could have been more if they had nailed down, the question is, did they get access to the big data they were hoping for or did they lower valuation?

Ok, morning movers, very good.

We are also watching for microsoft on the move.

We have heard a lot of names about who the next innovator in chief should be at microsoft.

Sheryl sandberg?

Tim armstrong?

I would look for a name that i do not know.

What do you think?

Who should be the next ceo at microsoft?

This is "bloomberg surveillance ," we will be discussing that coming up on bloomberg television.

Streaming on your tablet, phone, and

? ? good morning, everyone.

June, july, august in the bond market, the bedrock chief investment strategist joining us tomorrow on "-- on "bloomberg surveillance." particularly on the role of etf all over the market.

Alix steel is in today for scarlet fu, and our guest host today is nassim taleb, author of the new book, "anti-fragile." we have more stories from the files of "to bloomberg west." leno, taking a page from the apple playbook -- lenovo, taking a page from the apple playbook, trying to overtake samsung in smartphone sales.

Japan, looking to ramp up offerings on mobile tablet services, they just hired a former goldman executives to oversee the deals.

Japan is targeting a 70% jump in operating profits.

Carlos slim and his american mobile is backing the german telecom business, sweden has saved $11.4 million with a 30% stake in cape p.m.. on the back of the oil deal in texaco, changes in the oil market, it seems like a new mexico in 2014. a new capitalism in mexico.

We will have to see where that winds up.

First they need to on regulate.

Microsoft certainly need the new ceo.

There is a dividing line between the first generation of computer and the next era still taking shape.

Long and running the gamut, some of the celebrities mentioned, the yahoo ceo, marissa meyer, tim armstrong, there are plenty of names that we have probably not heard of it.

We have some experts on the subject.

J., from the stern school of management, and we have analyst mark miller of sanford bernstein to talk about this.

To your wheel house, what is the most important character trait that this new ceo has to bring to microsoft?

They are going to have a really difficult time, they have two challenges they are facing.

One, keeping the existing core business profitable and milking it for what it is worth, but at the same time tearing down in real envisioning.

It is a big challenge to do both and it will require a unique skill set.

Celebrities, they do not need a celebrity, do they?

I do not think that they do at all.

It is much more about the right vision to completely re imagine what microsoft might do.

Do you have any names?

I do not.

I think there are a lot possibilities out there, but i think they need someone who can deliver on division the company started with, making massive transitions in business, moving the enterprise to the cloud, requiring someone with experience in the cloud, technology, innovation, maintaining and changing in some anyways.

That is a huge to do list.

What about breaking up the company?

I find that highly unlikely.

While the version of the last couple of years has been to reintegrate, the windows phone division in the x-box operating system have been moved into one group.

Will that buyout?

I do not think so.

I think the board is behind this.

I am lost.

This company developed $70 billion in revenue and dropped the rest of the operating income line.

What really n

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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