The stockmarket booms, the economy recovers, will 2014 be a year of continued optimism?
Washington confronts to or is it three americas, the inequality divide widens.
He rips a page from the beyonce playbook.
It is "bloomberg surveillance." it is 2014. in new zealand, there is the sky tower.
New zealand is to start us off.
Then we go over to australia.
Their tallest tower.
He can withstand a 7 on the richter scale.
, just a celebration of 2014. -- no earthquakes, just a celebration of 2014. it is new year's eve somewhere.
Where is my champagne?
What are you doing tonight?
Partying, what else?
It is a secret location.
I'm going to push it offers long as i can because i'm played to the west coast.
But you will be celebrating on the airplane new york time.
You get to celebrate it.
We have a lot to talk about.
We see the festivities over sydney.
These fireworks will last for five big minutes.
Are we just going to rip up the script and watch fireworks?
There are some serious economic data to get us going.
We're kicking it off.
Overnight, singapore gdp rose 6.7% according to the prime minister in a statement.
Here in the u.s., 9:00 a.m., home price index, an exciting one.
9:45, chicago manager.
10:00, consumer product index.
The tone is better.
But it will be a shortened trading day, at least for the bond market.
That closes at 2:00 p.m. today.
Equity markets a full day had, although, i'm sure the volume will be light.
I want to get to my chart of the year.
What a year it has been.
The 10 year yield migrating higher recently.
What does that mean for your real estate in 2014? we have the best guy on the block for that here in a couple of minutes.
Euro-dollar confounding the consensus, 1.3767. nymex crude under 100. you know it is slow today.
Sterling, what a surprise, governor carney gets all the apple laid -- accolade.
It was under 1200 when i walked in the door this morning.
Chart of the punch bowl, amazing the accommodative year we have had.
Way above the yellow line, going back 20 years.
That is a bloomberg financial emissions index.
Famous index about how good things are.
You, ben bernanke, in advance, thank you janet yellen.
Thank you, mario draghi.
Yes, it is remarkable how simple that chart of the year will helpful stuff everything we do including champagne is based on -- and gold buying, now that it is cheap.
She clearly lives the high life.
I could not afford her.
Here is a front page with scarlet fu.
Warren buffett expanding his bet on oil transportation.
Berkshire hathaway will swap shares of philip 66 for full ownership of that company's pipeline services business.
Equivalent to about 19 million shares of philip 66. the u.s. drilling boom has expanded crude oil and natural gas production.
We know prompting pipeline operators to boost capacity.
This goes hand-in-hand with his investment in railways as well.
This occurred yesterday, i believe, a car derailed and hidden oil transport train.
This is what he is getting out in front of.
The oil boom.
How do you move the stuff around?
This is an extension of his drive to be exposed to commodities without taking the risk of actually being exposed to the commodity itself.
I want to rip up the script with all of your wonderful reporting on mergers and acquisitions.
Do you expect more transactions next year?
From the private equity guys, especially, they are looking for an increase in rates to kind of grades and dislocation in the markets and create some buying opportunities.
At least that is what they're saying.
They have been so inactive for most of this year that they're saying, ok, next year we are getting ready to put pencils to paper.
Clocks our second front-page story, vladimir putin tight security following to bob attacks -- two bomb attacks.
The sochi on the vix just six weeks away.
More than 30 people have died.
No groups have claimed responsibility but we know there's plenty of tension between the russian government, muslim socialist -- separatist groups.
The concern is terrorists will perhaps target softer targets.
Politicians and the u.s. are speaking out.
We had michael graham saying we cannot sweep these threats under the rug like we did with benghazi or the warnings from russia on the guys from behind the boston marathon bombing.
It will become a political football of sorts if something does indeed happen.
Sochi is on the black sea and it is on the georgia border.
It can be isolated.
Our final front-page story, a bit of a look back.
We have to take stock of what happened in 2013 in the markets.
We need to start with japanese stocks.
Its biggest yearly gain in four decades, up 57%, the largest increase since the 1972. when you look at what analysts and investors are saying, they're predicting more gains in 2014. more of this bullish sentiment driving prices higher.
A year ago, "were all going to die, life is terrible." the spanish index is up 23% this year in u.s. dollars.
The s&p 500 had 44. u.s. stock market has been on fire as well.
You mentioned gold.
On the downside, about to close out its first annual lost since 2000, down 29% in u.s. dollar terms.
The biggest slump in three decades.
Always some humility going on.
I know "the wall street journal" trumping up the quiet.
And those are the front-page stories.
Here on january 30 -- december 31, 2013 -- you're getting ahead of yourself.
We wanted something -- someone is and about something you care about.
He is from the lawyers samuel.
Everybody hangs on what he believes is going on in miami, new york to san francisco and around the nation.
This is on real estate.
It is wonderful to have you here.
What is your single bullet headline for housing for 2014? a little less drama.
We had a tremendous swing in activities with the spike in rates, initial surge in sales.
I think we will see a leveling off of activity.
Pretty good news, but not spectacular.
We will talk about housing.
It is about foreign money coming in.
What does foreign money coming in buying fancy properties due down the food chain?
Is it truly a trickle-down housing market?
Not really, as far as housing goes.
It creates jobs, tax revenue, but it doesn't have anything really to do with the balance of the market.
This is really about tom not being able to buy his downtown apartment in a couple of years, right?
The russians and brazilians.
Today occupy these apartments?
If they don't, what does that do for the value of the homes around them?
We are building the world's most expensive bank safety boxes.
That is what miami is.
High-end housing here in new york as well.
People are not living in these.
They're buying them for their two-year-olds.
One week a year, right?
There is early concern -- look, every menace a polity is facing revenue shortfalls and people are looking for creative ways.
London has tried this with escalating stamp duty.
It has had mixed results.
I suspect it will probably be moving toward this era of a little more taxation on the upper end.
Can people get a mortgage?
I know of people by in foreign, it is suitcases of cash, right?
Is that a stereotype?
I believe it is a little extreme.
The real estate market, we have roughly 42% of transactions in the u.s. are cash purchases right now.
Are you kidding?
That is an exclusive.
42%? that is driven partly by investors.
Blackstone going into the market buying up single-family homes, driving up the cash force.
It really should be 10%, 20%, so we're still at high levels of cash because credit remains very tight.
Millions of people are getting mortgages, but it is the super prime, grade aaa candidates for my credit score requirements are higher.
That influences what housing is doing.
A conversation on your housing with jonathan miller.
We are have -- we are happy to have him in here on new year's eve.
Let's start with bp.
It was a court to block payments tied to the oil and leslie can be laid directly to the disaster.
The company says a new orleans judge has ignored a decision to type a misdirected to the spill.
It is asking the appeals court to jump in.
Hurts breaking with -- hertz adopting a poison pill after what it calls unusual activity in a stop.
They said the shareholder rights program was not a response to any specific takeover bid or proposal.
The ceo of barclays as it may take a decade to rebuild trust in the bank.
Anthony jake and saying the company will need to see change at the bank before to begin to rebuild following the libor scandal.
That is today's company news.
Let's do a deer's the twitter question -- let's do a new year's eve twitter question.
What are you looking forward to in 2014? maybe a repeat of the boston red sox world series.
I'm looking forward to new tv shows or the return of tv shows.
"scandal" will return early next year.
And "down to intown abbey." my resolution for me, fewer vacation days.
You only take, like, 2. and the amount that dustin bieber's first movie made.
His new movie barely made a dent.
If you missed any of our interviews, you can now watch them on apple tv.
? good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." cristina alesci has darkened the door of times square.
She has -- i don't know what she has.
I call it nowhere near times square this evening.
I'm a new yorker.
I've never been there.
Let's talk about a record year we've had.
For stocks and hollywood.
Domestic box office receipts are closing out 2013 with the new record.
Thanks to a year and sprint of big releases.
One movie that came out on christmas day, "believe" which is just a believer's second movie.
You probably did not know it came out.
This is a little bit of a flop.
There was not a big marketing blitz to go along with it, which was a bit unusual.
The distributors of this documentary have taken pains to release been their strategy.
They say this is a theatrical version of beyonce's stealth album drop.
It opened on fewer screens.
The open road films, the streeter, told the wall street journal is a new business model.
How is it even close to what the unstated given the fact they did spend money on marketing -- $4.5 million -- in a distributed over a traditional medium just as any movie would be released.
They did not spend as much money marketing the film as perhaps they would have.
The results leave a lot to be desired.
Even though it was made for about $5 million, it was said to bring in about $4.5 million in the first five days.
If you compare it to how his first movie did, it doesn't even come here -- compare.
In 2011, justin bieber had a squeaky clean image.
He was not photographed urinating into buckets commits reading he is retiring -- into buckets, tweaking he is retiring.
We need to go to an expert on this.
He has four boys, jonathan miller.
Justin bieber isn't in your house, i hope.
I wasn't warned we were going to spin the whole hour.
I'm not a belieber.
I am fascinated with the fiance marketing.
There is this sort of creative stuff coming out at the end of the year to push sales.
Tells about the new distribution.
In your world, is it still the same thing?
Has anything changed in the real estate business?
What has changed is the prices are getting higher.
We need a beyonce of real estate.
Of real estate?
Yes, to rake rules and sell houses like she sells albums.
Justin bieber has 50 million followers on twitter.
That makes tom so envious.
You have no idea.
His distributors were counting on marketing directly to his fans and going straight to them and bypassing the traditional ways of talking to the fans and getting them to go out to the movie theater.
That is not really happening because the movie is not doing so well.
Plus the fans have grown up a little bit.
In talking to different movie insiders or people who watch box office receipts, they say the film really made a couple of the steps.
It was not leveraging the 50 million twitter -- jonathan, you have a pretty impressive following on twitter.
It is just a little less than justin bieber's. seriously, who is his audience?
It is a lot of preteen girls.
Is an international or u.s.? a lot of international.
He is a very talented singer.
I don't really listen to him.
why do girls like him?
Coming up, it has been a big year for jpmorgan.
We are going to take another look at a big story affecting jpmorgan this year will stop their hiring practices coming up in our morning must read right here on "bloomberg surveillance." ? midmorning, "bloomberg surveillance." -- good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." we start with china.
Its ipo market is reopening.
Five companies plan to sell shares.
It had been frozen for more than a year or regulators were to clean up fraud and misconduct in the offering process.
50 companies should be ready to sell shares by the end of january.
American population growing at the slowest rate since the great depression.
The population grew to 7/10 of one percent.
This is according to the census bureau, the senses -- the slow since 1937. texas all the biggest gain while maine and west virginia subpopulation decreases.
Tim tebow signing on with espn.
You will be a college football analyst on the new network.
He says he still has not given up on playing quarterback in the nfl after being cut from the new york jets and the patriots earlier.
Those are your top headlines.
Look at where he was a year ago or two years ago.
Two years ago.
A big change.
Doing his thing.
What is that called, genuflecting?
He was doing the religious stuff?
It was called the tivoi -- tebowing.
Here is scarlet to get us going on a story for 2014. jpmorgan has been under a lot of pressure in 2013. one of the reasons was because it was falling behind and winning deals in china.
They had to catch up with rivals.
They aggressively hired children of chinese elite.
According to a columnist -- they had spreadsheets detailing and connecting dots between people they hired and deals that could be won or did get won.
Yet they are hiring more complaints people and adding to that department at record pace.
One of the great essays is michael spence who wrote zaki about what matt levine is talking about.
It is essentially damned if you do, damned if you don't. if they just let it alone and never said anything about it -- you might wonder what would've happened.
It might be goldman sachs.
Jonathan miller with us.
This is a game change in american housing this year, the chinese finally show up.
They were late to the party.
We're looking at a lot of will the chinese tried to pull their money out, diversify, invest -- it is a global phenomenon, not just in china.
Looking for a safe haven, which is ironic.
A lot of the global credit crunch could essentially be imitated from the u.s. but the concern about higher tax exposure we saw in france the 75% tax on the wealthy.
We're seeing high-end investors coming to the u.s. jonathan miller of miller samuel.
Talking about the real estate market coming up.
55 tax breaks set to expire today.
We will discuss, next on "surveillance." ? midmorning, "bloomberg surveillance." it is duffy square.
Named after warrior and minister frank duffy.
It is still gorgeous.
Tonight it will be jammed with the ball dropping.
New year's eve as we get ready today.
The fences there.
Put up by new york city's finest.
The twitter question of the day -- a lot of different ways to answer that question.
We say good morning.
I am tom keene here with scarlet fu and cristina alesci.
So 2011. washington.
They're always a couple of years behind.
Is it too strange to say i am looking for to washington doing something?
You're really optimistic.
I don't remember congress doing something since i'm a i don't know, lincoln.
55 tax breaks are set to expire, raising everything from airline travel to my daily train commute today tuition checks.
These are just the tip of the iceberg.
There are a lot of tax breaks set to expire.
You have the individual issues.
You have the commuter tax breaks.
$240 right now, that will drop to about $130 as of tonight.
Charles schumer said this could affect over 700 thousand new yorkers.
A huge deal from the individual side of things.
It is a massive thing for businesses as well.
The research and development tax credit, something intel, personal myers, companies like that, rely on.
About $7 billion a year.
That expires tonight.
You have tax credits for hiring veterans, energy-efficient tax breaks are gone as well.
You have private mortgage insurance write-offs that is gone.
Those commuter benefits.
That is something that will have an impact i think we'll stop all of that gone tonight.
When congress is actually going to come back to this issue?
That is anybody's guess.
Are their lobbyists kind of fight this before they actually expire?
This is pretty much an annual thing for them, unfortunately, with these extenders.
The bucket of 55. the expectation is there going to be extended.
There must always go beyond the december 31 deadline and then do it retroactively.
The issue they are looking at, this has been looked at through the prism of, are they going to do broad tax reform?
Chairman who have said, we don't want it extend them right now because we don't want to include them in tax reform.
No one knows if -- but broad tax reform is a dead issue, right persons senator max baucus is no longer leading the committee?
Yes and no.
I think the hard part is you're not going to get the house republican chairman of ways and means to give up on tax reform.
This is his last year as chair.
He wants an opportunity to do it, even if it is with ron wyden . that puts another delay on it.
The big issue right now, how do you pay for this?
About $54.2 billion annually have to be paid for.
There's not a lot of money that congress can find to cover that amount.
Greatly appreciate that.
Have a great new year.
We go to someone i know will have a miserable new year.
He is with the atomic research group.
His job is to gain the house, the senate, and the president.
Thrilled to have you.
I believe next year is an election year.
How miserable will it be for the senate?
I think the senate is in play.
Good morning and happy new year, tom.
The magic number in the senate is 6. i think the republicans have an excellent chance of getting three or four seats.
Five or six is not out of the question.
You seek the senate employee, that will be the focus next year.
The article show this is a president that has to regroup.
What should we look for in the first 30, 31 days of 2014 on the presidents to do list?
What does he need to do when he comes back from hawaii?
You needs to knock the ball out of the park on january 28 for the state of the union address.
It will be a laundry list of proposals that will probably go nowhere like minimum wage, lots of things the democrats feel they have an advantage on.
The key for this president is, in my opinion, not obamacare.
That was the key in the year that is about to end.
I think the key for this president is whether the economy expands.
The chances are growing that the economy could surprise to the outside.
Renaissance group really talking up the gdp.
Greg, you're from new hampshire, which means you're hardwired on hesitant politics.
How presidential will next year be or is that a wait until 2015? i think around here -- i think if we are all here one year from now, we will be talking about people who are in the race.
I think several people by the fall will make it clear they are running.
We are to have a quiet sigh announcement from mike huckabee, but that is just the first the first of many.
I think hillary clinton will run.
Let's stay on that.
Hillary clinton has some huge benefits, has the ability to fund raise like nobody's business, but she also has bill clinton with her as well.
That can be an asset and liability.
What will he be in 2014? a blessing and occurs.
If we all remember in 2008 where he said some very intemperate things that hurt her in south carolina and elsewhere, but he is also a stemwinder and very, very popular within the pop -- within the group.
What i also think is fascinating is the civil war within the republican party is hardly over.
The twin the insurgents -- rand paul -- and the establishment -- karl rove and john mccain -- but that is a fight that will persist, i think, in 2014. what did you get wrong last year?
You're good about being hard on yourself.
As you finish 2013, what is the thing you said that you missed?
Boy, it has been a pretty darn good year for us and we have the former fed vice who had a tremendous year for casting.
I did not think there would be a shutdown in october until like a week or so before it, then, obviously, the handwriting was on the wall.
I sure did not think there was going to be a desolate crisis.
I would add, their stock would be a shutdown this winter and their stock when the big -- and there is not going to be a big debt crisis in the spring.
Can't wait to get you back.
I think this is so interesting, linking what we do every day in economics and finance and business right over two, really, with 14, the valley is starting.
When it comes to planning ahead for the next election, they skip over and move into lame-duck status with the president and looking ahead.
One business story we will be watching next year is a new business opportunity that is arising in colorado.
Marijuana shops can sell pot for recreational use.
Plenty of entrepreneurs are ready to open their doors tomorrow morning.
14 in denver alone have gotten state and local licenses to sell to anyone 21 or older.
Colorado predicts about $580 million a year in sales, will bring in about $67 million in tax revenue.
This is great for states that are facing -- yeah.
Not that it ever occurred to be, but i'm in wyoming and i'm drive south to colorado and i go back over the border into wyoming?
You bring up denver, maybe that is really the reason that housing prices are rising.
If you go out of state, you can get one quarter ounce.
Here is the pot chart.
Jonathan miller joins us.
Denver is one of the booming markets, isn't it?
Is it because the marijuana?
I think you're trying to say the market is high.
It is one of the big success stories and has been away for the last couple of years.
I don't think it has anything to do with it.
Low tax, great to do business, real estate recovers?
One of the big challenges is trade of activity.
Where you saw denver succeed, you have a little stronger middle-market and you have another markets.
You don't have chinese with suitcases of cash or brazilians or europeans.
What does the city offer in terms of business opportunities?
Is there something more to it?
There is a lot.
Along the foothills of the rockies with the military, a lot of tech -- i have relatives that have moved out there, and it is booming.
Boomtown in colorado.
Apparently, you can go on tours to go stealing -- skiing.
You just had schumacher -- we don't know -- it is argued dangerous sport, we don't need to add marijuana.
Wear a helmet.
If you're not wearing a helmet skiing -- that is mandatory, i think.
Coming up on "surveillance," remember the 51st all-time high, what does that mean for 2014? our single best chart puts everything in perspective, all of these record highs we've seen in equities this year coming up next on "surveillance." ? good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene with scarlet fu and cristina alesci.
Private equity firms have returned a record amount of cash to investors this year.
Or than $120 billion has gone back to investors.
That tops last year's record at one hundred $15 billion.
Michael schumacher undergoing a separate operation after sustaining a serious head injury while skiing in the french out.
A skin after the operation showed a slight improvement.
The former formula one racing star suffered contusions to his brain and hemorrhaging in the accident while skiing two days ago.
He remains in critical condition.
Tim tebow signing on with espn as a college football analyst on their new network.
He won two national championships as the quarterback of the university of florida.
He says he is not given up on the nfl.
Those are your top headlines.
Cash back, why are they returning cash to private equity houses?
Their returning cash to investors who have been patiently waiting for many years.
This is a huge feather in their had.
Heels getting done and they're throwing cash back.
No, these deals were done five or six years ago that are being sold either in the public market -- they're basically taking the returns, taking money off the table.
One of our great events of the year, single best chart.
Here is a new year's eve single best chart.
It is from our assignment desk.
It tracks daily 52-week highs and lows in u.s. stocks.
Rk caps of at least half a billion dollars.
Green bars are the new daily 52- week highs, red bars are the lows.
You can see there is a gap between them.
In 2013, daily average of new 52-week highs, 256 companies.
Lows was 24. the daily average of new daily highs is 10 times as great as the new 52-week lows.
We wonder if that margin will continue into 2014. the persistency of performance is a story i like.
I like what the journal said.
Jonathan miller with us from miller samuel.
Was it a boring year in real estate?
Not at all.
It was a very up-and-down year.
A year ago at this time they were worried about the fiscal cliff.
Apparently, the world did not and.
We saw demand fled into the market.
We had the spike in mortgage rates with the fed tapering communication.
We had a surge in activity as a result, short-term burst.
And then, boom.
We are kind of confused now because some of the national metrics are little bit weaker than forecast, so there is this thing, is housing running out of steam?
I contend 2013 was more of an anomaly.
2014 is a little more normal.
That sets us up beautifully.
We want to hear about the parts of the market that are doing better and the other parts that need to catch up.
The outlook for housing in 2014. parts of the country are back to the 2007 precrisis levels.
? this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get you some company news from the files of bloomberg west.
Netflix trying out some new pricing plans.
Testing pricing based on the number people who could use a single account.
It could for some customers to pay more for additional family members.
One offer charges new customers on is $12 a month but provides access on as many as four screens.
Ibm looks to be the lone loser in the down industrial this year with shares down 2.7% on yesterday's trading.
The dow is up 26% in the period.
Sales slump at ibm.
Revenue has dropped for six straight quarters.
China mobile expense it's 4g lineup.
-- expands its 4g lineup.
Racing to grab customers.
That is today's company news.
We have to talk about real estate because it has been seven years since the housing bubble burst and aided the collapse of the broader economy.
Now, home prices in some areas are reaching pre-2007 levels.
Is the housing market different this time around?
It has been a challenge all year.
We got it wrong.
Housing may be different this time, but what is unchanged is done at the miller's reputation for slicing through the broker height.
Scarlett is looking for a two- bedroom.
Wood-burning fireplace, thank you.
Let's talk new york city.
How tight is tight in new york city?
Inventory is at the lowest level it has been since we've been tracking it in 2000 and.
We are building more units and we are going to see a lot of product.
It is targeted at the luxury segment, the top 10%. one bedrooms for 2.8 million dollars.
It is not going to address the other 90% of the market -- i have to rip up the script.
What are the annual taxes on two-putting million dollars?
$100,000. we have to move away.
Maybe you can afford me.
I think that was some charm over there.
There it is.
There is the hook.
Let's get back to the national story here because, look, we have definitely seen some positive data nationally.
One thing looking forward, you mentioned this qualified mortgage restrictions that come onto lenders books.
Will that basically cool down the housing market?
The way a look at 2014 as i think it is going to take six months for lenders to kind of figured out.
They are incentivized to go qm because it shelters their exposure to risk that they want to make sure the consumer is qualified to get that mortgage, and their insulated somewhat from litigation down the road if it defaults.
Will we see the data?
I think we will see a leveling off of sale activity compounded with the fact i think interest rates will rise a little bit.
Here's a chart on the existing homes.
We look at this each and every day.
What is your production for next year?
That is the denver chart.
Let's look at the existing median home chart if we can bring that up.
There it is.
A little bit of recent role you mentioned earlier.
What are we going to see over the next 12 months?
I think we will still see the price growth.
I think sales growth will level off.
But price growth will continue to see but it will probably be, i'm guessing, have the rate as what we saw in 2013 for the simple reason case-shiller 20 existing home sales for you're talking nine percent to 13% depending on the metrics.
But none of the fundamentals like income rising rates, unemployment, and tight credit support that kind of price growth.
Do you see 2005 and 2006 as a once-in-a-lifetime anomaly, or is the framework of you and the pros like you that we will someday return to that effervescence?
I think what is very different from 2005 and 2006 is credit is the polar opposite.
That then, if you had a pulse or could fog a mirror, you can get financing.
Today, lenders essentially are not in the business of lending unless they're kicking and screaming.
It is a very different condition.
I think that is somewhat of a reality check that keeps us from flowing into a bubble.
I have to tell you, when rates spiked at the end of the spring, i was relieved he cause we were really -- because we were -- we were heading in that direction with too much broth.
I think it takes some of the edge off.
When you look at housing, i want to see a sustained period of growth, not a short, quick hit, which i feel 2013 was.
Will we have a few more of those leaving moments in 2014 where rates will spike up and take some of the froth off the market?
I don't see interest rates spiking.
I just see as the economy improves with a slow gradual rise in rates, which reduces affordability and takes the edge off the market.
Rates maybe spike higher, maybe gradually increase, but at the end of the day, it is historically low.
What is really going on?
Why aren't people pulling the trigger?
I think people have been pulling the trigger this year.
That is why we have seen -- but there has been a slowdown recently.
Recently, but i think we had a surplus of activity, an unnatural amount of activity caused by the spike in rates were people rushed in that were on the fence to take advantage of it.
I think now we have exhausted that and we are getting back to where we would have been if we did not have that burst.
I think 2014 is going to be -- we're going to see improvement in housing, but nothing like -- boring.
You are wrong last year, maybe you will be wrong this year.
Jonathan, thank you.
We appreciate your perspective.
We get a ton of mail nationwide when you are on.
Even though it is like new york and miami.
Anticipating -- and i want a great room as well.
Something to watch.
No question, the story of the year, there is your yen.
Sterling, nobody -- this -- nobody guessed this.
To watch for next year, the indonesian rupia, very weak in december.
Coming up, 2014 just hours away.
We break out the bubbly as times greg it's ready for the new year's eve celebration.
? .. will 2014 be a year of continued optimism?
How i high school kid -- a high school kid it becomes -- and it is my intention to figure out the mystery that is champagne.
We are live from our new year's headquarters in new york.
Of i am tom keene.
Scarlet fu, we begged her to come on.
Our guest host this hour, james injure miller.
We want to go live from new york.
His classic is "live from new york." we have a morning briefing with serious economic news.
He have to get to business first.
In singapore, gpu rose three percent this year -- gdp rose three percent this year.
At 9 a.m. we have the schiller homes index.
At 10 a.m., consumer confidence index.
The bond market closed at 2 p.m.. i think it will be subdued.
Since november 15 it has been locked it up.
Let's get to company news.
Worn buffet betting big on oil transportation.
Of four phone ownership of the denis's pipeline -- for full ownership of the company's pipeline business.
That has pipeline operators used in capacity.
Kurtz is bracing for a battle with activist investors.
They adopted a poison pill after unusual activity in the stocks.
The right program was not a response to any specific takeover bid or proposal.
And the ceo of berkeley says it may take a decade to rebuild trust in the bank.
Anthony jenkins says the public will need to be changed at the bank before it can rebuild trusts following the libor scandal.
That is today's company news.
We will turn to the market here on new year's eve.
I have no social life.
I will be watching 14 movies this weekend on netflix.
The new year brings a lot of changes for netflix.
They are trying out a new pricing plan based on the number of people who can use an account.
This could for some customers to pay more for additional offspring.
One offer from have -- from netflix charges new customers $12 -- there's no way i'm playing $12 per month.
They may do this again.
That is what has analysts concerned, people will take the cheaper option.
James injure miller, he is author of a wonderful "live from new york" from a decade ago.
Really interesting book on the juggernauts that is espn.
We could go for three hours with you on the changing media.
Netflix is the creator of all economy.
They just blew it with pricing a year-and-a-half ago.
They have recovered and now again -- why are they screwing around with their pricing?
Because they have some success.
A fantastic director comes out with house of cards and now people are tuning in.
Now they have this content that this constituency.
People -- now they have this constituency.
Are they a forced network?
They meshed themselves into the living room in a way other people haven't. it is an interesting model.
People getting rid of apple tvs just so they can upgrade -- we have seen what netflix is done to the cable companies, taking market share away from them as people cut the cord.
Is that going to happen or should the content creators be just as threatened by the netflix of the world given the fact that they are creating emmy-winning series?
The content creators like the option because this is another place to go to.
It used to be there was a dwindling -- now, -- now, booker that change?
I think people are excited about the fact that netflix is a viable place to take your product and create great shows.
You can see with kevin spacey and "house of cards," people are taking it seriously.
It is doing damage when it comes to movies.
At the end of the year, some of movies will go off-line.
You can now watch blue jasmine and captain phillips on january 20. these are oscar movies before the oscars are held.
It is a mess.
Forget about the fact it costs you $20 for popcorn and diet coke after the ticket prices.
You are at the nexus of inspiration.
People that get things done.
With the success of "house of cards," "game of thrones," or downton abbey, are they confuse going to next year?
There is a multitude of options out there.
There's a cast member on saturday night live, they had a whole body of work on youtube.
You're not coming out of it starting from ground zero.
There are all these places you can upgrade content on.
You are better at this than i am, scarlet.
Last night a six-year-old talked about netflix the way i talk about cbs or nbc.
A fossil like me does not look that a fossil like me looks at it as a bolt on.
Amazon is a small quiet competitor that could gear up to be a big threat.
Soon they could spin it off and become a different kind of -- that is an excellent point.
They are producing their own content.
A house and betas.
-- alpha house and betas.
What will be the response of the networks?
I remember saturday night live being game changing for nbc it ages ago.
How did they respond to the new distribution?
How this nbc, cbs -- how does nbc, cbs, -- nbc had invested in a lot of -- invested a lot of interest in that.
The networks are starting to concentrate into getting content into other places.
You may see the networks doing something for these other distribution channels.
Sports rights are arguably the hottest piece of content around these days.
How long before google jumps in here with a sunday ticket.
There were rumors google was going to fit -- going to bed -- going to bid against directv.
This is one of the greatest wildcards.
It is a game changer.
To translate that for people like me, if the nfl contract comes up, there may be a new player bidding for that?
Espn is going to send $1.9 billion -- going to spend 1.9 billion dollars per season starting next year.
When does that lead into their margin?
I think they are there.
They are making $10 billion in revenue.
Then you start to see those prices go even higher.
Fox sports is gotten into it.
There's not a lot of inventory.
Google has to wait.
What does all that we are talking about mean for the actors, comedians, creative people?
A lot more places to go to.
-- a lot more places to go to.
Media stocks, what a moon shot this year.
You are going to launch your own improv show?
Think of the merchandising partnerships with bowtie companies.
I could leverage the blow type.
Let me do a mint new year's eve data check here.
There is the data.
It is a silent data check.
There's not a whole lot going on.
The bond market is closing early.
The equity market is going straight through until the 4:00 p.m.) close.
Coming up next, one of the top wine experts in the world helping you choose the right champagne for your wallet.
Bucks and our twitter question of the day, what are you looking a decade ago james andrew miller wrote "live from new york." they leave saturday night live, the unknown enter.
As in dell has done it again.
It is the same old story, creative excellence.
It is all about the product.
If they lost -- they lost a lot of cast members last year.
It just keeps on going.
Eyed daughter said to watch cecily strong.
They promoted her.
-- my daughter said to watch cecily strong.
They promote her.
I fell off my chair laughing.
There is only one lauren.
The dna of that show is so much the dna of lauren.
They have a mentoring process there, they have a culture there that just speaks directly to the product.
It is really impressive.
How have they been so successful giving all these distributional outcomes?
The vertically integrate themselves.
They were doing digital shorts to augment part of this show.
It used to be that if you missed saturday night live, people would talk about it.
Now you can see it all the time.
They are all over the place.
Every single platform is pretty impressive.
With the kids today laughing john belushi?
Yes, i think so.
I think they would totally get him.
What is new next year for you when you look at the creative process of saturday night live?
What should we look for in the show?
Next year, seth meyers has been a big part.
He leaves at the end of january.
That is going to be pretty big shoes.
Assess what's that seth was the head writer.
-- seth was the head writer.
Once tonight is the big read with everybody at the table.
It is an amazing thing.
It is a pretty exciting -- who runs that on wednesday night?
The short answer is lauren.
He's not didactic and authoritative.
He just sits back.
He does not have to exude power at all.
Really interesting as we go into a new year and new talent.
This is about billionaires.
How about three point one trillion?
That is the total wealth of all billionaires.
We will do that next.
Somewhere around the world it is new year's eve as we speak.
I'm told sydney australia is next.
That is exciting.
Here is our twitter question of the day as we look for to 2014. what are you looking forward to in 2014 across business, economics, finance, investment?
The boston red sox.
The new york yankees.
Maybe the yankees.
They could be the sleeper.
This is a bloomberg surveillance.
Scarlet fu and cristina alesci, our guest host with perspective on the creative inspiration, james andrew miller is with us today.
Here is one thing chinese investors are looking for.
Securities regulator approving the plan of five companies to sell shares.
The market had been frozen for over a year while regulators worked to clean up fraud.
50 companies should be ready to sell shares by the end of january.
America' late and is growing at the slowest rate since the great depression.
They grew 7/10 of one percent for the months ending in july.
This is according to the census bureau.
I was the lowest rate since 1937. total population just over 316 million.
Michael schumacher going under a second operation overnight after sustaining a hearing -- a serious head injury.
The former formula one racing star separate contusions while skiing two days ago.
He remains in critical condition.
Those are your top headlines.
One story we have all been looking forward to, new year's eve is upon us.
What better way to bring in 2014 them with a glass of bubbly?
How do you know what to buy?
But consult an expert.
-- let's consult an expert.
She is one of four women to hold the highest line title -- highest line title in the world -- highest wine title int he the world.
Thank you for being here.
We all know the better champagnes are the ones where the makers grow their own grapes.
Why take so much for the mowat and those that do not grow their own grapes?
They have some portion of their grapes and have their own figures.
There are a lot that do.
You are talking about grower champagnes.
This arrived about five years ago where everything was always about him and if you had your own vineyard you had more control.
-- more about if you had your own vineyard you had more control.
They sell those groups to big champagne houses.
60% of the market is mowat.
They are able to get great rates -- great to grapes, have large contracts and be able to extend on high quality parameters for those grapes and the regions they get them from.
A lot of the writing i see recently is we buy champagne, we celebrated, we don't care much about the champagne.
If i walked into the store, help me.
One of the biggest mistakes people make is they buy the wrong style.
If you like a dry champagne, you are going to look for brute.
Give me some names.
We were talking about paul roget and winston churchill.
You have champagnes that are on the full bodies, kind of like the marlon brando.
Krug, bollinger peter -- bollinger -- those are full body.
How about sparkling wines from out of the champagne region?
It is probably a good -- it is probably a good -- it is probably a much better value.
You see a lot of increase in french bubbly that is outside of the region.
You can get one for $12 a bottle, which is a great value peanut probably one of the most undervalued bubbly's out there.
This is madonna's favorite champagne.
Can a celebrity make a bottle of campaign -- of champagne the echo -- of champagne?
Jay-z has his own champagne.
A celebrity endorsement has always surrounded champagne, ever since aristocracy.
Let's go to the other end of the spectrum, champagne on a budget.
What is the best sparkling wine?
If all you want to do is spray it around people -- if you are actually going to not drink it -- at least we know what scarlet's new year's eve is going to be like.
You are probably looking at process go -- at prosecco.
It is hugely popular.
They have gone up exponentially over the last couple of years.
You can still get a great bottle for $12 a bottle.
Don worth it?
-- is don.
Don -- dom perignon worth it?
You just heard it, it is not worth it.
A twitter discussion about a 18-year-old phenom taking on the sports establishment is next.
An hour and a half ago, auckland, new zealand am a they get the first look at the big fireworks.
Sydney australia and 31 minutes will greet 2014. we do that across all of bloomberg news globally today.
A bang up year for equity markets in 2013. i am scarlet fu with tom keene and cristina alesci.
Let's get you some company news.
Bp is asking courts to block payments tied to the oil spill unless they can be directly linked to the disaster.
A new orleans judge has ignored a court decision requiring him to review causation in determining which claims to be paid.
Ep wants the appeals court to step in and appeal -- and issue an injunction pay the revlon is leading china -- is leading china.
-- and issue an injunction.
Revlon is leaving china.
And hurts bracing for a battle with activist investors, a rental car company adopting a poison pill after seeing what it calls unusual and substantial activity in stocks.
That is today's company news.
Get ready for some more activist activity next year.
As investors shift away, presumably from lower yields, they are going to go into equity strategies.
We are going to see more and more companies enter the market.
Who was your person of the year?
Good question, who was my mnj -- who was my and then day -- my m&a person of the year, i would say blackstone.
The dow was up 25%, even without the economy going gangbusters.
Legionnaires also did well to themselves, getting a most $500 billion of wealth on paper.
-- billionaires also did well, getting almost $500 billion of wealth on paper.
A lot of billionaires are talking about can central banks continue to push equity markets?
The 300 richest people in the world are up $500 billion from last year.
Most of them believe the economy will grow somewhere between two percent and three percent.
Today as a group make money on one big bet -- do they as a group make money on one big that or do they have a diversified portfolio?
80% of his fortune is in cascade.
Most people are one big idea.
If you look at most billionaires, it is all one big bet on a closed sale asset.
How about some of the losers?
Lost a love money this year?
If you look at some of the commodities, a huge stakeholder in copper lost a lot of money.
Most of the people, it is almost 90% of the billionaires that actually gained this year.
What about fashion?
We have seen how the rich get richer and they bid up the prices of clothing and jacket.
That has created a lot of billionaires in 2013. it -- in 2013. will it continue in 2014? it is hard to say because people working in the fashion industry owner stakes -- own stakes in the larger companies.
It is hard to say there are many of them left.
James andrew miller with us, where is the creative market in billionaires?
If you look at entertainment, you look at espn.
Is beyonce a billionaire?
She is not even close.
Most entertainers make money off of touring and royalties.
To actually become a billionaire, to own stake in something is huge and beyonce is not there yet.
Who is the closest to be a billionaire?
Pen people like larry david.
Are they doing new stuff?
Larry david said he was going to go on welfare.
He could not get a sketch on the air on saturday night live and was thinking about going on welfare and that money his syndication checks was $460 million.
The bitterness is there.
Billionaires here on bloomberg, look for that at bloomberg.com.
A quick data check, not a lot of movement before the final day of trading begins.
The bond market closes at 2 p.m.. the equity market continues at full day, closing at 4 p.m. good morning, everyone.
On bloomberg surveillance on bloomberg television, bloomberg radio, streaming on your tablet.
Bloomberg television is now on apple tv as well pit that is new for us.
I am tom keene.
With me scarlet fu and cristina alesci, who demanded to come on the show.
Only of champagne was involved.
This guy writes interesting books.
James andrew miller, with his iconic work on saturday night live and espn.
It is resolution time and if you resolve to a gay living writing about your favorite baseball team, the new york yankees, and you get a pass for the world series and have 20,000 twitter followers, this next guest beat you to the punch.
He is still in high school.
Chris is in boston where he is breaking news from his twitter account.
Good to see you.
Two years ago you got an iphone and began tweeting anonymously without activation.
Now you) wes -- for a website and attend -- now you write for a website and attend winter meetings.
Was this the plan?
It really wasn't always the plan for me.
I just started keeping track of baseball for my own use.
After it while i gained a substantial audience.
Once i was able to get sources in the game that was able to tommy information before anyone else i was able to turn this into a career.
You are a product of your generation.
You started off by e-mailing and texting a lot with your sources and only recently began to call them and speak with them on the phone.
What is more productive, and actual phone conversation or virtual communication?
And which do you prefer?
Personally i prefer text or e-mail because i am in school most of the time when this is happening and i can't take phone calls during class.
I also like to have a record of the information i am getting.
If i have it right in front of me i am going to be more accurate than if i have to remember it from a phone call.
There are a lot of people before you -- his worst at media bistro out of college -- how do you want to emulate that in his career path?
Will be the next step for you?
Just to continue what i am doing.
I have gained a pretty substantial following.
I have been noticed by people in the league.
I'll just continue to do good work and be a trustworthy source for baseball news.
Hopefully when i am out of school i will be able to write more longform things like profiles and expand my writing portfolio.
For now, still in high school, doing the breaking new stuff and be a trustworthy source is what i aim to do.
And oppressive career so far.
-- an impressive career so far.
What makes twitter so much different as a platform?
You have to make twitter is a conversation between you and your audience.
My articles are news that people are going to read.
Sometimes they respond but not all the time.
If i know i put out a 140 character tweet i know i'm going to get a bunch of responses.
It connects people with different opinions and provides a conversation.
What are you working on right now?
I want to know what you're going to break in the next two or three days.
Baseball slow this week with everyone taken the holidays off.
You never know what is going to happen but i am in -- i am a text away from breaking the news.
Is baseball cool with people your age?
Are you writing for an older audience?
I think baseball is a team that takes a lot of patience and my generation kind of is all about instantaneous -- it kind of difficult with the younger audience.
The are plenty of people who are very passionate about baseball in my age and people of -- people with childhood memories of going to the ballpark.
There is always going to be a nokia's for it.
Into so much.
-- always going to be an audience for it.
Thank you so much.
How bad do they want to hire this kid?
This is the next bill simmons.
They will call him pretty soon.
He goes down to hartford, connecticut, bristol, connecticut -- it is done in a new way.
Doesn't matter if you went to columbia school of journalism or practicing for 25 years, if you have the sources and a great track record of being right, that is good enough.
And he is doing its work -- doing it in between periods.
What are you looking forward to in 2014? tweet us?
-- tweet us.
It is a new year's eve bloomberg surveillance.
I wore a new year's eve bowtie.
How is it different from any other day?
It isn't. i am tom keene with scarlet fu.
Cristina alesci is joining us as well.
We wanted to break in with a special treat on this new year's eve.
We are going to take a look at tom's lack just moments.
-- tom's wackiest moments.
For those on radio, i am the biebs this morning.
Tom doesn't smile very much so it is an interesting comment.
Lots of good health.
A bunch of guys from russia, a couple of 12 years old best 12-year-olds -- where did you get that umbrella?
That is not an official bloomberg umbrella.
Where in the world is carmen san diego?
I know you have been threatening to look what -- to grow a beard.
I can't begin to noted i know danny is looking at me like, it is going strong.
Spring became the summer.
Who would have believed you come long.
That was a solo effort on your part.
That was great.
Thank you neil diamond.
And thank you dunkin' donuts and krispy kreme spit how many donuts did you eat?
's -- krispy kreme.
How many donuts did you eat?
Speaking of which -- i am surprised there were no cell fees and that.
We are waiting for next year to catch up to you -- catch-up.
It is like 85 people every morning.
Try eight people.
Some of them work a four-day work week.
What was your favorite moment to?
Red sox come in from last to first place was magical.
And after the marathon bombing, it was really redemptive.
How about that night at the carlisle?
We do not talk about that.
Who let her in?
Now that we have looked at our favorite moments of tom in 2013, our twitter question of the day is what are you looking forward to in 2014? tweet us at @bsurveillance.
A limo right -- limo ride to does not cost to a fortune.
If you are looking to get home from the celebrations tonight and tomorrow morning, what do you do?
You wait until 4 a.m.. our agenda is coming up on television and radio.
Coming up thursday, 2014. she's back, dons a year -- dawn zier from nutrisystem.
Think radio is not seeing us.
Tom keene, sixpack, 2014. you have to get the two at the bottom.
For those on radio, you got lucky.
We are going to tweet it out, tom's best moments.
Dieting, next year.
Our guest host is james andrew miller.
He has wrote that she is written about -- he has written about espn and saturday night live.
The justice department wants a court-appointed monitor to be able to -- apple argues the monitor has been overstepping his authority or precedent -- authority by pressing for interviews with senior management.
This plan is supported by jpmorgan.
It will compete with two other postals which is selling most of the satellite broadband assets.
And china mobile is selling 13 handsets for its fourth- generation network.
Samsung, sony, and hallway are the companies racing to grasp customers as china mobile pushes into 4g. that is from the files of bloomberg west.
It is my essay of the year, here it is.
David brooks nails it in "the new york times." toward the end of his life -- read this essay three times on the humility and talents necessary to actually get something done.
James andrew miller is with us with his work on creative talent at espn, as and l, and others.
This is like -- espn, s and l, -- espn, snl, and others.
What great back in the day is it did not pander.
They did what they thought was cool and it became cool.
It is a total paradigm shift when you think about it.
David brooks, go read it four times.
It is great, crushing the' -- crushing the puck posse that -- crushing the poposity.
Viewers and lead -- viewers and readers have more dialogue.
I don't think snl looks outward.
I think they understand when they get into trouble about not having a black female star.
It in terms of -- in terms of creative content there in their own biosphere.
2013 was a banner year for tv.
House of cards made its debut on netflix.
Breaking bad wrapped up its five season run.
And scandal rate in its test rating yet.
-- and scandal rate in its test rat