The Impact of Weather on Hiring

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Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) –- Bloomberg’s Joe Brusuelas weather’s influence on non-farm payrolls and previews what investors should watch for next week on Bloomberg Television’s “Bottom Line.” (Source: Bloomberg)

How is hiring impacted by this severe weather?

Another substantial impact.

It will be another two months before it will be a clean look.

It the forecast looks for 150. it may be closer to 100 funny.

You can see that there is quite a bit of distortion over the last couple of months, specifically in goods producing and services.

I would not be surprised due to the extreme weather we did see in february all over the country that we will see lost production.

A lot of people are talking about the weather.

Any structural deficiencies as well?

If you were a policymaker come you are looking at the state and you are right.

Look right past it.

Wait until three months to see what's going on.

I am one of these economists who thinks that we do have a structural problem in the labor markets.

But to continue looking at the unemployment number.

The number of people were who are working part-time and people -- hershel impact and spending -- hpersonal impact and spending.

Civil worker wages -- you were singing stabilization below two percent for the average increasing wages.

If you adjust that for inflation, it's much lower.

Looking at disposable income, well below the 20 year average.

This is why we continue to underperform.

Civilian worker wages were seeing a bit of an uptick.

We picked up there at the end of the year.

You don't want to make too much of a big deal if you see uptick at the end of the year.

If a went back -- if i went back to 1990 and showed you the start, it would be a long way away.

Manufacturing numbers will be up.

Bloomberg consensus forecasts increase of 51.3. is it there?

We got some significant downside risk.

It we had a pretty substantial inventory overhang.

Specifically in the outer sector, which we will talk about a second.

At which point to broader problems in the economy.

Specifically having to do with the private sector and less hours worked.

We will have some sort of weather impact given what we see everywhere else.

Were looking at inventory indicating future production.

The top lend index come you saw a turnover last month.

A bit of an exaggerated number.

You just spoke briefly about all those total vehicle vehicle sales.

The week wage environment is also a factor here.

What is the bloomberg consensus forecast?

We are expecting a 15.4 million pace of sales.

As critical.

At the end of january, we had inventory on the market.

Sustainable set around 65. one of the reasons we had the slowdown in production was not because of the weather.

It has to do with the balance of supply.

We need to see the pace of sales pick up substantially.

My sense here is that the weather will inhibit that.

Eventually the automakers will have to put in some pretty big extensions to clear those inventories out.

I would imagine, day before march, in april, will that number spike up a little?

When people start getting tax returns back.

That's what we are expecting.

You'll get a little more cash on hand.

This is the year many middle-income americans are going to see the tax on their interest reduced.

They may get a little less.

About 30 seconds left.

Non-manufacturing data.

At richmond fed survey, what's a likely to tell us?

It remains flat.

Retail is taking it on the chin.

Hiring will probably stay at the level.

A look at the week ahead.

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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