Stocks Up 4th Day in Row: Lunch Money (07/09)

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July 9 (Bloomberg) -- On today's "Lunch Money," super-charge the day, and devour all that's driving the markets: stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, options. (Source: Bloomberg)

That's going to do it for "market makers" today.

Tomorrow, and interview you won't want to miss.

For the full hour from 10:00 to 11:00 we will talk to the ceo of the world's largest asset manager, blackrock's larry fink.

You have seen what has gone on with pimco the last month.

Market volatility, bonds, the economy, a whole lot more.

Right now it is time for "lunch money." adam johnson, julie hyman, it is all yours.

This is "lunch money" on bloomberg television.

I am adam johnson.

I am julie hyman.

We will give you a tour of every asset class and market around the world.

Whatever you watching today 20,000 more job openings than expected, another sign may be that this economy is growing.

Ben bernanke, perhaps it is time to talk about tapering the bond purchases.

I think it is really time for "lunch money." and i'm sure we will be talking about earnings as well.

Let's go around the world for a look at what is ahead on lunch money.

Blackberry, the smartphone maker, came out about a week and half ago but it is their annual shareholders meeting today and the stock is up 2.5% on the comments of the ceo.

What is the future for blackberry, what is the options trade?

We will have that later on this hour.

Sterling is a three year low after industrial production contracted.

We will get a top strategist's pick on where the pound goes from here.

The s&p has risen over two percent since wednesday.

We are practically back to where we were on may 22 when ben bernanke first mention tapering the bond purchases.

Let's check where the markets are right now.

The dow jones is up to 60 points.

The s&p 500 is up a six/10. mastec is up before 10. i want to show you asked the nasdaq is up 10%. i want to show you the materials.

Alcoa beat by a penny.

That is not the takeaway.

Here's what is -- engineered products is up 12%, more than double the expectation of the increase of five percent.

That is good for materials in general.

You've got to have the two reels to make engineered products.

Take a look at the energy index.

Oil is up once again, trading 103.25. it cost me $94 to fill my cart this past weekend.

That's crazy.

I've got a shift down to regular octane.

Take a look at blackberry.

They are trying to get people excited about this company.

Up 2.6%. the ceo says that we are "100% open to partnerships." in other words, if you want to buy us, we will think about that.

Trying to get people excited about blackberry.

Hard to get people excited, but, you know, technology, up 30 basis points.

It is not easy to get people excited about technology right now.

There is not been a lot of growth.

Pc sales were down 14%, apple is had to back-to-back earnings declines.


It is difficult in technology.

Even though we had a rally, we are up for the fourth straight day, it feels like is tough to get people excited about anything.

It doesn't feel like a very passionate rally.

No, no passion.

Our next guest says beware what he calls the wolf market market as we head into earnings season.

Michael purvis is with us for the hour on "lunch money." what do you mean by wolf's market?

It is a somewhat timeless range-bound market.

Like an angry wolf?

Well, to make money, you have to be quick like a wolf.

You are not necessarily making a big somatic that long or short.

You have got to be fast and quick and decisive.

Why do you think that is happening?

In terms of being cast in quick and decisive -- give us a little more detail -- maybe a summer wolf.

Sleepy after fourth of july week.

We've had big wolf markets like, for example, 2011 where the s&p finish where it started almost of the penny.

Right now we've had a major correction off the may highs and the market is its footing again that -- the market has found its footing again.

We have the secular potential massive tidal shift with what is happening with the rates.

While this could be good for equities from a flow point of view, ultimately because it is a reflection of the real economy is starting to improve.

The market still has to process this.

I think it has processed a fair amount of this, but over the summer i think equity market volatility will range higher and there is a lot of structural themes supporting equities throughout the summer.

What it really sounds like to me is that we're back to earnings.

We are over gree ce, turkey, figure out what is happening in egypt.

Now it is back to the u.s. and dr.


-- and back to earnings.

And the markets have incorporated a lot of the tapering discussion.

We are just getting into the season here and typically over the last three or four years you have seen the markets that have flight to the season and make a judgment about what corporate earnings are reflecting about the real economy.

This season is going to be very different for one key reason -- a lot of stocks may benefit from the higher rate and -- higher volatility upgrade.

On the stocks will start showing signs of weakness.

Investors will be increasingly looking at that for the season.

You could look at that and say that this confirms the economy is good or confirms the economy is bad.

You think that fundamental economic backdrop will be more important to companies than the rate environment?

Outside financials, one would think that what how the the economy is doing is the driving factor.

Corporate earnings are going to be very important and they reflect the economy, but there is a lot of economic meant -- economic earnings outside of metrics that reflect that.

We have seen that in the jobs data with the last three days.

We've seen that throughout a variety of economic metrics.

I think it is one more factor here.

I know a lot of people are focused that it is all about earnings, and it is.

But the point i'm making is that there is a lot more stock -- single site dishes going on here -- you can't just say "i like the market or i like tech." you have to go back to individual names and stories.

Right, exactly.

For you as a strategist, where you tend to be big picture, what is that mean as you talk to clients -- as you get into the sectors, clearly we have had massive volatility and that impact everything from what i called the convertible bottle-like stocks.

Those you will see continued volatility.

Interesting tactical traits from alongside.

On the short side there is a lot of companies that have huge exposure to the construction sector.

Those are things that are going to the a little what more into the microscope for weakness.

I could be anything from the home depot to homebuilder -- rising rates will discourage people from buying?

Yes -- don't you usually get that sort of rush -- the train has left the station.

The mortgage data doesn't confirm that yet.

A lot of people are just confused here.

It is may be starting to show up if not in the actual results of this quarter into some of the forecasts.

I think those are the key watchpoints for the summer season.

Certainly a lot to watch.

Michael says that earnings are the story right now.

Slowing in asia , u.s. companies have to post growth once again in order to push stocks higher.

Michael purves is with us all our.

Indeed he is, and there is much more ahead on "lunch money ," including lunch.

We will have an exclusive look inside chipotle.

Shares of chipotle mexican grill have more than tripled over the past five years, giving the company a market cap -- ready for this -- of $11 million.

It is called fast casual, in case you didn't already know him and features fresh ingredients that appeared in the restaurant.

Tell them what you want and they make it right in front of you.

Carol massar has more on the company's nontraditional strategy.

Triple the is known for -- chipotle is known for serving fast and quality mexican food.

But making a tv show?

We are in l.a. shooting a web series we have created.

I don't know -- i want to know more about you.

It is about a group of likable but misguided people whose job is to steer aspects of industrial agriculture in a positive way.

It is part of the company's untraditional marketing play.

We don't do the same type of advertising everybody else does but if we were typical our advertising would be about the new menu item available for a limited time only.

Since we don't do that, we have other was to tell our story.

Baconator from wendy's. in stark contrast to its competitors, its main menu has hardly changed since the first store opened 20 years ago.

There are so many combinations of flavors that i don't think it is about a new menu item.

Breakfast or anything?

We opened a restaurant in an airport, and part of the lease stipulation is that we be open during breakfast.

We have a new frittata that we guys up the -- diced up the same sizes are chicken or steak.

It is part of the breakfast burrito or bowl or tacos, and it is delicious.

We will see how it goes.

By now we are continuing to serve it there.

Always a possibility.

One new item that is on the menu, jubilee began serving -- chipotle began serving a vigan -- vegan filling.

There are many vegans or vegetarians in general asking for the sort of thing.

But will want a new menu item be enough to bring in customers?

Aaa --chipotle is sticking to its strategy.

It is what you experience when you come into this restaurant.

Do you love what you eat?

Carol massar, bloomberg.

What you experience is pretty awesome.

I love that place.

I have to admit, i'm a fan, too.

What is interesting about chipotle, it is this the skyrocketing growth stock year after year and last year it ran into a speed bump it there were concerns on the part of high- profile investors, was taco bell going to provide true competition, was chipotle going to be able to keep up this growth, and the stock fell.

But it is up to 30% year to date.

Somewhere along the way people realize -- chipotle, to popaco bell, truly different experiences.

One is fast food, one is not.

A little bit different.

You can hear more about the strategy on "inside chipotle," tonight at 9:30. we will bring back michael purves to talk not just about chipotle but in summer stocks.

This is one of the groups that, counterintuitively, as does so well over the past years.

People don't have jobs.

The economy supposedly has been struggling.

And yet these these countries have been so, so well.

It is fantastic radio a few look back to 2008, one of the highest quality rallies, not only of the stocks going up a lot, but consolidations have been modest.

If you go long in one sector, this is the sector to have been in.

One is the rush for convenience, the second is clean eating, organic and all that.

We have seen that with whole foods, etc.

And of course, the custom-made dimension of that.

Those stocks have been growth stocks.

High pe class, but companies like amazon have also been high pe and have shorts.

Priceline, another one.

What is it about the u.s. consumer that has caused people -- why do we keep spending so much money?

[laughter] you just look at that chart, it is relentless.

We keep spending money and the sox keep going up and we have a premium price.

All related.

Part of it is related to secular themes on how every aspect of technology has made convenience that much more important.

But also, instead of -- it has been a defining feature of the u.s. economy for decades now and it is increasing.

It is a good thing we're spending all this money, the 70% of our gdp or it -- the 70% of our gdp.

For that matter would be problematic.

What happens now with this particular group?

It is hard to get a handle on the market when we see this company by company volatility.

But if you look at consumers as a group, and i am looking at what you mentioned here.

Chipotle valued at 42 times earnings right now.

Are people going to continue to pay these premium valuations, and are we going to continue to see as now the economy is supposed to be gaining a little traction -- are we going to continue to see rally in the stocks?

One of these tricky things where they are very difficult the short and you can make a lot of great arguments to sure these stocks fundamentally.

You can run cash analysis and forget the prices they are traded at now.

But let's face it, we are in a market heavily defined by momentum and there are algorithmic dynamics with the machines and all that.

The key is to watch for the early cell signals.

If some of the stocks you are in a continuing to rally and you are not seeing confirmation on the momentum side, those are good cell signals.

, not playing on the dips as has been happening the past several years?

You can, but in terms of getting out, look for the loss of momentum as you see in various technical factors.

Thanks, michael.

Of course, you are going to be with us for the rest of the hour as well.

We will be talking currencies.

The pound is hitting the lowest level since june 2010. coming up next, a bloomberg best currency forecaster and her take on where the pound goes from here.

? you are watching "lunch money," streaming on your tablet, your phone, and

The euro is sliding to a three- month low against the dollar after an official from the ecb signalled it would remain a, date of for a year.

-- remain accommodative for you.

-- four year.

South african platinum -- the dollar has been weakening, helping the rand advance.

Our cover story today has been a pound.

It is declining to the lowest level since june 20, 2010 after factory output in the uk unexpectedly shrank in may.

Joining me is camilla sutton, a bloomberg best and chief currency strategist at scotia bank to talk about what happened with the pound.

We have the economic data.

This is a reversal of what we have seen recently because the economic data in the uk by and large has been improving, at least to some degree.

How big of a setback is today's economic data and the move in the currency?

2 different questions.

The economic data isn't excuse the traders are looking for.

Weak industrial production and manufacturing data.

All of those things are very volatile month-to-month.

Those are really just the excuse and the truth of the matter is that when it has been confirmed now that policy in europe, the uk, is moving in a very different direction than it is at the fed and the u.s., and that just feeds the u.s. dollar strength environment.

Today's date it was really just the excuse that traders were looking for.

We have bernanke speaking tomorrow as well as the minutes.

Arc is pretty quiet, and then all of a sudden the day came out and people started selling sterling and it took on a life of its own.

We see sterling at new three- year lows and the momentum behind it is very strong.

It sounds like this is going to be a continued move.


When we have momentum like this it is tough to step ahead of it.

When we have policy divergence, now we have a question marks about what was looking like affirming uk economy.

The combination of those two are fairly negative.

The other thing we have is building negative sentiment against sterling.

We see the sterling short position has been building for the u.s. it has been but there is a long way to build that.

This there is that we have downside pressure.

Sterling trends lower but in the near-term the momentum is pretty strong, and the technicals are telling us that things like rsi 's are saying that we are nowhere near oversold levels.

Almost every single technical is in sell territory.

With a you are a traitor look in the next or two or looking at the year-long end.

Your year-end argot for the pound is 1.45. morgan stanley's is as low as 141. i'm just serious how you determine how low you think it is going to go.

I think the point forecast in terms of the year renders thomas one thing they know president -- one think they know for certain is that we would have the forecast wrong and we hope we get the magnitude close to write.

Academic ones don't help us very much and sentiment tends to have a really important piece overall.

In terms of 145, the ideas that they direction for sterling is over and the direction direction for other currencies like canada and australia is that we will see more weakness for the sterling that from other currencies.

By year-end we should be substantially lower than we are now.

We drop the six percent since mid-june.

We have seen a big decline but momentum is behind it.

Thank you so much.

Appreciate it.

Camilla sutton, chief currency strategist at scotia bank, said the year-end target is 1.45. it will continue to go lower.

Where in the world is edward snowden?

Better yet, where is he going?

We have the answers coming up on "lunch money." ? this is "lunch money" on bloomberg television and we are streaming live under tablet, phone, and

Here's a look at the top stories at the bottom of the hour.

Regulators want to to boost capital standards at the nation's biggest banks, higher thing global requirements.

The comptroller of the currency is proposing the capital and u.s.-backed deposit and lending units the six percent, twice the global standard.

The fdic is set to vote on the proposal later today.

There is a new sheriff in town.

The new york stock exchange will supervise the london interbank offering rate.

That is the benchmark interest rate known as libor, replaces the biggest -- british bankers association, which started libor two decades ago.

It followed a scandal where bankers try to manipulate the libor rate.

Vanguard has been hit with the first monthly redemptions in almost 20 years.

Investors dumped bond funds on fears that the federal reserve.

I guess it buying.

Net withdrawals from -- totaled $100 million, the first since december 1994 according to vanguard.

Federal invested it is continued their hunt for answers into the crash of asiana flight 200 14. two more members of the flight crew faced questioning today.

Chief washington correspondent peter cook is in bc with more details.

-- isn't d.c. with morbid details.

Our investigators getting a better idea of the cause?

Not yet.

They have not found evidence of mechanical problems or other issues would have -- that would've explained the crash.

But they look for the interviews the crewmembers will shed light on what happened.

2 more are said to be interviewed today, including the pilot in training at the controls saturday.

The big question, why did the pilots tried to land the plane below the targets -- target speed for touchdown?

One had more than 12,000 hours in the cockpit and he was training the other pilot, who had nearly 10,000 hours.

43 in the boeing triple seven, his first landing in san francisco, though he had landed other planes there.

The airline pilots association is questioning regulators' handling of the investigation.

They say they are stunned by the release of much flight data this early in the probe, calling an unprecedented and that it only encourages wild speculation about the cause.

The ceo of asiana airlines is expected in san francisco today to personally meet with crash victims.

[bell rings] thank you, peter cook, with of the latest on the investigation into the crash of asiana flight 214. now to the saga of edward snowden.

A lawmaker in russia who tweeted that snowden had accepted asylum in venezuela has deleted that tweet.

Hans nichols joins us now.

Social media is a tricky, tricky thing.

Was it true, was it not?

What's going on?

We have to go back to what we know, and as of monday night the president of venezuela said that he has received the offer for asylum.

That is all we know.

You have no idea where they are with acceptance.

We have to make this distinction between asylum offer as well as travel documentation.

That is what snowden doesn't have.

The only commercial flight from moscow to venezuela needs to refuel in cuba.

On sunday night, cuban president raul castro says that, yes, he did support the idea of granting him a silent but he silent on the idea of whether he could stop and there could be a transit zone.

There is a lot more that we don't know about this case than we do.

The white house is buttoned down and we will be pressing them for more information on what sort of steps they would be willing to take to intercept the plane that may or may not be carrying snowdon.

President obama has indicated that the u.s. is not going to be super aggressive about going after him.

Yeah, but take a caution on that.

The president has said that on several occasions in his trip to africa, that they wouldn't scramble fighter jets.

This is the official u.s. posture.

But privately there seems to be intense diplomacy going on.

A plane carrying evo morales, the president of bolivia, was grounded in vienna.

Things like that don't happen unless there is intense pressure brought to bear.

Ok, hans nichols, thank you so much, coming to us with the latest on edward snowden.

Coming up on "lunch money ," a new fund for the israeli startup scene.

We will hear from the veteran tech investor who was behind it from tel aviv.

And make sure you check us out on twitter, @lunchlady, for the latest and greatest on the business menu.

I won't be making any mistakes, hopefully.

Neither of us.

See you in two minutes.

? the new hotbed for tech startups, so much so that 2 veteran tech investors have set up a $140 million venture capital fund focused on early- stage is really startups. -- -- elliot gotkine spoke with the cofounder.

The response is humbling, no other way to describe it.

We are grateful for the lps that we got into our new fund and putting the money to work, we think there are great opportunities here.

We did not have to spend that much time raising money.

Many might be wondering why you called this after the first letter of the hebrew alphabet.

In hebrew numerology , it is number one, which is what we are striving to be.

More interestingly for bloomberg viewers, the hebrew letter aleph is the precursor letter for the grief alpha, -- for the letter alpha.

We are trying to deliver a lot of alpha and you need aleph.

And doing investments in early-stage companies can we talk about this being the start of nation.

What is the big idea, the difference compared to benchmark capital?

What has happened in israel is that there has been a drainage out of the available capital.

A tennessee capital with micro vc -- a ton of c capital with the seat -- vc's. israeli entrepreneurs want to build a very large companies and they headquartered and i'm here.

Companies like conduit are headquartered here in israel.

Any the local support in series a and the silicon valley support in the future to do that.

There was an opening in the market for series a capital and we moved in to fill it.

In terms of what you are planning to do and what is going on in israel, did you get a sense that the israeli company sell out too quickly and don't sell out too quickly?

-- is really company sell out too quickly?

Wave is a company that did not sell out too early.

It is an icon for israeli entrepreneurs that strive to build bigger companies.

Not everyone did that.

Historically company sold for $300 million and those were the dominant icons.

We need copies with multibillion-dollar exits from israel and that is what is happening right now in this country.

That is what we want to do.

The $2 million to $5 million financing that is does billy needed for our two-putted -- that is a desperately needed for a was likely.

I think i saw a big data as one of your ideas could any particular areas you want to get into with this money?

Our intelligence units have data centers the size of google and facebook combined, and the world has caught up to israel's capability with the data.

But in general, israel is really good at disrupting old industries.

If you are looking at aleph, a company was selling research as it was decomposing and you can see other examples of this out of israel.

The israeli chutzpah flights in those environments.

What is next, another fund?

What is the big plan for the future?

A couple weeks of vacation to recover from the fundraising.

We are meeting with entrepreneurs looking forward to deploying capital.

"slowly, slowly" is a phrase in israel.

We're thinking about building companies out of aleph 1. that was elliot gotkine with the cofounder of the aleph fund.

Dominic chu, what do you have for us?

We all know that blackberry is having its annual meeting today.

We're hearing interesting spots from blackberry ceo about what is happening.

But overall, you have to look at this stock.

Up 3.2% today.

Will it continue?

Is there a future for blackberry?

? "lunch money" on bloomberg television, streaming under tablet, your phone, and

It may be the final chapter for barnes & noble.

The ceo has resigned and will not be replaced.

The company is looking to separate its digital media unit.

Cory johnson is live in san francisco with more.

There are so many moving parts with this company.

What is going to happen here?

This is the story of all businesses as they approach technological change.

You have this fantastic book business once a noble, grown-up from a single bookstore in greenwich village to be one of the largest book retailers, great american retailer in deep.

Still suddenly struggling with

They are clever in spitting out there business at the height of the ip mania and they folded business once the business sort of -- the dot-com businesses sort of collapse.

Clever way to get money.

But then they have this new technological change to wrestle with, the e-book. is well positioned to profit from e-books and they came out with a kindle device, a success for them.

The nook at first had success but the second innovation missed the mark and they missed the holiday sales season and the business is spiraling.

You can see them deciding to create a separate nook entity.

A really struggling business there.

Retail bookstores are actually doing ok.

The retail bookstores are what the founder wants to buy back.

Back in february come at the front of the company, still the chairman -- the founder of the company, still the chairman, said he would like to take this private.

It seems that that could the dunleavy more likely than not.

He knows -- he is no joke.

He knows what works and he recognizes that there might be a lot of excitement about the e- book business and the reader business, not a lot of profit in it for him.

It actually takes quite a bit of scale to do these devices.

A company like apple, a giant company, technology company like amazon can handle it.

Barnes & noble couldn't and he victimizes it is time to step away and you can see that from his movement here.

I think that the story from 10 or 15 years ago, he recognizes there is a way to take other people's money to start these businesses but fundamentally, he wants to keep that retail book business alive.

Wants to keep his baby alive for short.

You can watch "bloomberg west" at 1:00 p.m. in the east and 10:00 in the west and then in the evening on bloomberg television.

Dom, what are you watching and options?

I am watching this smartphone and the company that makes it.

We're talking about blackberry.

Can it pull itself up by the bootstraps?

The ceo said in the annual meeting today that the company will explore every option to create value and open itself up to partnership to do so.

Are options traders buying into the turnaround trade for blackberry?

We have 2 traders with 2 sides of this story.

They're both hanging out at the cme, ready to go face-to-face.

They are right next week other at the cme.

What's going on with blackberry and why is this that traders are seeing insomuch that everything the company says?

It is a big decline.

I am looking for some key support at the eight dollar level.

That was the november by cap.

I want to lean on that level.

I want to be a buyer near eight dollars in blackberry.

The reward is greater than the risk at these levels.

That is one side of things.

Andrew, you are not as optimistic on some of these parts of blackberry.

No, i think he does go higher between now and the end of the year.

It went from $18 to nine dollars.

I think the floor is around six dollars.

$5.70 a share in cash.

We have seen this before in hp cue, best buy.

I thought both those countries were going out of business.

There is upside potential for blackberry but i want to define my risk versus reward.

My trade is simple -- bull calls in january, 2 earnings catalysts in there.

January 10, 15 ball calls, do this for about a dollar food -- do this for about a dollar.

I don't want to be selling puts in the same because it hasn't bruised so badly.


He doesn't want to sell puts trade.

I do.

I would put in the price to buy it at eight dollars or i would sell the 9 put.

39 days left until expiration.

My basis is a dollars $.50. that is 11% lower than what we are here.

I could sell cover calls against it if i choose.

I am using the put-selling strategy as a way to get in at a level i am comfortable with.

$830 is my mask some risk -- i look at my risk versus reward set up and i'm looking at a 4-1 set up.

Alan is trying to make -- i just made $.40. five percent return under my risk -- and i can get 400 -- you can, but you need a big, big move.

Let's bring in another voice.

Michael purves, you have been with us the entire hour.

On blackberry, this is interesting to look that matches because of the drama playing playing out but because of the price dynamic.

How would you be playing this particular name?

This stock is an option itself -- what do you mean?

It has a fair amount of binary outcome over the long term.

This is not something you put in your pa and forget about for 10, the way you might with exxon mobil.

How would you play it?

I am partial to the bull call spread.

The imply levels were not very expensive.

Relative to how they have been trading, selling puts on this kind of stock makes me nervous.

Andrew, you first.

He likes the call spread.

With your two views, why is it that the call spread does or doesn't work?

I talk about this a lot.

I don't like names that are down.

You can only make $.40 on the trade but you are risking $860 to only make $40. i don't want to own the stock.

It can go lower to the 60 level and then they puts would be three dollars.

I can write another option for the next one and write another option for the next one.

It is a way to get into a stock i want to own and a lower price and you mentioned the option.

It is priced like an option because it is nine dollars right now but what is the downside for nine dollars?

Not going to zero most likely.

It is not going to zero, in my estimation.


Thank you so much for bringing us those views on blackberry, and of course to michael purves as well.

Bottom line on this options update, andrew says that he is buying a bull calls read that expires in january 2014. alan is looking shorter-term, selling the august cash-secured what option on blackberry.

He would like to own the stock at eight dollars if it ever gets to the discount level.

Michael purves weighs in on the call spread as well.

We want you to weigh in, so tweet us, @lunchlady.

That is the options portion of our menu and we will be back in two minutes.

? stocks are rising on a better jobs picture.

One concern for you is recent volatility in the bond market.

Why would the bond volatility necessarily be a problem for stocks?

For several reasons.

The central banking has defined the equity market conditions over the past few years.

We got used to it.

Last year volatility was getting crushed every day.

It was often of payment -- painful experience.

I think the fix is edging into a higher range right now.

There are a lot of reasons for it.

Quite literally ben bernanke put it is further out on the money if you look at equities as a closet-bond replacement.

Look at the dividend yield and it went positive in late may.

The rally triggered a lot of volatility.

We will have to leave it there.


This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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