Slowing Growth in China and Japan: Juckes

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Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Societe Generale Global Strategist Kit Juckes discusses 2013 and his outlook for 2014 on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)

World cup.

Kit, who will win the world cup?

The germans.

All i know is who won the world cup.

I'm trying to look backwards from next christmas.

That tells you how i feel about 2014. my money is on the germans.

We are reviewing 2014. we are not previewing it.

We are reviewing it.

Will it be dull?

The starting point for financial markets is that the fed will not raise interest rates and the ecb will not raise interest rates.

The bank of japan will not raise interest rates and some things will not change.

The gap between nominal gdp growth may have widened 4.5% by this time next year and we will still be pushing a lot of money into financial assets and will be trying to work out of that.

We will not talk about tapering.

We will talk about macro prudential policies and whether or not they work.


2014 sounds like a real hoot already.

You talk about the banks not raising rates.

Some will carry on.

Some 10 and that makes them interesting.

The ecb will do what they can and we will talk about negative deposit rates a long time before we get them.

She we -- qe?

The ecb has to have a debate with the germans on whether or not it is legal and the debate has to happen.

One month of slightly higher inflation in europe does not mean that the threat of deflation has gone away.

Will this happen before the world cup?

The world cup is not until next summer.

In some countries, we saw italian confidence numbers up yesterday morning and it looks like they are heading down the slope in the wrong way.

I'm trying to think about how you head down a ski slope in the right way.

Italy is going the other way.

You would like them to be going somewhere gentle.

You are not helping.

I think that the real thing that changes in europe, in a sense, is what happens if we start seeing consumer price inflation getting closer to zero again.

We had a month where it looked like things were better or higher.

Suddenly, the language changed and you had a sterner debate when things got tougher.

I don't have things improving much in europe.

I'm surprised about mentioned france.

. you look -- i'm surprised that you have not mentioned france.

European policy is not tied to fiscal policy.

The country is suffering from a serious competitiveness problem and we can see that.

France has the problem and germany has a solution, to some degree, in terms of finding policy.

Although the pace of bond buying has slowed through next year, they will not let your author look by two percent -- let europe off of the hook.

Thinking six months in advance, we will see rates go up in the u.k. and united states.

When does the markets are pricing this and?

-- on?in?

2015. you see that macro debate and mark carney not raising interest rates because the economy is doing better.

At what point do we not believe him?

That debate could happen in united states.

The fed is working overtime and has won the battle of making us understand the tapering is not tightening.

Tapering is not tightening.

We all have that now.

And six months time, we can talk about tightening.

In four months, if we see a fed that is dovish, how will the markets interpret that?

This is more dangerous for currency markets.

We will break the bond market out of its range.

1.5-2 over the summer, that is the big adjustment for tapering.

We will moving to the range during the first half of the year.

At that point, um, what could be a good start in the year for emerging market currencies is going to have a danger of a shakeout and that is the dangerous moment.

-- momentst, when the fed becomes behind the curve.

I think that the catalyst for the markets to look at the world differently are another step up.

Only have that step up, -- when we have that step up, we survived and it will be difficult next year when the bond market exerts pressure on the advertisers.

Kit, thank you so much for now.

Stay with us.

Can big going -- bitcoin by chris christie -- by a christmas tree.

Served in style by 50 butlers.

Customer blankets.

We should point out that boxing day is after christmas in

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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