Risks Exist, but OECD Forecast Is Too Low: Nielsen

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Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Erik Nielsen, chief global economist at Unicredit, talks with Guy Johnson about the OECD lowering its global growth forecast for 2014. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

Market is a bit bearish.

There are certainly enough risks in the system.

But for them to come out now and to downgrade their global forecast, i found surprising.

They have gone lower than the imf was in october.

They're lower than we are.

The fact is that we always -- whatever is competent to come faster than the forecast.

So it is sort of two quarters into the economy to suddenly revise down.

This is not a normal economic recovery, then.

No, it isn't. but think we understand more or less what is holding it back, right e usually these companies are export revenue.

This one is not because it was so global.

The big unknown is the emerging markets and as he talked about the u.s.. for me, those are more risks than they are mainline or baseline scenarios.

You are not concerned about the impact of the fed to run emerging markets e reject what the impact of the cabin countries like south africa and turkey are you not concerned that we could end up in january with possibly an even more intractable political situation in congress when it comes to the debt ceiling that currier says it should militate not exist?

. i think every bases low growth in those countries that they have to adjust a little to reality.

The big risk there is that it is not contained within those five countries but let's tem general.

I think it is a risk not a big one.

And united states, i would've thought that the fight we were through was that the republicans have no appetite for shutting down government again.

It seems to me that the clinical outcome of this was that obama won.

It would be messy and i completely agree with this news on debt ceiling and these issues.

But i think it is relatively minor risk that it would be very disruptive.

Elitism the country's account of this quite well.

Uk has had its growth numbers upgraded.

Two countries which a been fairly aggressive and monetary policy, certainly compared with the uc be.

-- compared with the ecb.

The monetary is extraordinary measures, it were amazingly effective in preventing the end of the world scenario.

But in terms of stimulating the recovery, i think it is less clear.

In this country, the uk, they have stimulated the housing pickup and that is a fair chance that that very lopsided recovery receiver now willisl become nice along the way.

But there's also good risk and that could be tears and belt- tightening.

The bank of england suddenly said, or maybe this whole typing was started earlier than you thought.

It would be interesting to get into that.

But with the oecd a little bit more.

12 months for now we are talking to angel gurria.

Will he be downgrading numbers again are upgrading numbers again?

Most economists tend to underestimate the ability of an economy to recover.

12 months from now, better or worse?


The growth number is lower than the average of the 10 years before the emerging markets took off.

10 years back from 1992 early 2000 or thereabouts with just three percent.

Now he sees for next year it even lower than that.

The strong used were thebrics countries with over four percent.

Eric, so nice to see you.

Chief economist at unicredit.

The pulse will continue in a couple of minutes.

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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