Ukraine Plane Crash Amid 'Shadow War': Bremmer

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July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Pro-Russian rebels shot down a Malaysian jet carrying 295 people over eastern Ukraine near its border with Russia, an Interior Ministry official said. Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer speaks on “Market Makers.” (Source: Bloomberg)

From new jersey, president of the eurasia group.

As we are learning more, has your response changed?

You were going to see market reaction, this is bad for russia and that for europe.

The fact is, there is going to be a lot more pressure on the u.s. and the europeans to provide military support for the ukrainians to help roust these separatists from east ukraine.

There are reasons why both do not want to get involved.

You have got a lot of europeans on this plane that are now dead on the ground in the southeast.

It is going to be an outcry in some european circles, telling these folks we have to do more.

We cannot just sit on the sidelines.

There are going to because that the american sanctions have been ineffectual.

Putin is saying was not me, was not us and we will defend the right of russians on the ground who have had referenda for autonomy and independence in this territory.

The likelihood of military escalation as a consequence of this tragedy, almost surely a mistake, is very high.

No question accusations will be traded on both sides.

The ukrainians are accusing the insurgents, the insurgents will accuse the ukrainians.

How possible is it to establish with certainty who shot the missile on what part of the country came from?

In the near term, almost impossible to establish that short of the local separatists deciding that they want to say that they take responsibility.

Almost inconceivable.

In the same way, we have had a minus accusations from the russians and ukrainians through this crisis over the last three months.

The stakes have gotten higher and there is no reason that this will change.

The crash site will probably be "corrupted" by forces on the ground.

Hard to believe we are going to get what looks like certainty.

Calls for cooler heads and patience.

This is an escalade tory environment.

-- this is an escalatory environment.

Military casualties, sanctions expanded yesterday.

This would be absolutely the worst time for this to occur.

The markets do not necessarily know how to respond to geopolitical events.

There are impacts that affect those investing in this region.

Is there a possibility that the ukrainian government is responsible for this tragedy?

Just to reiterate, the interior ministry of the ukraine says that pro-russian insurgents shot this plane down.

Is it possible that some incompetent or an experienced member of the ukrainian military actually pressed the button?

Anything is possible.

The ukrainians do have the military capacity to shoot down a plane.

This is the highest flying claimed that the russian separatists would have shot down if they got it.

Having said that, the separatists are not flying any planes in this region.

The separatists themselves have already shot down a number of planes.

A preponderance of evidence, reasonable doubt at this point is pointing to the russian separatists.

You are not going to get conclusive proof, certainly not in the near-term when all of the sides are going to be on a razor's edge as to demand an escalation.

We are seeing reports on twitter and elsewhere from inter fax that the rebels have reached the site where the plane appears to have crashed.

At this point, it is almost beyond a doubt that the plane crashed, the question is whether it was shot down.

When you talk about the site being corrected, what do you mean?

There is a decent chance you are not going to get the black locks.

The crash site, when any international observers might get to it, is not going to be in the same condition as it is presently.

As a consequence, it is going to be more difficult to piece together what happened here.

It is going to be hard to make definitive proof that this was actually shot down by a russian separatists.

The evidence is pretty significant but the evidence is circumstantial.

That makes it much harder.

Keep in mind that putin himself has been at no point taking any responsibility for the military acts occurring in south east ukraine.

Clearly there are russian citizens that are involved, volunteerring in military activities.

There are also a lot of ukrainian citizens involved.

That makes this more complicated.

This is not a clean war between russians and ukrainians, this is a shadow war, a gray zone between local ukrainians that are opposed to mr.

Poroshenko in kiev.

Supported, funded, and clearly having gotten arms from the russian government.

Very little of which is provable.

Interfax is reporting -- excuse me, ukrainian rebel forces, the pro-russian insurgents in eastern ukraine have reached the site of the crash and say that they are going to turn over the black box.

We have yet to see whether that happens.

At the moment, that is what they say, according to reports from interfax.

Ian bremmer of the eurasia group

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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