Egypt on the brink.
The death toll climbs.
Oil is up.
In the united states, the healthcare revolution will be delayed.
President obama concedes businesses are not ready to comply with a key coverage mandate.
He brought gain to microsoft xbox, now as a zynga prepares for gambling future, it is betting on a savior.
Is it overrated?
This is "surveillance." i am tom keene.
It is, july 3. joining me, working through the week, scarlet fu is with us and alix steel is in for sara eisen.
New york university stearns jp edgar's from a professor of management and leadership, focusing on how managers make decisions like moving from microsoft to zynga.
Terrific news flow.
So much going on.
Joining us also is ian bremmer from it the perfect guy to talk to us this morning about all the turmoil in egypt as well as changes taking place in portugal.
First, our morning briefing.
A busy morning.
Portugal's bond yield soaring over eight percent.
Contracting more than estimated in june, also in portugal, the foreign affairs minister quit in protest at the government's budget policy after the country's finance chief minister also step down earlier this week read in asia, it was more bad news in china.
Wrote in the services industry slowed -- more bad news in china, the service industry slowed.
It has been a challenge in the last 18 hours.
Europe still has issues reflected in the bond yields.
A lot of economic data here as well ahead of the july 4 holiday.
We get the onslaught of jobs data this morning.
A really busy day.
Equities, bonds, currencies are moving.
So much conversation this morning.
Portugal saw a much weaker euro in the last 18 hours.
Crude, west texas intermediate, brent crude, elevated to 105. on to the next screen, the dollar -- and hit 100 and nine half ago.
-- 109 half an hour ago.
The yield much higher.
U.s. stock market closes early today at 1:00 p.m. and the bond market closes at 2:00 p.m. friday we are open all day.
I will be on vacation.
All over the front pages this morning is the white house making a big announcement late yesterday on the health care law that has huge ramifications for businesses across the united states.
Hans nichols is on the phone from washington.
This is a delay in one crucial part of the president's health care reform, isn't it?
Yes, and are pretty big part in the most important part about the delay is a put it past the midterm elections.
For democrats that are worried about how this law will be implemented january 24, they just got a one-year reprieve pass the midterms.
A lot of the hiccups people are expecting may not happen.
Crucially, business groups are cheering this.
They say it is important.
What about the individual mandate?
It did not affect the individual mandate, which is a requirement that every individual has to have insurance.
It could complicate the ability to figure out who actually needs that mandate.
Companies under 50 people were not quimby be subject to this new requirement under obamacare -- were not going to be subject to this new requirement under obamacare.
The question is, is there going to be a whole set of people out there that we don't know about whether or not they're eligible to participate are required to participate in the state run insurance marketplace?
It solves a bit of a problem for the white house, but the fundamental problem of actually ensuring people will persist.
Hans nichols, we will check in with you later on.
So much going on.
The economic data.
The jobs report today into friday.
Portugal, all of the sudden.
Right now egypt is very alone.
You told me a few days ago this was like the algerian crisis of 1992. do you anticipate the violence of egypt that we saw in algeria, for one, two, even three years?
The fact is, president morsi has shown no willingness to negotiate over the course of the 48 hour ultimatum that has been provided by the army.
Many of his cabinet ministers have resigned at this point, but his core supporters are the muslim brotherhood, far -- what percentage in egypt?
In terms of committed supporters, probably 30% of the population.
They are not going away.
While there is enormous opposition to him in the military is not going to back down, so morsi is gone.
He has less time on his hands right now than nelson mandela.
The brotherhood, which has really been destroyed politically as a force over the course of the last two days, absolutely going to respond with violence.
If i read my ian bremmer, i know the u.s. is going to want to support the control element, which is the military.
What does the military desire this morning?
The military has been more than happy to work with the brotherhood as long as the brotherhood showed they could maintain some level alluded -- of legitimacy.
They have already taken over one of the most important newspapers in egypt and they have laid out basically what their plan is.
They would have a three-person presidency that would effectively be run by the military for brief brief.
Of time and then they would have quick elections that would replace more i's being deposed -- morsi's being deposed.
They are planning to have democratic elections.
If you asked me if it will involve violence in egypt given what we are seeing right now, the answer is absolutely yes.
Why don't we have an arab spring, everybody.
That is where we are.
The deadline is about 11:00 eastern and ian is the perfect person to talk about that.
Equipped another story has to do with michael dell under pressure to raise his bid for the company . shareholder services is leading against the michael dell takeover unless he sweetens his deal, according to a person briefed on the matter.
The pressure is building on the buyout as the two big shareholders, carl icahn and as a management on the one hand who continues to attack the deal, and the shareholder vote rapidly nearing.
July 18 is d-day.
To be clear, mr.
Dell has billions involved read -- involved.
He owns 15% of the company, so he is a large stake.
Is in this business as usual in a soap opera to have a last- minute where the founder has to come in and pony up more money?
Certainly, any deal like this, one party is going to sweep in with a push at the last minute to try to get it done.
The founder putting this much money on the table is a rare occurrence.
But it seems like nothing is good enough.
These are polar opposite deals.
Michael dell was to re-create the entire company from the ground up and carl icahn wants to milk the existing core down to the last drop.
They're so different and distinct, the money balancing becomes the issue.
The wall street journal says, the rest is to come from the company's cash.
The shareholders are going to get a huge portion of their cash.
They're going to get relatively similar motto -- similar cash.
Ask any chance they will just walk away?
No, they're sitting on too much cash for nothing to come out of this, i think ari at -- i think.
We will have this through the morning here on bloomberg television.
Let's get to company news.
Prudential versus the treasury department, challenging the government's finding it poses a potential risk to the financial system.
For dental says its insurance activities do not pose a systemic risk and posted a hearing for its case.
Others were also slapped with a risk label and said they will not appeal.
New york looking at how walmart and home depot pay employees.
They are among a group of companies the state attorney general is investigating for the use of prepaid cards which are used as paychecks by a growing number of employers but fees are sometimes to dr.
When workers go to withdraw their cash.
Bloomberg has earned apple and time warner cable are close to a deal.
The agreement would give time warner cable subscribers access to cable channels on apple tv.
A deal could be announced in a few months.
I cannot think of a product that has been more anticipated than apple tv.
What is it, a watch pot never boils?
I am waiting for the iwarttch.
The obama ministration is delaying for a year a key feature of the centerpiece health care law.
What are the impacts on businesses and politics?
That brings us to our twitter question this morning -- ? good morning.
A cloudy wednesday morning on the e-gov the july 4 celebration.
We are here at "surveillance." we have a lot to talk about.
Right now the obama administration will delay until 2015 the requirement that businesses -- the key phrase -- with more than 50 employees provide health insurance to their workers or pay a penalty.
Congressional republicans took a victory lap.
Of the politics observed last evening, our guest speak's -- our guest speaks to the politics observed last evening.
What a bombshell.
Problems in europe and egypt will dominate, but this is a very, very big deal, a real blow to the obama administration.
Did valerie jarrett in support of her president, did she do this because of process of the affordable care act or is this just singularly about 2014? i think it is about 2014. said, but disingenuously, they were just listening to business.
Being a cynic, i would are you they were -- i would argue they were worried about layoffs.
Is this is shedding employees just to get below 50, or trying to avoid the standards.
Who needs that during an election year?
Republicans immediately move from the business delay to a full delay or at least an individual delay as well.
What is the likelihood of that?
24 hours ago i would have told you there was no chance of any delay, now i would say it is pretty unlikely.
This landscape is changing.
You have an administration that is backtracking, very much on the defensive.
What about the insurance exchange everyone is talking about that was supposed to be open october 1? i think the enrollment will begin.
Whether it will be extended is now three much in play, but i do think it will begin.
I cannot emphasize strongly enough what a political albatross this is, not just for the white house, but for democrats running for the house and senate next year.
The loneliness of the albatross, the size, what -- how likely is it that they can simply do away with so-called obamacare?
They cannot do that, i think, until the spring of 2017. if a republican wins in the fall 2016 and you have a pretty conservative house and senate, then i do think in the spring of 2017 you can do away with it.
But i think it has four more years to go.
What does the obama administration do now?
I think they will aggressively advertise and educate on the enrollment on october 1, and try to spin this as a development that favors business.
I think it is a tough one for them.
Thank you so much, it greg vlliere.
Jp, these are shocks.
They are outside the round.
All of a sudden, here it is.
One of the big things is the fact the exhaustion is shock is business as usual.
It comes back to what they have doing in recent years.
They have been starting to put in place plans or procedures and policies in tracking and reporting, now that stuff kind of goes away.
It is a restructuring within the firm.
It all goes back to, it is just about politics.
I thought there was a little bias on the part of the guest there.
You will get that from greg.
The economy right now is picking up, but we are having this conversation round tapering as well, employment is not picking up as quickly as economists and washington would like to see, why wouldn't you back off a little bit to allow -- this is not the time, if you think there's going to be an impact negatively on the economy, you have businesses saying to back off.
What that means for wages and household income.
I am curious, the white house has more than 96% of companies are to offer health insurance with the 50 plus employees.
Who is making the noise?
The concerns are the margin.
But that is a huge portion of these companies that have 55, 80, 70 employees and a big concern they're going to want to push back at that point in time.
The pushback is partly policy- based, but it is also political.
A lot of these ceos would like to see obamacare disappear entirely, even though there are ready compliant.
We have portugal blowing up with some real tension in europe, we have the jobs report, egypt.
And now new politics from washington.
Also coming up, time warner could be moving on west from its headquarters to the far, far west of new york city.
Coming up in the next hour, insider possible hudson yards home.
? good morning.
The day before the fourth of july.
I have the grill heated up, ready to go.
Sara eisen is on assignment.
She is in italy.
Top headlines, we can do the rest of the hour -- a showdown between the military and president mohamed morsi i in just a few hours, the military imposed deadline for morsi to find a solution to the turmoil will expire.
Orsi has vowed to stay on as president despite calls for his resignation.
Clashes between his supporters and opponents have killed 23 people in the last day.
Occupancy rates in u.s. shopping centers are at a four-year high.
It is due to a drop-off in construction of shopping centers and not gains in retail sales according to research firms.
They dropped to the lowest since 2009. in sports, baseball's first no- hitter of the season was thrown by homer bailey of the cincinnati reds.
He's drugged out nine, 3 -- -- he struck out nine.
September 20 8, 2012 was the last no-hitter.
So much going on, let's get started with scarlet fu.
Luxury retailer potentially going public, and not neiman marcus, but the container store that sells boxes, closet systems.
A columnist writes that -- the ceo who says the country -- the company does not sell space as much as it does time.
Having things set up nicely.
When you walk in the store, it is hard to see how your apartment does not need to be reorganized.
A former senior diplomat says more bloodshed in egypt is inevitable.
That critical deadline just hours away.
President morsi clinging to power for now.
? good morning, everyone.
A special good afternoon to those of you in egypt.
This is "surveillance." i am tom keene.
Alix steel is in for sara eisen.
We have scarlet fu.
A lot of economic data coming up.
Futures down, much off chinese data.
The euro really pulls back.
Substantial news in portugal.
Yields skyrocket in portugal as there are resignations from their cabinet over austerity and crude oil back over 100. gainers and losers.
When i look at some of the movers, it is red with individual company stocks falling, including shares of ford, pulling back after gaining almost three percent yesterday.
Very good numbers.
Industry sales rose to almost 16 million units.
We are almost there.
Best since november 2007. abercrombie & fitch gaining by almost four percent yesterday.
The news flow this wednesday, just extraordinary.
Portugal, a delay in the affordable care act, edward snowden breed -- edward snowden.
Ian bremmer with us, also jp edgar's. egypt is in search of leadership.
Where is it?
To the extent there is an ideological center in egypt, the brotherhood was pretty much occupying it.
There are a strong sophist -- more conservative.
They have over 10% popularity create -- popularity.
They like that it in shrines sharia.
On the other side, yet the secularists, much more like what you see in turkey.
There is nothing that will bridge these folks if the brotherhood is gone.
There is no george washington.
You had mubarak.
They have thrown him out.
A military has support, but the military is not going to be able to come back and win elections.
The best case and are for egypt right now is pakistan.
It is a series of very weak governments that don't hold while the military is in the background and it is what is ensuring stability.
It is not economic growth in egypt anytime soon.
We need a stable egypt in the broader middle east.
Talk of a sustainable for the long-term, what can you tell tell us about the military?
We know they are very close to the united states.
There continues to be a lot of coordination between the department of defense and the egyptian military.
They have maintain workable relationships with israel on security, on issues like syria and gaza in particular, even though you have a muslim brotherhood government.
The baseline of how egypt will interrelate with other countries from a security perspective is not going to change.
The governments of this country, some 70 million people, it's large economy will fall apart for it the one things -- fall apart.
I see no circumstances under which the suez canal is not going to be passable.
Immediately you think, the suez canal oil spikes.
To be fair, it is not just egypt.
Syria, turkey, big pipelines there.
The spike yesterday has come on the back of the suez and that is just -- the video is extraordinary.
I want to talk about the role of the military within egypt right now.
David gardner saying, there is no such thing as a liberal coup d'etat.
He writes the inability of the muslim brothers to emerge from the data comes of the state is no excuse for their opponents to fling themselves into military arms.
To mock as he needs democrats.
Do you agree?
But they were not ready for democracy.
I love democracy, but when you democracy in palestine and hamas comes in and gaza, it is because economically, you have no capacity for hamas to actually or for anyone to run that territory.
The same problem is true in egypt.
There economy has been in freefall.
The muslim brothers have been good at local charities and community organization, but did not know how to run a government.
We see in confidence -- in confidence.
Morsi came out yesterday said, look, i am a constitutionally enshrined legitimate leader and i am willing to shed blood for this.
Most of the egyptian people, including over 20 million supposedly have signed this petition that the rebels, the opposition is circulating, they are done with the results of that democratic election.
Is there a new more side that 30% of the egyptian people could get the hind?
Reqs not yet.
-- not yet.
Morsi was not known until the brotherhood got behind him.
Many cabinet members have already distanced themselves and resigned because they don't want to be under house arrest.
The greatest likelihood is they will split.
I think it was a food right in tunisia is how we started the arab spring.
We went like this.
Is there any risk of an arab summer?
I think we're seeing it in that it is long and hot.
You're not seeing dominoes.
Egypt as opposed to syria and opposed to what you see across the gulf states, it is not sunni versus shia.
It is classically economic resistance to an authoritarian state.
Social middle classes that could not take it anymore.
Unfortunately, there was not the international support for the new egyptian government to help with them on their feet.
They were nowhere near ready to govern absent the support.
The 48-hour military ultimatum expires around 11:00 a.m. eastern time eastern time, so we will be following that.
What shall we look for?
How more site -- how morsi gives up power and are there those around that will try to resist.
The interior ministry has already given up.
The last 45 hours have shown as he prefers doing it the hard way.
Very valuable, thank you, ian bremmer.
We're going to talk about the tech world when we come back at the guy who led the xbox division, moving over to zynga.
Can he bring success to online gambling?
? good morning.
I cannot wait to get out the door.
Tom keene joined by scarlet fu and alix steel is in for sara eisen.
I am hopefully on the road at 3:00 p.m. i hope to be out at 9:50 9.30. the news flow we have today is extraordinary.
I thought it would be a dead day and i was wrong, wrong, wrong.
A very busy day.
Let's get to some top stories.
The obama ministration delays are crucial provision of its signature health care law.
The government will postpone enforcement of the so-called clear mandate until 2015. companies with 50 or more workers can save as much as $3000 per employee if they do not offer affordable insurance.
-- can be fined as much as $3000 per employee if they do not offer affordable insurance.
Portugal, triggers a selloff.
We have been talking about bond yields soared as much as eight percent.
S&p cut the credit rating by three european bank saying uncertain market conditions threaten their businesses.
Those are your bloomberg top headlines.
The single best chart today, hot dogs and bananas.
It is off the axis.
What do we have?
How connected the world is.
The chart from the united nations report on millennium development gold showing mobile subscriptions, the white line, and internet users, the yellow line.
Mobile phones at the much higher pace.
Here is it gets interesting.
We will reveal the growth in global population, the blue line.
Global penetration will reach 96% by the end of the year.
People often have more than one cell phone subscription, but you have to say this trend has profound impact on how social movement like the arab spring, egypt uprising, the protests in turkey and indonesia plays out.
Ian bremmer with us.
In the last 24 hours, what we have seen from this is extraordinary on these edward snowden.
Economist look at this chart and say, we can reduce poverty and look at the consumers we can sell to.
Political scientist look at this and say, wow, look at the extraordinary demand of accountability, such a larger piece of the world's population will have on government that historically have not needed to respond to the constituencies in real time in such a direct way.
That is what is playing out today in brazil and turkey and egypt.
Especially as you skip over several levels of technology and go straight to mobile phones.
I call it the twitter vigilantes and management will have a plan.
Who cares about their plan if that lightspeed it changes?
Now that they have opened the door and started their twitter account and their consumers get involved, they faced the response they get when they make a mistake.
If anything happens, there is this flood of outpouring at that time.
Comedies are not used to responding to their consumers in that way -- companies are not used to responding to the consumers in that way.
Crisis management will be the new growth industry.
The person responding to her twitter, are they just trying to assuage as a single consumer to make you happy or are they relaying your information?
Emerging markets been the growth driver, and low cars -- low-cost smartphones, nokia going into the low cost in an attempt to be relevant once again in mobile phones so taking advantage of that trend by unveiling three new phones today for consumers who want to connect to the internet.
They start at $68 and will begin shipping this quarter.
They come with a nokia browser that compresses data, making it cheaper for the user.
They are trying to reach the people we were just talking about.
Who is going to buy it?
The developed world.
No, the undeveloped world, the emerging world.
To you by that?
I think they will buy cheap phones.
In india you have the problem with the nano.
Too many people were causing problems for the cheap cars in the neighborhood.
It was not a status symbol.
Here it is really intriguing to the market.
It is less a question of status and emma i can be -- status, and i can be a consumer in the market.
I think nokia and other firms are right to get in cheap and early.
Crocs coming up, we will talk about the link between what is going on with companies and these changes spurred on by shareholders.
Management shakeups, they work or they don't. the latest restructuring is at zynga.
? this is "surveillance." i am scarlet fu.
In today's company news, the pressure is on michael dell to suite his bid.
Shareholders leaning against the attempted takeover of the pc maker unless he increases his offer.
The future of dell is predicted to be decided with a shareholder vote on july 18. the ready global not likely to raise its bid.
It made a parliamentary bid last month but voted to strike a deal to buy the german cable company later.
Bmw closes in on mercedes-benz.
Posting a 25% gain in shipments in june.
Mercedes lead was cut to just 1500 vehicles as the two german automakers battle to see who will sell the most luxury cars this year.
That is today's company news.
The markets are really turning.
I thought it would be a quiet day.
Forget about that with the economic news, some real challenges within the market area and -- market.
The darling of electronic, microsoft success with xbox 360 emma -- success, the jury is out.
Don metric is charged with the salvation of zynga.
Jp eggers, is it his exit from microsoft or his entrance at zynga, which are you focused on?
Quarks i think the going to zynga is probably the more interesting part for you and -- part three and he is ready to move on and the future of xbox is uncertain, but he is looking for how to this interesting the broken toy out there.
Is he a code writer?
Is he a product guy or a true manager?
Originally as a code writer and moved into the product space.
The real manager part i think is the open question that we will see.
He has been a good product visionary within microsoft as far as pushing the envelope with the new products that may or may not always hit.
He seems to be more of a product guy than a leader.
We don't know about the leadership role yet.
What is at the top of his to- do list at zynga?
For any company that needs to figure out what is going on and restructure, there is usually a problem in the core business and they need to identify how to get the cash to solve that problem.
At zynga, i'm not sure what the core is, what they will try to save and moved away from in order to achieve something.
They have not had big success financially on the game side, the mobile apps have done ok, but not great.
They have only had one big hit internally, and that is farmville.
What can he do to retain his employees?
It depends on what type of talent you're looking for.
At the coding level, they can find it easy enough.
He does the heavy lifting on the one and?
I think you will be the leader and marshall a team around the employees, but what are they going to make?
Each story is different.
He moves from 94,000 and microsoft to 3000 at zynga -- and declining.
What are the best practices of the managers that have one recently that mr.
Mattrick can use at zynga?
I think it comes back to identifying a clear core to the business.
What is that core?
That is my biggest problem.
I can lay out a standard roadmap for when you restructure company, but i don't know what zynga is focused on.
The problem there, at the chance they can play a significant role other than a technology supplier to the big casinos who will run the lobbying efforts, completely run where access to games will come out, it is very limited.
Is it a big enough market?
It might be.
You mentioned zynga is no longer the number one source for facebook games.
It is struggling with the mobile apps.
The problem is, it does not really own its own platform.
I think that is a huge issue.
Running a platform or you have advertisers or companies on one side and users on another is one thing.
Zynga is in the exact same position trying to sell advertising on one side and attract users here, but they don't own the platform.
I have no clue where the story is in six months.
I admit, i don't either.
Let's take a first look at photos making news today.
Are you hot?
They are in the southwest.
The brutal heatwave not letting up.
These are people in las vegas escaping the heat.
Is it weird i kind of like that?
It is weird.
It is dry heat.
You it feels pretty good in the pool.
Our next shot, a throwback from the 1940s. the official beginning of the dog days of summer according to the old farmer's almanac.
It refers to the most hot it's -- hottest and humid days.
The romans referred to it as a dog because they refer to the largest start serious.
-- star cyrius.
It is so bright.
It is light years away.
As we are all in the twitterverse universe, so our animals.
The tweeting honey badger from the zoo in south africa.
I'm not kidding.
A computer tweets on his behalf by monitoring his motions.
We ripped away from your family vacation.
Thank you so much for being here.
Ian bremmer, jp eggers.
Coming up, the ceo of disney discussion.
Previewing jobs as well.
? this is "bloomberg surveillance."" two days o f data as america with the fireworks of friday's jobs report.
Robert eiger extend his reign over the magic kingdom.
His disney coming up dry in the quest for the next ceo?
-- robert iger?
Time warner employees may learn they have to leave iconic headquarters.
Just a couple of blocks away from broadway.
The pain to go west.
Good morning, everyone.
This is bloomberg "surveillance." i am tom keene.
July 3. joining me this morning scarlet fu and alix steele.
Joining us is media partner porter did.
Been in the business for 30 years and we welcome him this morning.
-- porter bibb.
We're picking the brains of ethan harris, head of global economic research at bank of america merrill lynch.
Everything you need to know before friday's jobs report.
A very busy day on this july 3. overnight the store you need to know.
The euro area services output contracting more than estimated in june.
In portugal, the foreign affairs minister quit in protest of the government policy.
This comes after the country's chief finance minister to step down earlier in the week.
In asia more bad news there.
We have a lot of economic data here in the u.s.. this is the head of the july 4 holiday.
Looking at the nba -- mba mortgage applications.
We will measure adp, how many jobs were added in june.
8:30 initial jobless claims.
No one can start the vacation earlier.
The market closes today at 1:00. squeezing thursday's economic data and to today.
Two times as much data.
Going to company news.
The busy morning.
The pressure is on michael dell to sweeten his bid.
Institutional shareholder services is leaning against his attempted takeover of the pc maker unless is he increases to $13.65 a share offer.
The future of dell will be decided with a shareholder vote on july 18. prudential is challenging the government's finding that it poses a potential risk to the financial system.
They have requested a hearing to make its case.
General electric's ge capital were slapped with the risk label but both said they will not appeal.
Bloomberg has learned that apple and time warner cable are close to a deal.
The agreement would give cable subscribers access to cable channels on access tv.
A deal could be announced within a few months.
The first between apple and the cable company.
The bombshell last night.
A big change to the president's signature health-care law.
The administration announced it will delay enforcing a provision of the law requiring businesses with 50 or more full-time employees to provide coverage for workers or pay a penalty.
Hans nichols is with us from washington.
He joins us from the washington news bureau.
Day two of the announcement.
What will be the white house to do this today?
They will clean up on what the effects are for the rest of the law going forward.
Some question about how this change will affect the individual mandate.
Say you are an employee at a restaurant and work more than 30 hours per week, the cut off.
You are at a restaurant group that employs more than 50 employees.
You did not to get insurance now because there is a delay but are still required under the individual mandate.
When you look at the company's better in the 50-200 range, about 10,000 companies out there.
That is to this was designed at.
Companies are reducing hours in anticipation of this, or they just stay under the but the person limit like to see in france.
The white house did not want to see any gaming of the mandate.
I totally agree with anecdotal evidence.
Will this be an adjustment to the program, or will they completely reconstruct the business portion of the affordable care act?
To listen to the business community today and overnight, they think they smell blood and they can totally rewrite the provision.
The white house is saying not so fast, you just a year to get your books in order.
The reporting requirements are more onerous.
This is still going to be implemented.
Very hard to say.
This is a big setback for the administration in terms of hitting all the deadlines.
We just do not know how it will affect the other markers, the other requirements in the bill.
For the opponents of the reform, the speaker says this is a first step to acknowledging it is a bad idea.
The story will continue throughout the day.
July 2, lazy -- boom, there is.
To go perfect because we have even harris here with us to preview jobs day.
-- perfect because we have ethan harris with bank of america merrill lynch to preview jobs day.
Han talking about the idea of employers reducing staff to not play -- not pay the insurance.
Have you seen an effect?
I think the effect was small.
Obviously companies working 35 hour weeks would reduce them to 29 hours.
More part-time workers and more full-time -- less full-time workers and more part-time.
I do think implementation was making small businesses very nervous.
It might have slowed things down a little bit going into year end.
You have absolutely nailed the less than robust economic growth in america.
But this is the overlay of all the data today, what we see on friday, and as we go into this summer, the idea of the unemployment rate is nowhere acceptable for anyone including the medical care advisers for the president.
There's a lot of talk about a strong economy.
I think that next year maybe we get a much better economy.
Right now, you still have a very weak global backdrop.
The u.s. economy does not look that great either.
The job market has looked a little bit better.
A sub-2% economy.
You flat out disagree with chairman ben bernanke on the idea of tapering?
What i think is he jumped the gun.
In a press conference he said here is the plan.
He should have waited a few months, which until you are confident that the economy is on a stronger bass.
I do not disagree with the general strategy, but i think they made a tactical error jumping the gun.
Ethan harris with us.
I really want to talk about wage growth or lack thereof.
A data check.
Terrific news flow.
Equities - 9. 10-year-old -- and-year yield 2.44%. portugal and great tumult.
I year yields.
A weaker euro.
A little bit higher oil.
Egypt has little to do with the movement in oil this morning.
A big week for media nuns -- news.
Tribune going into television.
We have porter bibb with us for the hour.
He has been the business forever.
We also have the headline that bob iger with disney is not going anywhere soon.
Which headline is more important?
I think the consolidation in the television industry is the most important piece of news this week.
Tribune becoming the biggest owner of television stations in the world, but two weeks ago there was a merger.
That consolidation that happened first a couple of years ago and radio is virtually over now.
Not that many independent local stations next.
That is gathering pace at the sense that you either get gobbled or you gobble up.
Are you buying a dinosaur?
To go five years ago local television was a dinosaur.
What happened was two things.
You cannot come monetized local news.
Secondly, political advertising turned out to be a multi billion dollar bonanza.
We will come back.
Porter bibb with us.
Good morning, everyone.
Bloomberg "surveillance." i'm tom keene.
The president makes a sharp adjustment last night in his affordable care act.
He even calls it obama care.
On the phone a harsh critic of the representation of small business.
I think it must be a good morning for you.
Why is small business celebrating this pause by the obama administration?
I have not seen too many champagne corks go off, but certainly a relief because we have more time to figure out what this thing looks like.
This is staunch -- such a monstrous bill.
So much uncertainty about what this will look like when it finally plays out.
The fact that they delays -- the way it really increases that.
They cannot figure out how to get this thing done.
It will be very uneven and rough.
It is not surprising that up to 40 percent of the others out there say they are just sitting tight until they see how this really plays out.
Hans nichols in washington.
Strong at it -- anecdotal evidence of small business adjusting to this by sending a note.
What have you actually seen as a reaction of small business to the 50 employees limit?
It is hard to tie things directly to that.
The most recent survey said the small firms cut employment a lot.
-- cut employment a little bit.
So one could blame it on a lot of things, but certainly the health care act is a big cloud in the future here.
There have been some surveys of small businesses out there that report that as many as 20 percent have actually cut back hours and employment.
That is a big number, a huge number.
The national federation of independent business.
This truly is a bombshell.
No other way to put it.
Does this give more time to shut down the law or adapt to it?
My anecdotal evidence is over his dead body is he doing this.
He wants to support employees.
Is the affordable health care afterct in trouble?
We want to know what you have to say.
Coming up, we have a number for you, $225 million -- that is how much disney spent on "the lone ranger." bob iger's challenges as he stays on at disney.
Coming up this morning, gramm was theneston will join betty.
-- graham weston.
Coming up at 8:00 on bloomberg television.
Futures - 8. dow futures - 7. a lot of news coming up.
-- economic data coming up.
I am tom keene.
Joined by scarlet fu and alix steele.
Guest host for the entire hour is porter bibb.
Extended top headlines this morning.
Lot of news happening this morning.
The clock is ticking and egypt.
Just a few hours the military- imposed deadline will expire.
He has bowed to say on as president despite calls for resignation.
Clashes between supporters and opponents have killed 23 people in the past day.
A crisis in portugal after the country's foreign minister resigns.
The resignation came a day after portugals own a finance minister quit.
The move triggered a sell-off in the benchmark stock index but fell more than 6%. bond yields soaring.
Sports, the first no-hitter of the season by homer bailey from the cincinnati reds.
He threw the last no-hitter last season back on september 28, 2012. those are your top headlines.
What a great way to cap off the first half of the baseball season.
How sad that sara was not there to see it.
We move onto friday's jobs report.
Bloomberg television and radio will have complete coverage friday morning where we will go beneath the headline numbers and what it means for americans.
Ethan harris chief economist at bank of america of merrill lynch.
Little gain of your paycheck.
This fourth of july it decidedly not a robust economy.
Let me start with and i have heard from a number of people, when does this get fun again?
When do we get the american economy that we use to know?
I think we're getting close.
We're working our way through a fiscal shock.
I do think that next year is the beginning of things getting a little bit better out there.
Right now still stuck in the mud.
You have been so debt on about your cautioned of exuberance.
Optimists crew says we will get there sooner rather than later.
What specifically do they get wrong?
I think they're looking past did near-term pain.
It is true we have a solid recovery in the housing market.
The job market is looking a little bit better as well.
If you look at the broader economy, gdp growth under 2% for the third quarter in a row.
So we're facing a very slow recovery right now.
The first book essonne ben bernanke.
Here is the ben bernanke single mandate now.
This is why the pros are looking at today's data and friday's data -- the movement of the unemployment rate.
harris and nowhere near where it was in 2007 and 2006. we have a long way to go to getting a full recovery.
I think the fed understands that.
They are telling the markets we will only raise interest rates and cut back on quantitative easing if we see a sustained recovery.
I think they have been a little bit early in calling for that, but they understand we have a long way to go and fixing the economy.
How much growth do we have to see in the second half of the year to even meet the growth target?
What is the fed seeing that you are not?
I think what has happened in recent months is odd.
The data comes out of looks ok but then they revise the numbers.
First quarter is only 1.8%. originally 2.5%. i think they need to see the 2.5%-3% data to be convinced we're really in a strong recovery.
It is not happened yet.
I do hope by the end of the year and into next year we will see that kind of growth.
It is just not here yet.
Is the jobs report friday going to move markets?
I would say everyone on wall street is praying for a neutral number.
A neutral number would be anything between 150,000- 200,000. that is what we are expecting and the consensus is expecting.
Are you going to be in office?
Will ethan harris be in office tomorrow?
My office will have sand in it.
Where is the american paycheck going?
All the e-mail that i get is this great for 47 people in manhattan, other than that, not happening.
When the paychecks go up?
To go i think it will take some time.
-- i think it will take some time.
Give it a couple of years.
Get a real recovery.
Consumer data seems to be holding up.
That is the puzzling part about all of this.
That has been one of the news stories.
Despite what has been a pretty weak economy, the consumer has on in there.
That has prevented a much weaker first half of it could have been.
We're facing big consolidation in washington.
Coming back friday to ethan harris.
We will call him to get his perspective on jobs.
Coming up, business week profiles the business between polythene -- paula deen.
That is the cover of the latest "businessweek." that is our story next.
This is bloomberg "surveillance." ? this is bloomberg "surveillance." i am scarlet fu joined by tom keene and alix steele.
Markets are really on the move this morning.
Betty liu will have the economic data for you in the next hour.
Futures - 8. euro-dollar has been weaker.
Crude 101.45. technical issues between bre nt and west texas.
We spoke to him a few days ago in cairo.
48 hour ultimatum that ends in hours.
What do you assume you will see in the next two, three, or four hours?
That military ultimatum is looming large.
The crowds are growing.
If and the military is on their side and the military will get him to step down.
Moris si in the speech last night rejected that.
He blamed the unrest on remnants of the regime and said he was willing to die for his presidency.
He has really set up a showdown for the expiration of the ultimatum in just 3.5 hours.
When you look at the military presence away from the tv cameras and square, how to -- how visible is the egyptian military?
You really do not see them right now.
They are spread out around strategic areas.
They're not on the square.
Very little military presence.
There is some police presence, but generally supported the protesters.
5:00, the military will suggest their own road map.
We do not know what that means.
They remain very big.
Will it mean us civilian council to run the country?
It means new elections to replace him.
It is all extremely vague.
In theory they will save something then.
-- will say something then.
What is the make above the crowd in the square?
Islamic, secular, both?
This lummox islami -- islamists are in the camp of president morsi.
People behind me come from all walks of life.
Men, women, children.
There are conservative muslims in there.
It is really all across the board.
Many people simply do not want the brotherhood to take over the country.
They feel that he and his party are imposing values on the country.
To go live heard reports that 23 people have died overnight.
-- we have heard reports that 23 people have died overnight.
There were clashes overnight.
At least 16 people killed around cairo university.
There were deaths elsewhere in the area where the pyramids are.
It does not bode well.
It could be a sign of things to come.
If the military were to step in the court depose the president.
But military has said it will flood the streets with supporters.
We could see a full-scale civil war.
Coming up on the next few hours of the ending of the ultimatum is the only way to put this.
Ian bre mmer remarkably cautious about a good outcome.
We heard yesterday that that was the worst case scenario for the country like egypt going through this structural shift.
When you look at this and the struggle, i have not seen much market action.
We saw the egyptian stock market do better, but you do not see it with an oil.
You do see it in oil, but ian bremer said it was misplaced.
Wti is moving up.
That action has nothing to do with egypt.
Take out we are seeing stockpiles rise.
Company news right now.
New york is taking a look at how wal-mart and home depot paid employees.
They are among a group of employees the state attorney general is investigating for the use of pre-paid cards.
Fees are sometimes deducted when the workers go to withdraw cash.
And like to raise the offer for john global.
Liberty made a preliminary bid last month.
They later struck a deal to buy the cable company.
Bmw cars -- closes in on mercedes benz.
The results cut our cities lead to just 1500 vehicles as the german car makers battle to see who will sell the most luxury cars this year.
That is today's company news.
Good morning, everyone.
It is bloomberg "surveillance." all of our interviews are at bloomberg tv plus, the ipad, and the android.
Terrific sight, bloomberg videos with so much of the great in sight of our guests.
We will talk about the business of paula deen.
Add butter is the basic theme.
That is right.
The profile of bloomberg "mi businessweek." the likes to let wrote the piece and joins us now.
-- felix gillette e wrote the piece and joins us now.
An amazing story.
This is a woman who started the business with a $200 investment.
She did catering that led to a successful restaurant, which led to media appearances and her own tv show.
She became a celebrity endorsers.
Basically a great job of branding herself.
Her name became an adjective that basically meant southern comfort.
If you put her name on a mattress, it is a comfortable matches.
Put her name on a sofa, a comfortable sofa.
The problem is she is facing a lawsuit from a former employee at one of our restaurants.
There was an allegation about when she used a racial slur in the past.
In the end it makes it very uncomfortable.
All of the corporate partners are now abandoning her.
Food network is really the central of everything.
You look at television and media properties.
This was really the center of her business.
The network is so influential in building her up, and now tearing her down.
One of the ironies of the situation is not only is she using corporate sponsorship, but the woman suing her is being sued by paula deen of having no standing.
Her lawyers say we get to throw this case out.
It is really a non-issue on a legal basis on us -- but on a branding basis, she may be over.
We saw martha stewart bounceback and she was in jail.
What will it take for her to reinvented this time around?
America always loved a second chance.
What will it take for her to rebound?
The problem she is facing is americans are willing to forgive certain bings.
A lot of times people come back for that.
Racial issues are harder to overcome, especially when you get back to the fact that paula was a national brand and everything was about her hospitality.
How comfortable everything was.
This is a nasty, uncomfortable situation.
I have never seen her show.
I get the image.
She has a terrific, local support group.
You have that in the article.
Are they so strong that they can help her come back?
To go there are a lot of by-card fans.
They think she will do fine in the south.
Her restaurants were packed over the weekend saying she is getting a very unfair deal.
At the same time, the brands.
That is where the money is coming from.
She said basically the restaurants do not make any money.
Any idea how much the empire is worth?
She does not even know.
In the deposition she said how much -- is that how much is the company netting come into said i really do not know.
Now available on your iphone and ipad as well.
There is the cover from last week.
This is mcdonald's. a good issue definitely.
I never knew this information about her.
Coming up, our number for you is 2.4 million square feet.
That is the footprint of time warner's new headquarters that they're planning on manhattan's far west side.
The booming market coming up next on bloomberg "surveillance." ? good morning, everyone.
This is bloomberg "surveillance." i am tom keene.
Always joined by scarlet fu and alix steele.
How big is the grill?
The fire department comes out.
Fish, burgers, hot dogs, you name it.
Before we get to that, we will have graham weston on.
He wrote this book called "unstoppable." it is about what this country needs to create jobs.
He went to navy seals -- everywhere around the world to find out what it is that gets people to invest in themselves selling because a lot of people will drink beer and liquor.
There is a hangover pill now that will hear your hangover.
-- cure your hangover.
Are the side effects of that?
There are no side effects.
It is a jolt of caffeine.
They're going national.
They will be in cvs drug stores around the country.
We will see with economic data at 8:00 this morning.
The news is there.
We have to start with deutsche bank have indicated to open lower after s&p cut the credit rating to a from a =. +. these are big european lenders.
They are among the most exposed to the proposed rules that could cut revenues from trading and investment-banking operations.
Alco what reports earnings on monday.
China's biggest non-state aluminum producer is boosting or maintaining production.
They have been shutting down.
Other companies not responding in the same way, adding to the oversupply in the market, which has been disastrous.
Hard to make money.
The full report.
Blackberry shares continued their slump.
The share has already fallen for 43 days.
Currently $9.65 after it supported a surprise loss.
A lot of people saying there will be a viable contender to apple and google.
This lackluster demand.
Quickly, overstock.com cut to underperform from buy.
Futures -10. now - 8. we'll come back a little bit.
Coming up, 253 offices in 60 countries.
Helping to reshape the manhattan skyline.
We speak to the chairman of the state of commercial real-estate in new york coming up on bloomberg "surveillance." bloomberg television, radio, internet and your tablets.
? the morning, everyone.
Bloomberg "surveillance." -- good morning.
One of my favorite people on the planet how word lindzon, the spirit of start-ups.
-- howard lindzon.
He will make a rare, guest appearance with us on friday.
I will be here tomorrow.
Alix steele is in today for sara eisen.
We are thrilled that she is here.
Getting to company news.
Largest public offering for asia the share.
The japanese offer drink company makes soda and coffee.
Shares gained more than 1 percent of the first day of trading in tokyo.
Nokia introducing cheaper handsets for faster connection to the internet.
They let them connect to speedier third-generation networks.
They are priced at $68 and expected to start shipping this quarter.
Trying to rebound from a 28% slump in sales of the first quarter.
Standard and poor's credit -- cutting the credit break ranking of three banks.
That is today's company news.
This is going to be done.
Go west, young man.
Time warner holds court in new york city at the icon time warner center.
They intend to move almost to new jersey.
The trek for employees from central manhattan out west to hudson yards will cause agonies.
Jet fucus, his limo will probably get lost.
-- jeff bucus.
This is a titanic.
Edge enormous project to move the company.
-- it is an enormous project to move the company.
It absolutely is.
It is a major decision for the bottom line of major corporations.
Moving west is the trend because you have large efficiencies and the city with 20 million square feet of hudson square yards is really pushing it.
The triumph of the development over the railroad yards on the shores of lake michigan.
Old rail yards.
If you look at his store construction of manhattan, this is not the first time we have built raiyardsover over rail yards, but it is unique in terms of the size of the platform.
I want to bring in porter bibb.
This is a big commitment on the part of the country -- company that goes through with it.
The company is hiring and only getting betteigger.
Basically time warner is downsizing from the present time warner center, which has been called an indulgence, to the hudson yards.
It will be less expensive because there is low costs.
I have it all wrong here.
Take a basically it is allowing time warner to take all of the unit spirited takeovers.
They are getting out of a very expensive real-estate deal that was really the legacy of steve ross who wanted to be the iconic time warner center that they occupy right now.
Good time warner do for hudson yards in the 1930's which no one ever wants to go to what it did for the circle?
That is the hope.
I can tell you that the whole of hudson yards which is anchored by two major projects i think will both be extremely attractive for a number of reasons, including the fact that companies can downsize and find more efficiencies, but also because it is at the hub of the new transportation center.
They are a block away from penn station, the most travelled north american public.
The most ugly of the.
You are certainly at the heart of what i think we will look at as the new transportation hub.
Is this just assumed it will be a success?
To go i think the whole area will be a success because there has been so much invested in it.
-- i think the whole area will be a success because there has been so much invested in it.
Big cities are winning right now.
They are winning for any number.
I can come up with economic theories.
I think you have nailed it this is about where people want to live it.
What is the perfect example of what we're trying to accomplish on the west side of manhattan?
Is a canary wharf in london?
Canary wharf i will shy away from as the perfect example, because they have to wait for transportation to ride to be successful.
This is opposite.
What is driving success here i think is the urbanization.
Talk to me about the changing landscape.
Five years ago when i think about the district's downtown.
To go there has absolutely been -- this has absolutely been a time changer.
Now you have seen tech companies pile on.
Their headquarters companies have been relocated to manhattan, not just the back office.
We have had a see change.
We also have a change in your business.
You come out of duke.
What did you see for the next 12 months?
I do not think there is an apartment for rent in new york.
Rent is up 5% as well.
Is this a 2006 boom?
If you look at the current investment sales more recently we have seen some extraordinary pricing.
We think that is all about new york and capital.
I will give you downside.
I walked around the streets and there is first floor vacant.
To go retail is at the peak of pricing.
This is challenging.
Simply because of the price it we're seeing is as hard for the mom and pop's to move to new york.
We have to create a balance for that, too.
What is this like 2050 the project finally gets done?
We will still be here.
Manhattan west will rise.
We will answer -- five years.
Time warner about of extension on their lease.
We will see.
We will answer the twit