Think of the communication, i believe janet yellen is quiet, understated, can we have a quiet and understated chairman?
I think janet would be an excellent chairman for the federal reserve.
We have had different kinds of communication strategies in the past, and i think janet will bring her own style.
I think it is appropriate for the time that she will be facing.
Just think about the different styles that alan greenspan had, who was often hard to decipher.
Janet, i think, will use this position to continue the recovery and to make the u.s. a stronger economy.
Alan, what you think janet yellen's number one challenge is going to be at the helm of the federal reserve?
Obviously the key issue facing be fed is when does it start to taper, and that is an issue that janet has been very much involved in over the years.
Secondly, my own view is i think there should be some tweaks to the federal reserve's communication strategy.
I think too often the regional president has added to confusion rather than clarity.
That will be up to her to find her own style.
Let's get a point of distinction.
Alan krueger studying at harvard university at the same time as richard clarida.
It is great to have alan krueger and richard clarida with us this morning.
Do you agree with your classmates at the presidents have been out of control, off the mark?
Wife they have been outspoken.
That adds the a lot of noise as well as some signals.
As usual, i think alan is right.
I think the communication process -- indeed governor stein said this last week that the communication process, especially for qe, needs to be improved.
Should we deny richard fisher a voice?
He was two years ahead of me, but i remember him very clearly because he played in a beatlemania group.
Thank you for reminding the world, alan.
I am going to bring up my agenda item year.
It is related to all of this, and it is the government shutdown.
We are engaged -- we are in day nine that the government has not been functioning as it normally does appear we are only eight ways -- eight days away from october 17, that's one treasury secretary jack lew says we will hit the debt ceiling if congress is about to rated.
President obama reiterating he will not negotiate on the full faith and credit of the u.s. don't you think he has to given the serious nature of the full faith and credit of the u.s. government debt?
I think he cannot give in to extortion.
This is blackmail.
The president has been negotiated with the congress.
The president did something which is unprecedented, he left his last offer to speaker boehner on the table.
You can find that on the web.
This is not a matter of negotiations -- it is a matter of avoiding the president being blackmailed.
I think the president is right to think that all his future successors as president would face an untenable situation if he were to give in to this type of extortion.
Looking ahead, does the government shutdown the twoo end?
Before the debt ceiling can be resolved to?
I think they're both causing unnecessary harm to our economy third from the standpoint of the economy, it would be better if cooler heads prevailed and government workers were allowed to return to work and provide the services that our economy needs them to provide tiered as far as the economy goes, we can weather a shutdown.
It is not something we need right now.
It is opposite of what we need right now.
But the debt ceiling could potentially cause catastrophic effects for our economy dirt bikes does what need to proceed the other?
-- for our economy.
Does what need to proceed the other?
Rex even imagine different scenarios with a end at a different time.
Most likely they and at the same time, which is unfortunate because that means we're stretching out the shutdown for lease another week if that were to happen.
Alan krueger and richard clarida, team effort question, do we know what normal is?
Not so much the pimco new normal, richard clarida, but yellen is going to get us to some kind of normal.
Where is the normal we are headed for?
We are heading over a number of years to the fed doing traditional monetary policy by raising or lowering in interest- rate and getting its balance sheet back to a more traditional level.
By the fed's own estimates, that will take at least five years from now.
Five years, alan krueger, do you agree on that timeline?
I do not want to give an exact port is on the number of years to think richard's definition is exactly right.
The new normal is going to be back to full implement, that is going to take some time.
I think we're headed in that direction.
I think it will be a variant of -- interesting intellectual question.
That is just what i was going to ask, what will the unemployment rate have to be before it starts to feel normal, and janet yellen can make her move toward tapering or backing off of all of the accommodations?
Well, i think those are separate questions because i think that the tapering will start before we get to full employment, and i think it should start before we get to full employment because the way the monetary policy affects the economy.
The estimate of the congressional budget office is that full employment is an unemployment rate of around 5.5%. that seems plausible to me.
I think that the long-term unemployed are putting less pressure on the labor market and the economy overall.
We may start to see a little bit normal in terms of wage growth earlier than you might think because the short-term unemployment rate is back down close to his horrible levels.
Right, alan krueger, let's leave it there.
He is that princeton university, the former chairman to the president obama council of economic advisers.
And my agenda this morning, away from washington, over to cupertino, apple will update its lineup of ipads on october 22 according to people familiar with the news.
Remember, apple invented this tablet category.
It is not exist before apple came out with it.
It now makes up 20% of its revenue.
It has got to come out with something a little bit more modestly priced but still maintain the edge of new technology.
Amazon's kindle fire in google's various devices.
Do you see many other tablets beside ipads out there you?
I'm not sitting service, but i see a lot of people using the kindle fire.
October 22. put it on the calendar.
All three children's phones have broken in the last three days.
What a coincidence.
Thank you, richard clarida of
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